China-Singapore Jingwei Client, September 14 (Xue Yufei) On the 14th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in August. Kong Peng, chief statistician of the City Department of the Bureau of Statistics, said that 70 large and medium-sized The urban real estate market was generally stable, with prices rising slightly.
Observing the monthly data released in recent times, we can find that in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities where the price of new houses has risen more than that of second-hand houses, and the same and month-on-month average increase in new house prices is also higher than that of second-hand houses.
In the same market, why is the popularity of new houses higher than second-hand houses?
59VS47
Photo by Xue Yufei, Sino-Singapore Jingwei, Sales Department
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in 59 cities rose month-on-month in August, the same as the number in July, but higher than the 55 in August 2019.
In terms of second-hand housing, the sales price of second-hand housing in 47 cities rose month-on-month in August, which was higher than the 45 in July this year and the 43 in August 2019.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, believes that the current real estate market is still at a high level due to loose credit and weak regulation in some cities, showing a slight upward trend.
Comparing the number of cities where the sales prices of new houses and second-hand houses have risen, it can be found that the number of cities where the price of new houses has risen month-on-month is significantly more than that of second-hand houses, and this trend exists for a long time.
From August 2019 to August 2020, the number of cities where the price of new homes increased month-on-month were 55, 53, 50, 44, 50, 47, 21, 38, 50, 57, 61 There are 43, 40, 31, 32, 38, 33, 14, 32, 37, 41, and 50 cities where the price of second-hand housing has risen month-on-month. , 45, 47.
From the average increase in 70 cities, the price increase of new houses is also higher than that of second-hand houses.
Still taking the data from August 2019 to August 2020 as an example, according to the statistics of E-House Research Institute, the month-on-month increase in the price of new houses in 70 cities in the above month was 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.3. %, 0%, 0.1%, 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.6%, the month-on-month increase of second-hand housing prices is 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.1%, -0.1% , 0%, 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.3%, the monthly average month-on-month increase of new housing is higher than that of second-hand housing.
Affected by the higher month-on-month increase, the monthly average year-on-year increase in new house prices is also higher than that of second-hand houses.
According to the above-mentioned research institute statistics, from August 2019 to August 2020, the average year-on-year increase in the monthly price of new houses in 70 cities was 9.1%, 8.6%, 8.0%, 7.3%, 6.8%, 6.5%, 5.9%, 5.4. %, 5.2%, 4.9%, 4.9%, 4.8%, 4.7%, the average year-on-year increase in the monthly price of second-hand housing is 5.3%, 4.6%, 4.2%, 3.8%, 3.6%, 3.5%, 3.1%, 2.7% %, 2.3%, 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.2%.
New houses are more popular than second-hand houses
The same is the housing demand, why is there a difference in the price increase of new houses and second-hand houses?
Xie Yifeng, Dean of the China Urban Real Estate Research Institute, analyzed the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that the price of new homes has risen faster than that of second-hand houses. This is a long-standing phenomenon. There are many reasons for this situation.
For example, the online signing transaction price of second-hand houses is easily affected by the product structure. Some second-hand houses may fluctuate with the surrounding market because of poor supporting facilities and old houses, but the increase is relatively small.
Xie Yifeng said that the transaction cycle of second-hand housing is very long. It takes several months from the buyer and seller to determine the price to the actual transfer transaction, which will be inconsistent with the performance of the new housing market.
In addition, the taxes and fees of second-hand houses are generally higher than those of new houses, and buyers need to pay taxes and fees in advance, which also drags down the increase in second-hand houses.
In comparison, due to the relatively new facilities and high living comfort of newly-built houses, under the same conditions, buyers in various cities prefer to buy new houses. Xie Yifeng said, “In the eyes of some buyers, only buying new houses can face".
The Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client has visited the market many times and found that due to the simple transaction process and the low initial burden of buyers, real estate agencies are vigorously promoting local new house products.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that from the perspective of the housing price performance of 70 cities, the popularity of new houses is indeed higher than that of second-hand houses. The large number of listings in the second-hand housing market and the weak price increase expectations of landlords can easily lead to lower price increases.
However, not in all periods, the price increase of new houses will be higher than that of second-hand houses.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August this year, the average month-on-month increase in the prices of second-hand houses in the four first-tier cities was 0.4%, 0.1%, 0.5%, 1.0%, 1.1%, 1.0%, 0.8%, 1.1%. This is higher than the average month-on-month increase in new house prices.
Yan Yuejin believes that the month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities is higher than that of new houses, which is related to the school district housing policy adjustment, which has led to an increase in the prices of second-hand housing near high-quality school districts.
Hot cities may appear moderate regulation
Recently, some cities with larger growth rates have successively introduced new property market regulation policies, and the trend of regulation and upgrading in hot cities has become more obvious.
Centaline Real Estate Research Center believes that from July to August, the wind direction of the real estate market regulation and control policies has changed, from the comprehensive easing in the first half of the year to the tightening state, including Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Zhengzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Changchun, Haikou, etc. More than 10 cities have introduced regulatory policies to cool the property market.
Zhang Dawei said that in the next period of time, it is inevitable that the regulation will be tightened, and it is expected that more than 30 cities will introduce policies with different strengths in the future.
Zhang Bo, director of the branch of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, said that according to 58.com and Anjuke homebuyers' behavior information, the confidence index of home buyers in August 2020 was 111.7, an increase of 1.9% from the previous month, showing that homebuyers are still optimistic about the future. .
As long as the purchase restrictions and differentiated credit policies remain unchanged, the regulation of cities with high housing market enthusiasm will continue to tighten, and the overall stability of housing prices will not change.
Xie Yifeng said that from the recent regulatory policies that have been issued, most cities have not adopted too strict policies, and more of them are "small repairs and small repairs" and "patches". This also shows that government departments do not want to "one size fits all" and cause accidental injury. Real rigid needs and improvement needs.
He predicts that for some time to come, the regulation and control policies of hot cities will be relatively moderate.
"It is worth noting that due to the recent increase in financial control of the "three red lines" of real estate companies, it is expected that the new housing market will have more open or secret discounts. While boosting sales, it may affect housing prices. It will pull down to a certain extent." Zhang Bo also said.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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