Containment and the Coronavirus pandemic have caused an unprecedented economic crisis in France.

According to INSEE, we will not be able to see the economic recovery and the effectiveness of the plan put in place by the government until next year.

In the meantime, it is essential to preserve employment and avoid as many bankruptcies as possible.

Nicolas Barré takes stock of a current economic issue.

Two months of confinement was enough to put the French economy on the ground.

But how long does it take to get up?

Can the machine start up again by the end of the year?

By the end of the year, don't count too much on it.

We are at the Eiffel Tower, do you see a lot of tourists on the horizon?

No !

Not an American, not a Chinese.

The hotels around are empty.

And at Roissy or Orly, traffic is still -80% compared to before the Covid.

Will it get better by the end of the year?

It's unlikely.

Will there be Chinese tourists in department stores at Christmas?

No one really believes it.

But should we despair and tell ourselves that nothing good will happen by the end of the year?

The answer is no.

Is it the 100 billion stimulus package that makes you a little optimistic?

In the short term, no.

INSEE wrote a few days ago in its conjuncture note that the effects of the recovery plan will appear especially next year.

But the next four months will nonetheless be crucial for the recovery.

First stake, immediate: it will be necessary to avoid a tsunami of bankruptcies.

There are two million companies which have benefited from delays in the repayment of their bank loans.

However, at the end of September, we will reach the end of these deferrals of payments, we will have to pay.

Second issue for the coming months: employment.

At the moment there are negotiations in companies and in certain branches on long-term partial activity: these are agreements which make it possible to maintain employment by reducing working hours.

But still these negotiations must take off, there are still too few.

It is absolutely essential that in the next four months, we limit business failures and preserve as many jobs as possible.

Is this the key to restore confidence and facilitate the recovery next year?

The recovery in 2021 is a certainty.

After the economy has fallen by around 10% this year, we expect a rebound of + 7% next year.

A growth rate never seen since 1960. So yes, there will be a very strong rebound.

But it will be very uneven.

Certain sectors such as the food industry have practically already returned to pre-crisis levels.

For others, such as tourism or air travel, which I was talking about at the beginning, it is not even certain that we will ever return to normal.

Hence this other challenge for the coming months: trades will change profoundly, some will disappear and skills will have to be adapted.

There is 15 billion in the stimulus plan for that.

This is what is most difficult, and this is why we have to work on it right away.