Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967) receives this newspaper in his office in Tressis where he is chief economist and points out that his opinions do not link to the Popular Party of which he continues to be Secretary of the Economy in a role that he defines as an «advisor».

To what extent is the Spanish economy going to sink with the new confinements? The forecast so far is that the Gross Domestic Product will fall by 13.2%, but if new confinements are entered, it will worsen.

The damage adds to an already very weak economy

il and with 25% of companies on the verge of bankruptcy,

But without new confinements it will take longer to control the virus ...

The trade-off between health and the economy is false.

I am outraged that the Government is dedicated to blaming others, while in other countries they better control the pandemic and preserve the economy with clear and more effective measures without repression of citizens.

To what extent is European aid going to be key?

The Government trusts everything, like Zapatero in 2009, to European aid to solve its structural problems of spending and current deficit.

But there is a huge probability that they will not reach the maximum figures that have been said and, furthermore, they are not for current spending.

The new net European funds do not cover the deficit by any means

The ECB allows placing debt with a still low risk premium ...

The ECB's help is true, but it will not prevent a debt crisis, because it is creating a solvency problem.

Risk builds slowly, but then explodes quickly.

The Government is going at 200 per hour towards the cliff, but looks calmly in the rear view mirror, because it has not had an accident ... yet.

How long can the Treasury continue placing debt at this low interest rate?

It places it with the savings and support of taxpayers from all over Europe.

The dependence is absolute on the EU and on Germany in particular and I don't know how long it can last.

It already happened in 2011. The Government is playing the most dangerous strategy, that of being systemic to force the EU and the ECB to keep Spain in permanent rescue.

Greece already played that and lost.

It is a game in which citizens never win.

Will there be an "asymmetric vee" exit as Nadia Calviño says?

The asymmetric vee thing is ridiculous.

We are going to a stalemate at best with an unsustainable structural deficit.

The deficit is going to be 14.7% this year with a hole of 160,000 million that is not going to be offset by growth that is really a rebound.

Not even growing by 9% in 2021 -which is unlikely- the deficit would fall below 70,000 million.

The 2019 collection levels are not recoverable before 2024 and that being optimistic.

And plug the hole by raising taxes?

It is impossible to cover the deficit with a rebound and increase in taxes, because that does not work.

The main problem is that the damage to the tax base this year is irreparable with 100,000 companies destroyed.

And not everything is the fault of the coronavirus, many problems were already dragging,

So let's go to the rescue?

We are already in it.

Spain is going to need the biggest rescue in modern history and we are already in the first phase.

It is in which the EU gives us the benefit of the doubt to see if Spain goes back with growth.

In the second it will be already with demands when seeing that the growth with increased taxes that the Government intends does not work.

The third will be that Europe takes over with the measures that mark us.

But that would mean an adjustment in public accounts greater than in the previous crisis ...

So is.

It will take some adjustments never seen before.

Although Spain absorbs 50% of the EU solidarity mechanisms, it will still have an unsustainable deficit.

The only option is to cut expenses and they will have to be extensive cuts.

But then the Minister of Finance is right that taxes cannot be lowered ...

False.

Taxes should not be set according to what the government needs to collect, but what the economy needs.

It is a fallacy that you cannot lower taxes, because there is a deficit.

Especially in a country where less than average is collected, not because taxes are lower, but because companies are smaller and there is a lot of black economy.

The collection obsession stems from a confiscatory and extractive vision of the economy.

The Government wants to maintain expenses as if it were a good time, while it wants to collect taxes from the war economy.

That does put in danger what they pretend to protect, which is social spending.

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