If the airline sector has experienced the worst and rarest summer in its history (airports and half-empty planes, with a historical drop in air traffic and ticket prices on the ground ...), autumn-winter does not look better :

the number of passengers is expected to fall by 70% and the cut in supply and frequencies is going to intensify

.

Routes will change and priority will be given to the most profitable and mature ones.

Passenger demand is expected to be around 30-35% in the coming months.

Of every 10 passengers who flew last year, seven will be lost,

according to forecasts by ALA, the Airline Association, which includes more than 80 companies operating in Spain.

"

Beyond September-October we cannot make big forecasts

because there is a lot of uncertainty," said Javier Gandara, president of ALA, at a press conference to present the balance of the sector and short-term prospects.

The European Commission has relaxed the regulations on slots, which are the time slots that a plane has to take off or land.

This regulation forced airlines to operate flights so as not to lose their rights.

Now they

will be able to "adjust their schedule based on demand

and change flights in a more agile way," explains Gandara.

The puzzle of planning flights

One of the

big headaches that companies are having during this pandemic is flight planning

, due to the effect that the restrictions imposed by countries from one day to the next have on demand.

In this context, and with passenger demand at 20%, ALA estimates that

in short-haul flights, airlines will focus on the most profitable

and mature

routes

.

Newer or more experimental courses will be put on hold.

The frequencies for a Madrid-Paris would be maintained, but not for a Malaga-Mikonos, for example

.

It is "like a puzzle that network managers have to do every day," she explains.

For now, restrictions and quarantines continue in many countries and transoceanic flights are almost stopped, as travel to many destinations outside of Schengen is still prohibited.

According to ALA,

this summer only 5% of these long-haul flights were operated.

Business trip

To this is added that the business business (which has a lot of weight in the autumn and winter months) is very affected, due to all the above and because companies have limited travel and there is more teleworking.

The airline sector is, along with tourism (they are closely linked), the worst hit in the pandemic:

losses of 15,000 million euros are estimated

only in Spain and 80% of the workers in the sector are still in ERTE.

Although June started with optimism, the summer has been twisted and in the end 36% of flights have been operated compared to last year, but the occupancy of the aircraft has been around 60%.

The offer was much higher than the demand and thus "it is impossible for any airline to make money," said Gandara.

This has pushed many companies to lower their prices and, in fact, in recent weeks you could buy tickets to many destinations in Europe for five euros a way.

From ALA

they do not believe that the bills are going to get cheaper because there is no more margin down.

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