Consequence of the health crisis and its economic impact: the 2021 budget, which arrives in the Council of Ministers on Monday, will be largely absorbed by the recovery plan.

However, some ministries, such as Justice, Defense or Education, should benefit from a significant increase in their budget.

DECRYPTION

The 2021 budget will be presented to the Council of Ministers on Monday morning.

It promises to be particular this year, since it is, to a large extent, the recovery plan of 100 billion euros (of which approximately 30 billion released from 2021), which will be transformed into "Covid debt" to stem the economic crisis triggered by the health crisis.

Excluding Covid, the budget will be balanced overall, with winners and losers.

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Which are the winning departments?

The most spoiled ministry this year is that of Justice: with a budget up 8%.

2,450 new hires are planned by the end of 2021, the objective being to render justice "faster", in the words of Prime Minister Jean Castex.

The Defense budget also continues to climb, with an increase of 4.5% next year, to modernize our army.  

Another winner of the year 2021: Education, with a budget up 2.5%.

There will be additional hires and an envelope of 400 million euros dedicated to the revaluation of teachers' salaries.

Which are the losing ministries 

Among the losers, there is the Ministry of the Economy.

The government plans to maintain the overall staffing of civil servants next year.

But hires are already planned in some administrations, which should therefore force others to lower the wings.

Thus, 1,500 to 2,000 positions should be eliminated in 2021 at the Directorate General of Finance.

And finally there is the public audiovisual sector, which will have to deprive itself of 70 million euros, while its advertising revenues are down by 15 to 20% according to the CSA.

How will the Budget be financed? 

One thing is certain: there will be no tax hike, as members of the government have repeatedly said.

However, there will be many other cash inflows.

First source of income: the reform of APL.

Postponed several times, it is well planned this time for January 1, 2021. The amount of housing assistance will no longer be calculated on the income of two years ago but on those of the last 12 months.

The state had calculated a saving of 1.4 billion before the Covid.

But with the crisis and the number of beneficiaries expected to increase, savings should decrease.

Other sources of income: the government is asking mutuals for an exceptional contribution of 1.5 billion over 2 years.

Health Insurance has indeed covered a large part of the care during the Covid.

Many French people have also given up going to doctors.

This has enabled complementary health insurance to save more than two billion euros.

The State intends to recover part of it, even if the mutuals threaten to increase their rates.

Finally, an effort will be requested from action logement, formerly 1% housing.

The government had already announced a grab of $ 1 billion.

He adds an additional 300 million euros.