Chinanews client, Beijing, September 29 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) After experiencing the hot market in July, from August to September, A-shares entered a shock consolidation phase. Recently, market willingness to trade has been sluggish, and trading volume has continued to decline.
On September 30, A shares will usher in the third quarter finale. Can the strong market reappear in the fourth quarter?
Faced with the weakness of A-shares before the holiday, should investors choose to "have coins in their hands and not panic in their hearts" or "boldly hold stocks and set sail after the holiday"?
Data map: stockholders in the securities business hall.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Wei Liang
Stockholders’ activity declined, and A-shares declined
Let's take a look at the performance of A shares in September.
Combining shows that since September, after the Shanghai Index lost 3,500 points on the upside, it started a shock downward path from above 3400 points. Although there were occasional strong performances, the overall performance was mediocre.
As of the close of September 29, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,24.36 points, a cumulative decline of 5% since the beginning of the month; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 1,2900.7 points, and the ChiNext Index closed at 2,563.38 points, with monthly cumulative declines of 6.23% and 6.05%, respectively. Lost the two major barriers of 2700 and 2600.
The Shanghai index daily chart.
Under the sluggish market, the volume of transactions in the two cities has shrunk significantly. The full-day turnover on the 29th was 545 billion yuan. The two previous trading days were 540.3 billion yuan and 569.4 billion yuan, a record low in the past four months.
The market is also facing the pressure of capital outflows. Last week (September 21st-September 27th), the northbound capital had a net outflow for 5 consecutive trading days. The cumulative net outflow amount was 24.710 billion yuan, which is the fifth single-week net outflow amount this year. high.
Regarding the continued outflow of northbound funds that many investors are worried about, Guotai Junan Securities said that the current A-shares sold by overseas investors represented by the northward are mainly due to the decline in risk appetite in the uncertain environment and the risks implied by the high valuation of its heavy holdings. Insufficient compensation.
"There are three main reasons for the market adjustment before the National Day: first, the seasonal tightening of funds has led to a shrinking market volume; second, the absolute gainers lock in the income for the year in advance; third, overseas risk events are prone to occur during long holidays, which will cause the market. Disturbance.” Huaxi Securities concluded.
Should investors hold stocks or currency for the holidays?
Based on market data and institutional perspectives, most market analysts believe that the trend of A-shares with more declines before the holiday may change, and the probability of the stock market going up after the holiday will increase.
Wind data shows that based on historical data over the same period in the past 10 years, the major A-share indexes on the first day after the National Day and the week after the holiday all rose more and fell less.
In the past 10 years, the three major A-share stock indexes blew red 7 times on the first day after the holiday and 8 times in the first week after the holiday.
According to Huaxi Securities, data in the past 10 years (2010-2019) show that the probability of increase in 5, 10, and 20 trading days after the National Day is 80%, 70%, and 80% respectively; on average, after the National Day The Shanghai Stock Index rose and fell 2.05%, 1.82%, and 4.19% in 5, 10 and 20 trading days, respectively.
Data Map: Shareholders in the trading floor of a securities company.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Zhongjun
"Since 2000, the probability of increase in 5 trading days after the holiday is 65%, and the probability of increase in 10 trading days is 55%." China Merchants Securities stated that since 2015, as the scale of overseas capital allocation A shares has grown, The linkage between A-shares and the global market is also greater, and the characteristics of lightening up before the holiday and adding up after the holiday are more obvious.
Guotai Junan Securities recommends holding shares for the holidays.
"The A-share Shanghai Index maintains a 3100-3500 point shock pattern, once again close to the bottom edge. Don't let panic mood obscure the current precious odds and winning rate, and cherish every callback opportunity." "The upward trend of listed companies' earnings has been basically established and will support the stock market. The upward pattern of shocks."
Recently, public funds have been "buying dips."
According to China Everbright Metalworking, the average positions of equity funds and partial-equity mixed funds last week (September 21-September 25) were 88.45% and 82.98%, respectively, an increase of 3.34 percentage points and 1.28 percentage points from the previous month.
In addition, statistics from Good Buy Funds show that last week partial stock funds increased their positions by 1.54% against the market overall, with positions reaching 68.51%.
What will the overall market look like in the fourth quarter?
The A-share market in the third quarter "opened up and moved down", can the market in the fourth quarter be "excited"?
At present, brokerage agencies are mostly cautiously optimistic.
"Late September is the low point of market sentiment and the starting point of the fourth quarter market." The CITIC Securities strategy team believes that the risk of external disturbance factors has been fully released; liquidity is expected to reconsolidate a loose consensus after a short-term disorder; The multiple benefits of the quarter will gradually settle, and the market will enter a model driven by performance improvement and incremental funds.
Data map: In 2015, there was a giant "bull over bear" sculpture in Xiamen, and investors made a special trip to wait and see.
Image source: CFP Vision China
"The factors that are more likely to affect the market in the fourth quarter come from fluctuations in risk appetite, including external events in the US general election and structural opportunities that may be triggered during the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan"." Bohai Securities analyst Song Yiwei believes that overall , The future direction of the market is positive at the index level, but the upside of the center is relatively small, and the index has greater volatility due to changes in sentiment and risk appetite.
"With the gradual landing of uncertainties such as the epidemic situation and the U.S. election in October, A shares will usher in the decisive season of the fourth quarter." China Merchants Securities said that historically, the style differentiation in the fourth quarter was significantly stronger than the previous three quarters. .
In the medium term, the big judgment on A shares in the two-and-a-half-year upward cycle since January 2019 has not changed, and the market will gradually interpret the logic from liquidity-driven to economic fundamentals.
(Finish)