The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airef) has updated its analysis of the Spanish pension system in order to offer the Congress of Deputies a basis on which to recommend new measures to the Government.
The agency estimates that
spending on pensions in 2050 will account for 14.2% of the GDP of the Spanish economy, and recommends delaying the effective retirement age from 64.1 years to 66
and increasing the contribution career from the current 25 years to 35 to reduce that expense by 1.4 points.
, president of AIReF, explained today that the 14.2% of GDP that public spending on pensions would mean in 2050 is 3.3 points more than current levels, and one more point compared to her previous forecast for 2048. The agency works with forecasts that, it admits, have a "high degree of uncertainty".
It does so, for example, on the grounds that
the coronavirus crisis, which caused a 22% drop in GDP in the first half, will not cause structural damage to the system
That is why she recommends to the parties that must submit their opinion to "deepen" reforms that have "an immediate path and execution."
The increase in spending is mainly derived from the
of the population and the increase in life expectancy, which would be partially offset by the evolution of the labor market and by the maintenance of the
reforms introduced in 2011 as well as the application, such and as planned, of the sustainability factor from 2023.
According to AIReF forecasts, the Spanish population will rise to 54 million in 2050, while the working-age population will remain above 30 million people throughout the forecast period.
For this reason, the dependency ratio of the system, which relates the number of people over 66 years of age with the working-age population, would be 53% in 2050. If in 2010 there were almost five people per retiree, in 2050 there will be two .
"It is the true challenge of the system", has warned Herrero.
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