Ensure the stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain and accelerate the formation of a new development pattern
——Interview with Liu Wei, President of Renmin University of China
Li Hualin, reporter of Economic Daily and China Economic Net
Since the beginning of this year, the central government has repeatedly proposed to promote the formation of a new dual-cycle development pattern, do a good job in the "six stability", implement the "six guarantees" task, and ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
So, what is the background to form the new development pattern?
What is the significance of the maintenance of the industrial chain and supply chain for the formation of a new development pattern?
On the basis of ensuring the stability of the industrial chain supply chain, how to improve the modernization level of the industrial chain supply chain?
To this end, the Economic Daily reporter interviewed Liu Wei, the president of Renmin University of China.
The formation of a double cycle has both historical foundations and practical needs
Reporter: The central government proposes to "promote the formation of a new development pattern with domestic and international cycles as the main body and mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles." What is the background for this?
Liu Wei: To form a new dual-cycle development pattern, we have both historical foundations and actual needs.
The foundation is manifested in the three aspects of "time, location, and harmony".
In terms of weather, the Chinese economy has entered a new stage of development after years of development.
We are still a developing country, a developing country where agricultural modernization, new industrialization, urbanization and informatization are accelerating.
In terms of geographical advantages, it is mainly reflected in the "big" of China's economy.
In terms of consumption, my country has 1.4 billion people, tens of millions of new people every year, more than 400 million middle-income groups, and a huge consumer group.
From the perspective of investment, my country is still in a period of accelerated development of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization. Whether it is infrastructure construction, fixed asset investment, or ecological environment investment, human capital investment in education, health, etc. has increased tremendously. potential.
People and aspects refer to the basic system advantages.
China's socialist market economic system can better combine the superiority of the socialist system with the efficiency of market allocation of resources, and it has strong counter-cyclical adjustment capabilities.
There is also a practical need to take the domestic cycle as the main body.
After the financial crisis, the world economy was in a downturn. Under the impact of the epidemic, the process of globalization was blocked. Some Western countries, led by the United States, took a series of measures to make the trade chain industrial chain formed between us and developed countries and even some developing countries in the past. Faced with blocking.
Therefore, we must begin to shift to the domestic cycle.
Of course, focusing on the domestic cycle does not mean opening up.
Not only opening up, but also opening up must be upgraded. With the “Belt and Road” as the starting point, a higher level of opening up will be formed under the new conditions, driving and leading the world economy more deeply, rather than passively following up.
An important part of forming a new development pattern
Reporter: What is the significance of the central government’s proposal of "guaranteeing the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain" for forming a new development pattern?
Liu Wei: "Ensuring the stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain" is one of the important contents of the "six stability and six guarantees". It was put forward under the background that my country has entered a new development pattern and faced a series of new problems.
At present, China's economic development has reached a new node and is in a period of important strategic opportunities.
China’s total GDP was close to 100 trillion yuan last year, and its per capita GDP has reached the level of 10,000 US dollars. It has never been closer to the goal of modernization than it is today.
At the same time, we are facing a series of new problems in the new stage of modernization.
From a domestic perspective, it is facing a continuous decline in economic growth.
From reform and opening up to 2009, my country's GDP maintained an average annual growth rate of nearly 10%. After 2010, the growth rate began to decline. After 2015, the GDP growth rate was below 7%.
Internationally, with the rise of China, certain Western countries, led by the United States, have adopted strategic and comprehensive obstacles, interference and even suppression, which has brought further difficulties, challenges and uncertainties to my country’s economic growth. .
Economic development has entered a new stage, and there is still a severe test, that is, whether we can overcome the "middle income trap."
How to overcome the "middle income trap"?
First of all, we must establish a new development concept and change the mode of development, from relying mainly on factor input to drive economic growth to relying on factor efficiency and total factor productivity to drive economic growth, so as to realize the economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development.
Secondly, we must realize the transformation of development mode by constructing a modern economic system, and the modern economic system is driven by deepening the supply-side structural reform as the main line.
The basis of the current transformation of my country's development mode is to increase production efficiency, increase factor efficiency and total factor productivity.
Therefore, "guaranteeing the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain" is not an isolated industrial and supply-side technical issue, but a very important part of my country's transformation of development mode, deepening of supply-side structural reforms, building a modern economic system, and reshaping the advantages of economic development. An indispensable part.
Improving the modernization level of industrial chain supply chain with innovation
Reporter: In July this year, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed to improve the modernization level of the industrial chain and supply chain when presiding over the entrepreneurial forum.
What should be done to improve the modernization level of the industrial supply chain?
Liu Wei: When we talk about recycling, we actually mean reproduction, which means that all links of the national economy should be unblocked.
The improvement of the modernization level of the supply chain of the industrial chain is to make the industry and the industry, and between the various links within the industry, be able to circulate and connect smoothly and form through market forces on the basis of higher quality and more competitiveness. The balance of total and structure between supply and demand.
From this perspective, the smooth flow and circulation of the industrial chain and supply chain on the basis of high level and high competitiveness is the market basis for the formation of a large domestic economic cycle. Without the smooth circulation of the industrial chain and supply chain, there will be no possibility of a large domestic cycle. .
So, how to improve the modernization level of the industrial chain supply chain and enhance the competitiveness of the industrial chain supply chain?
The main thing is to rely on innovation.
On the one hand, it is technological innovation. Relying on technological innovation to carry out structural upgrades and to fight the key core technology battle is not only the key to the formation of the domestic cycle as the main body, but also to get rid of the "stuck neck" of Western countries, increase the initiative in international competition, and promote domestic and international cooperation. The key to the cycle.
In this process, it is necessary to better play the role of the government’s top-level design, unified layout, and organization and coordination, as well as give full play to the main role of enterprises in technological innovation; it is necessary to consolidate basic research and accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements into actual productivity. Transformation: It is necessary to vigorously improve the ability of independent innovation, but also to persist in open innovation and strengthen international scientific and technological exchanges and cooperation.
Another aspect is institutional innovation.
In May of this year, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Improvement of the Socialist Market Economic System in the New Era", which is to reorganize and re-emphasize the comprehensive promotion of reforms and the improvement of the socialist market economic system.
In the future, through further institutional innovation, we will build an economic system that can give full play to the role of the market and the government, so as to achieve effective market mechanisms, vigorous micro entities, and a degree of macro-control.