[Interview file] Why doesn't the house price drop even in the transaction'half a piece'?

The prices of apartments in Seoul, which had risen horribly, started to slow down.

That's fortunate.

In the case of the Gangnam area of ​​Seoul, there have also been places where the rise in billions in a month or two has decreased to tens of millions of won.

It looks like the fire that was burning wildly disappears.

The government's desperate efforts to control house prices, including strengthening loan regulations, strengthening holding taxes, and expanding supply, appear to be showing limited effects.

The Seoul Buying Advantage Index also fell for the third consecutive week, remaining below the baseline (100)

Values ​​usually tend to rise as trading is active.

A lot of transactions mean there is a lot of demand to buy, and if there is not enough supply, the price goes up.

Conversely, as fewer people are willing to buy, the transaction decreases and the price goes down.

In fact, the volume of apartment transactions in Seoul last month was only half that of a month ago.

As of this month, it is the level of half of the last month (10,651 cases in July → 4,903 cases in August → 1,417 cases in September, as of September 27). Real estate brokers also said, "Transactions started to decline from last month, and this month is virtually frozen." "The two sides are checking each other and fighting," he explained.

situation is'still

downturn, apartment prices in Seoul have not seldom turned down.

According to the statistics of the Korea Appraisal Board, apartment prices in Seoul maintained an increase of 0.01% for 5 consecutive weeks.

As a result, there is a chaotic situation in which the direction of the house price is undecided and the quick sale and the reported price are mixed.

In this context, the government interprets it as'a turnaround in a decline in apartment prices', taking quick-selling as an example, and some media and markets give the opposite explanation as'reports amid the disappearance of transactions'.

Depending on the point of view, both sides may be correct, or both sides may be wrong.

Even in the online real estate community, there is a strong conflict between the claim that "buy a house now, it is the best (high point)" and that "it will eventually rise again".

Why doesn't Seoul apartment prices seldom turn downward despite the

?

Experts still cite the demand for low- and mid-priced apartments as the primary driver.

Concerned that'in the end, the price of apartments will go up', there are many people who want to buy low-cost apartments with relatively less restrictions on loans.

A 30-year-old office worker who bought and sold an apartment in Nowon-gu last month said, "I decided that it is more likely to go up than it is going to go down in the future. I could buy it now if I owe it, but I decided to buy it because it seemed impossible even after a while." Said.

An appraisal official also explained, "With the overall decrease in transactions, the sale of low-cost apartment complexes such as the Gangbuk area of ​​Seoul is steadily being carried out. Those transactions are raising the overall average."

Another reason why house prices do not turn downward despite a sharp drop in the

price transaction is the high jeonse price.

Due to the Lease Protection Act, the price of jeonse has increased significantly as the number of jeonse properties has decreased significantly in recent years.

Kim Gyeong-gyu, head of the Korea Investment & Securities Institute for Asset Succession said, "As the jeonse market is confused due to the transitional period under the leasing law, the jeonse market is steadily rising as the common people are feeling housing insecurity. It is increasing,” he explained.

is difficult to predict how long this consolidation will continue as

sales

."

However,

First of all, from next June, the heavy tax rate on the transfer tax for multi-homed people in the regulated area will increase significantly.

The 2nd homeowner is currently 10%p to 20%p, the 3rd homeowner is up 10%p from 20%p to 30%p each.

As a result, the maximum transfer tax rate applied to 3 homeowners will increase to 72%.

At least 70% of the profits left by selling the house must be paid in tax.

In addition, through the July 10 measures, the maximum tax rate for the comprehensive real estate tax for multi-homed people has also increased significantly from 3.2% to 6.0%.

The publicly announced land price for apartments, which is a reference point, has already risen, so the burden of tax for multi-homeowners is expected to increase.

The base date for this tax tax is also in June, so as the

KEB Hana Bank's tax manager Lim Kyung-in said, "Since the tax burden on multi-homeowners increases rapidly, it can be much more advantageous to sell houses in terms of economic benefits. In that sense, from the end of the year, multi-homeowners will carefully consider selling. "There will be no choice but to do."

On July 10, Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Kim Hyun-mi appeared on SBS 8 News and explained the July 10 measures announced on the same day.

Until just before entering the studio that day, Minister Kim had a lot of talks with Kim Heung-jin, head of the Housing and Land Office.

In particular, it was impressive to see how many statistics were opened and opinions exchanged on how to interpret them.

Minister Kim's eyes that he had been treated because his bloodstream had burst before the broadcast was suddenly getting red.

Another two and a half months have passed since then.

Then, on the 23rd, Minister Kim became the longest-lived Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport.

On June 21, 2017, through his inauguration address, he declared the'war against real estate speculators' and came up with 23 real estate measures.

It's once in 52 days.

However, the evaluation of performance is still very weak.

Now, it is not enough to try hard enough to burst the eye veins.

It's late, but you have to show your real skills.

In the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, our national soccer team lost 0-1 to Belgium and failed to advance to the round of 16.

At the time, after the game, commentator Lee Young-pyo left such a saying.

"The World Cup is not a place to experience. The World Cup is a place to prove. In the end, I could not prove (proficiency)." Seeing Minister Kim, the people think similarly.

."

Minister Kim hopes to hear the voices of the people heavier and more painfully.