• Budgets What is the spending ceiling?

  • Fiscal Policy Council, Montero offers communities a non-binding deficit path of 2.2% for next year

The

Government will shoot the total spending ceiling for 2021

to 196,097 million, which will be the highest figure ever recorded in the country and a spectacular increase of 53% compared to last year.

And it will do so one year after the economy has suffered its greatest collapse in peacetime and which, according to official estimates that have also been published today, will

rise to 11.2%

.

Two milestones that will go down in the economic and social history books of the country and that are directly marked by the coronavirus pandemic.

The new economic forecasts prepared by the Ministry of the Economy significantly worsen those sent to Brussels last May.

The worst evolution of the health crisis and the serious economic problems have caused the official figure to go from 9.2% to 11.2%.

For next year,

the upturn in the macroeconomic table is 7.2%

, which shows that the recovery will be significantly more moderate than the collapse.

The Vice President of Economic Affairs, Nadia Calviño, however, wanted to convey that the situation will be better than indicated in the table since the one published this Tuesday is an "inertial scenario", in which the positive effects of the plans are not included European aid.

Adding up this effect, growth could be close to 10%.

"We expect strong growth in 2021 which can be given an additional boost if as a country we take advantage of community funds" and which will allow, according to Calviño, "

the economy to recover in 2022 to the levels prior to the outbreak of the pandemic

."

In addition,

the so-called deficit reference rate will be -11.7%

, a figure that is also higher than previously estimated, while for next year the estimated figure is -7.7%.

These figures do not represent deficit targets, since when the fiscal rules are suspended, the administrations do not have the obligation to comply.

But it does suppose a reference for the elaboration of the public accounts and to know the magnitude of the budgetary gaps.

The dark, very negative and alarming macroeconomic picture is completed with an unemployment forecast of 17.1% for this year that will

barely be reduced by two tenths in 2021

.

The increase in the total expenditure ceiling

For its part, setting the spending ceiling is an essential step in the process of preparing the General State Budgets (PGE);

It is defined, according to the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) as the budget management instrument through which, once the income for the year has been estimated, the budgetary expenditure that allows the fulfillment of the stability objective is calculated;

and the "notable" increase, as pointed out by the Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero,

is based on the funds that Spain will receive from Brussels within the economic reconstruction plan.

The homogeneous spending limit will be 136,779 million euros, which represents an increase of 7.2% compared to this year.

However, if the extraordinary transfers to communities and Social Security are added, the figure exceeds 168,000 million, 32% more.

And to all this we must add European funds, so that the aforementioned 196,097 million will be reached,

53% more and that is what the Government has called the total spending limit

.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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