Constructing a new development pattern based on the smooth circulation of the national economy (authoritative interview)

——Interview with Xiaojuan Changjiang, School of Public Administration, Tsinghua University

  A few days ago, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at a symposium of experts in the economic and social fields: "The 14th Five-Year Plan period is after my country has built a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and achieved its first century of struggle. , In the first five years of marching towards the second centenary goal, our country will enter a new stage of development", requiring "to build a new development pattern based on the smooth circulation of the national economy."

  What are the characteristics of the new development stage?

How to meet new challenges, seize new opportunities, and build a new development pattern?

The reporter interviewed Jiang Xiaojuan, School of Public Administration, Tsinghua University.

  The new development stage has new characteristics, new opportunities and challenges

  Reporter: General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "Look at the new opportunities and challenges in the new development stage with dialectical thinking."

What are the new characteristics of the new development stage?

What are the new opportunities and challenges?

  Jiang Xiaojuan: During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country will enter a new stage of development with new characteristics, new opportunities and challenges.

  First of all, entering the stage of high-quality development, with new characteristics.

During periods when quantitative expansion is dominated, the word "investment" can be the head, and "incremental expansion" is the basis.

Invest in money, people, land, and projects, and there will be new output and growth.

During the quality improvement period, the word "promotion" should be the top priority, and the "inventory improvement" should be the basis.

The main point of investment is to improve quality, especially to improve the quality of stock production capacity and the configuration quality of production factors. It is also necessary to make decisions on how to optimize the structure, how to change the mode, and how to improve total factor productivity.

The situation will be much more complicated.

  Secondly, it has entered a period when technology "follows", "parallel run" and "leader" coexist and the weight of "parallel run" and "leader" continues to increase.

In the past, we focused on "following" and introduced advanced foreign technology to improve my country's technology, especially industrial technology.

There is no need to set your own direction when "following", just accelerate to keep up and shorten the gap.

Now that we have entered a period of equal emphasis on "following", "running" and "leading", the situation will change greatly.

Technological development has entered a highly uncertain situation, with no pilots, no industrial chain, unclear market demand, and even no idea whether anyone will follow.

We can only increase investment in basic research, persevere, and make original results.

At the same time, enterprises are the mainstay to allocate scientific and technological resources, strengthen cooperation between industry, university and research, and expand the market and industrial chain while innovating.

This is a more difficult and complex technological task than ever before.

  Third, digital technology is more extensively and deeply applied.

In the future, we will use digital technology to govern the economy and governance of society, and apply digital technology extensively in economic regulation, market supervision, social management, public services, and environmental protection.

At the same time, digital technology must be governed, including algorithmic issues and personal privacy protection issues.

Digital technology often has two sides. The same application can not only empower individuals, enterprises, and governments, but also empower all kinds of behaviors that violate rights and evade supervision.

  Fourth, the world today is undergoing major changes unseen in a century, which will inevitably bring about continuous adjustments in all aspects of global relations.

From the perspective of economic and trade relations, our relations with some developed countries have shifted from complementary relations to complementary, cooperation and competition coexisting.

The current strategic game of major powers goes far beyond the economic field, and the uncertainties and high risks of international relations are present in many places. The task of governance in this situation is complicated and the pressure is increasing.

  my country’s industrial competitiveness has been significantly improved, and it is entirely possible to grow stronger in the new development pattern

  Reporter: Against this background, what are our favorable conditions for building a new development pattern based on unblocking the national economic cycle?

  Jiang Xiaojuan: The General Secretary has pointed out many times to accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles mutually promoting each other.

Our favorable conditions can be seen from both domestic and international perspectives.

  From a domestic perspective, over the past 70 years since the founding of New China, my country has accumulated a relatively strong material foundation, and its comprehensive national strength has ranked first in the world.

In 2019, the total GDP is close to 100 trillion yuan, making it the second largest economy in the world. It has formed a super-large-scale economic foundation for a major country and provided the basic conditions for the formation of a large domestic cycle.

For example, my country has a manufacturing system with complete industries and obvious economies of scale. It is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification.

From the perspective of consumer demand, my country is the second largest market in the world, with more than 400 million middle-income people and a per capita GDP of more than 10,000 US dollars. The demand is multi-layered and diverse, and it can provide all kinds of markets required by domestic industries.

Our level of technological innovation continues to improve, and our human capital stock is large, which will continue to grow rapidly.

These conditions will support the continuous improvement of the scale, quality and efficiency of the domestic circulation.

  From the perspective of the international environment, although some setbacks and adjustments have occurred in globalization, the overall trend has not changed.

Economic globalization and technological globalization are continuing to develop. We adapt to the international environment and smooth the international cycle. Although there are challenges, there are more opportunities.

  There is no doubt that what we want is a new development pattern in which the domestic and international double cycles promote each other, and we must continue to use two markets and two resources.

The competitiveness of my country's industry has been significantly improved, and it is entirely possible to develop and grow in the new development pattern.

  Reporter: What are the difficulties and obstacles in building a new development pattern?

How to find the breakthrough point?

  Jiang Xiaojuan: To build a new development pattern, we must deepen supply-side structural reforms, develop a modern economic system, improve resource allocation efficiency, and increase total factor productivity, so as to continuously expand the domestic economic cycle.

In particular, it is necessary to improve the basic capabilities of the industry and the level of industrial technology, overcome the "stuck neck" technical problems, and unblock the industrial chain and innovation chain.

It is also necessary to give play to the fundamental role of competition policy, foster a fair competition environment, improve market operation efficiency, and promote high-quality economic development.

From the perspective of increasing the scale of consumption, the process of new urbanization must be accelerated.

In the past many years, urbanization has lagged behind industrialization. A large number of rural laborers have supported the process of industrialization, but they cannot fully enter the corresponding urban consumption, and consumption growth has been relatively slow.

Therefore, it is necessary to speed up the process of urbanization of the floating population, and promote a variety of consumption growth and level upgrades that match the stable living conditions in cities and towns.

  Use the international cycle to adjust the surplus and deficiency, obtain the benefits of division of labor, consolidate and expand the international market, and provide more opportunities for domestic enterprises

  Reporter: How do domestic and international double cycles promote each other?

  Jiang Xiaojuan: First of all, we must use the international cycle to adjust the remaining deficiencies.

Our country is an economy with shortage of land, fresh water and oil resources. It does not match our huge economic volume, which restricts us from allocating resources efficiently.

  The second is to use the international cycle to obtain the benefits of division of labor.

The formation of the global industrial chain is partly because it "will not do it" to gather global resources to produce together, and partly because it "will do it but not do it best" to seek the benefits of a global division of labor.

Both factors will continue to exist and increase efforts in the future.

In particular, the globalization of science and technology continues to advance, and high-tech products are becoming more and more complex. The world is cooperating and dividing labor. If you do it all by yourself, you will not have sustained competitiveness.

We must use our best efforts to participate in the global industrial chain innovation chain, while using our best efforts to improve the ability to respond to emergencies and maintain the stability of the industrial chain innovation chain.

  The third is to smooth the international circulation, consolidate and expand the international market, and also provide more opportunities for domestic enterprises.

We already have an important position in the global industrial chain. Many industries have a relatively high proportion of product markets abroad. The international circulation must be smooth and the entire industry must operate effectively to ensure employment and income. This is also important for domestic income growth and consumption growth. source.

  Reporter: To build a new development pattern, what kind of system and mechanism reforms are needed to support it?

  Jiang Xiaojuan: To build a new development pattern, first, we must implement a higher-level opening policy, from policy opening to institutional opening.

In the future, we must work to make the institutional open system more complete and relatively finalized.

It is necessary to continue to improve the system of foreign-related economic laws and regulations, adhere to the principle of equal status of various economic entities and equal protection of various property rights, and vigorously improve the level of law formulation and enforcement.

  Second, we must give play to the basic role of competition policy to ensure the effective allocation of resources.

Now that the conditions and environment in all aspects have undergone great changes, it is possible to give full play to the role of market competition and transform to a "neutral" open system.

The first is to maintain "neutrality" between exports and imports, both of which are equally important.

The second is to maintain "neutrality" between the absorption of foreign capital and foreign investment. The absorption of foreign capital brings capital, technology, advanced products, management experience, etc., and the investment income, export expansion, and local production advantages brought by foreign investment. Equally important.

The last is to maintain "neutrality" between foreign-funded enterprises and domestic-funded enterprises. Both types of enterprises can promote domestic economic development and international competitiveness. Fair competition can enable companies with stronger competitiveness to win and promote the entire industry to improve efficiency and competition. force.

  Our reporter Lu Yanan

  "People's Daily" (Edition 04, September 23, 2020)