The central bank operates flexibly to maintain stable liquidity——
There is not much pressure on cross-season funding
Near the end of the quarter, the People's Bank of China continued to increase its open market operations.
Statistics found that in September, except on the 15th, the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations on the remaining working days.
Among them, in addition to the conventional 7-day reverse repurchase operation, the central bank has also launched a 14-day reverse repurchase operation since September 18, and carried out 14 consecutive days of reverse repurchase operations in 10 working days, with a total amount of 770 billion yuan. Interest rates are maintained at 2.35%.
Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Financial Markets Department of China Everbright Bank, said that since late September, the spread between the 14-day and overnight markets has increased, indicating that the market has tight inter-season funds and that the lending between financial institutions has become more cautious.
From the perspective of the central bank's operating rhythm, net input volume, and market interest rate fluctuations, the central bank uses a variety of tools and flexible operations to ensure reasonable and sufficient market liquidity.
“Recently, DR014 (Interbank Pledged Repo 14-day interest rate) continued to rise. The central bank continued to carry out 14-day reverse repurchase operations, mainly taking into account the increased demand for funds caused by cross-quarter and long holiday factors. The demand for new funds at this stage also shows the willingness to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity." said Tao Jin, a senior researcher at the Suning Institute of Finance.
It is worth noting that since September 25, despite the central bank’s open market reverse repurchase, the funds have been in a state of net withdrawal for many days.
For example, on the 28th, 100 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expired on the same day, achieving a net liquidity return of 60 billion yuan; on the 29th, 200 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expired, achieving a net return of 100 billion yuan; on the 30th, 100 billion yuan When the reverse repurchase expired, a net return of 50 billion yuan was realized.
In this regard, some bank money traders believe that although the central bank’s open market operations have turned to net withdrawals since this week, after the previous vigorous investment, the cross-quarter funding needs of most institutions have basically been completed, and the overall cross-quarter funding is not too large. huge pressure.
The Sun Binbin team of Tianfeng Securities said that the liquidity of funds has improved in September, but it is still in a "tight balance" state.
In the second half of September, in order to stabilize the liquidity at the end of the quarter, the central bank continued to carry out reverse repurchase for 14 days, but the overall amount was not large. It can be seen that although the central bank does not want to be too tight, it does not intend to invest large amounts.
"Recently, there have been short-term fluctuations in market funds, but the overall market interest rate is at a historically low position, and market liquidity remains moderately loose." Zhou Maohua believes that market liquidity and the central bank policy curve are mainly affected by the domestic macroeconomic situation. The current domestic new crown pneumonia epidemic Effective control, timely and effective policy combinations, and steady economic recovery.
However, it must be noted that the domestic economic recovery is still uneven, and some industries have not yet escaped the impact of the epidemic; the external situation is still severe and complex, and the country still needs moderate monetary and financial support to stabilize market expectations.
Under the condition that domestic policies need to maintain a moderate total amount, more emphasis is placed on precise drip irrigation, guiding limited financial resources to the strategic emerging industries and the "three rural", small and micro private sectors and manufacturing sectors, and stimulating the vitality of micro entities.
The third quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank held on September 28 pointed out that a prudent monetary policy should be more flexible, appropriate, and precise, and comprehensively use and innovate multiple monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity.
At the same time, this regular meeting emphasized "promoting a significant reduction in comprehensive financing costs and guiding loan interest rates to continue to decline".
Zhou Maohua said that the central bank's description of policy effects and economic recovery at this regular meeting is more optimistic, indicating that prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate, giving full play to the role of structural tools and precise drip irrigation, implementing previous innovative direct tools, and guiding financial institutions to increase support for weak links .
Our reporter Yao Jin