Ahead of the presentation of the draft budget for 2021, Bercy estimated that the fall in GDP should be 10% this year, against 11% previously, before a rebound of 8% in 2021. A recovery driven by the recovery plan , which will not however prevent the public deficit from widening. 

The government, a little less pessimistic about the scale of the crisis, now expects a fall of 10% of GDP this year, against 11% previously, before a rebound of 8% in 2021, driven in particular by the plan of recovery, said Wednesday the Ministry of the Economy.

The public deficit is expected to widen a little less than expected to 10.2% of GDP this year (against 11.4% expected so far), before falling to 6.7% next year under l. 'effect of the return to growth, Bercy said ahead of the presentation of the draft budget for 2021.

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Public debt at 117.5% of GDP

As for the public debt, it should swell to 117.5% of GDP this year, a little less than the 120.9% expected previously, before falling slightly to 116.2% next year.

"At the end of 2021 the French economy will be only 2.7 points" from the level of GDP at the end of 2019, before the appearance of the Covid-19 epidemic in the country, underlined the Ministry of Economy during an exchange with journalists.

A gap closely monitored by the government, which has set itself the objective of returning to the pre-crisis level by the end of 2022.

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A resumption of activity which limits the fall in revenue ...

According to Bercy, the crisis will be less severe this year due to a slump in activity less than anticipated during the second quarter, marked by containment, but also thanks to the rebound in consumption and industrial production during the 'summer.

This upturn in activity will limit the fall in tax and social income, which will allow the public deficit and the debt to widen a little less than expected this year, even if since this summer new expenditure had to be taken into account. account (Ségur de la santé, new cancellations or deferral of charges, part of which may never be reimbursed, etc.).

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... but international uncertainties 

However, the government has chosen to maintain its forecast for a rebound in GDP next year.

Because if he has meanwhile unveiled his recovery plan of 100 billion euros, a third of which must be spent in 2021, the health situation "is not as favorable" as what had been projected, indicates t -on in Bercy.

Added to this are international uncertainties, including the complicated Brexit negotiations or the US elections.

These macroeconomic forecasts will be sent to the High Council of Public Finance, which will give an opinion on the scenario adopted by the government to establish its draft budget for 2021. This will be unveiled on Monday, September 28.