[Major financial outlook] 70 city housing prices will be released by the Federal Reserve to announce interest rate resolution
China-Singapore Jingwei Client, September 13 (Xue Yufei) This week, the 2020 Service Trade Fair will be closed in Beijing.
Next week (September 14th-September 20th) will there be any major financial events that may affect your "money bag"?
Let's see in advance!
Data release
Next week, China will announce the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in August, and hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy. The domestic oil price adjustment window will open; internationally, many major economies will release CPI and PPI data, the Federal Reserve Announce interest rate resolutions.
Market hotspot
1. August 70 city data will be released
On September 14, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the monthly report on the sales prices of residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities in August.
According to the data in July, the real estate market prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities were generally stable. The sales prices of newly-built commercial residential and second-hand houses in various tier cities fell or the same month-on-month; the sales prices of newly-built and second-hand residential houses in first-tier cities increased slightly year-on-year The growth rate of second- and third-tier cities continued to fall.
2. A press conference on the operation of the national economy will be held
On September 15, the National Bureau of Statistics will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy to announce the monthly report on industrial production above designated size, the monthly report on fixed asset investment (excluding farmers), the monthly report on real estate development and sales, and the monthly total retail sales of consumer goods Report, monthly report on energy production.
According to Wind data, a total of 15 institutions have forecasted the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in August. The maximum forecast is a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, the minimum is -0.3%, and the average is an increase of 0.6%; a total of 15 institutions The growth rate of the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size is predicted. The predicted maximum is a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, the minimum is 5.0%, and the average is 5.4%.
3. The Fed announces its September interest rate resolution
In the early morning of September 17, Beijing time, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press release and announce the September interest rate resolution.
In addition, on September 15, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, and on September 17, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will announce interest rate decisions.
On September 10 this year, the European Central Bank took the lead to announce the interest rate resolution and kept the three key interest rates unchanged.
At the regular monetary policy meeting held at the end of July this year, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations.
Powell said at the time that there was great uncertainty in the economic outlook of the United States, and whether the recovery could be achieved depends on whether the epidemic can be controlled.
Fourth, the domestic oil price adjustment window will open
At 24:00 on September 18, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open.
The latest oil price adjustment was on September 4th. As the average price of the first 10 working days on September 4 was compared with the average price of the 10 working days before August 21, the price adjustment amount was less than RMB 50 per ton, and the adjustment was stranded.
Regarding the market outlook, analysts at Jinlianchuang said at the time that international crude oil may remain in a narrow range, mostly due to fundamental restraints, and lack of rebound momentum. It is difficult to have obvious support for the domestic refined oil market, and refined oil prices are limited.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 17 adjustments, with 11 strandings, 3 downward adjustments, and 3 upward adjustments. The prices of gasoline and diesel have been reduced by 1,545 yuan/ton and 1,490 yuan/ton respectively.
Among them, a total of 6 times failed to adjust due to triggering the "floor price" protection mechanism.
5. The first launch of Ant Group's Science and Technology Innovation Board
On September 18, Ant Group's IPO will be reviewed by the Stock Listing Committee of the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board.
From the acceptance of the application on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on August 25 to the completion of two rounds of inquiries on September 9 and the notification of the meeting on September 18 that night, the listing review of Ant Group was relatively fast.
According to the prospectus, from 2017 to 2019 and from January to June 2020, Ant Group achieved operating income of 65.396 billion yuan, 85.722 billion yuan, 120.618 billion yuan and 72.528 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 8.2 billion yuan, 21.56 billion yuan, 18 billion yuan and 21.923 billion yuan.
6. FTSE Russell newly included 150 A shares
FTSE Russell’s flagship index, FTSE GEIS, will newly include 150 Chinese A-shares, and some previously included A-shares will be classified and adjusted due to changes in market value. This adjustment will be made after the close of the market on September 18. (Before the market opens on September 21) formally take effect.
Stock market frontier
1. IPO opportunities
The stocks to be listed and subscribed on September 14-20.
Source: Wind
On September 14, N Huawen (stock code: 003000.SZ) will be listed.
The company is a traditional flavor snack food company whose main business is the research and development, production and sales of flavored small fish, flavored dried bean curd and other traditional flavored snack foods.
On September 14, Zhizhen Technology and Cape Testing will subscribe; on September 15, Zhongtian Rocket, Songyuan shares, and Tongniu Information subscribe; on September 16, Youcai Resources, China Grain Stream, Xinjie Energy, Xiamen Bank , Weishi Electronics, Ruoyuchen, Chipsea Technology subscribe for purchase; September 17th, Changhua Co., Ltd., Beauty Beauty, Tianchen Medical, Shangwei New Materials, and Amec subscribe for purchase; September 18th, jointly create lawn, Shihua Technology applied for purchase.
2. Institutions see the market
Founder Securities: Short-term volatility is difficult to change in the long-term upward trend
The short-term market will continue to fall back inertially, but the technical oversold will also give the market room to rebound. The short-term market will challenge the 60-day line pressure. Due to the severe technical oversold on the GEM, there will be more room for rebound.
The Chinese economy is currently in a cycle of "capital expansion", and the purpose of "capital expansion" is to achieve economic internal circulation. This is why short-term fluctuations are difficult to change the mid- to long-term upward trend of the market.
In terms of operation, when the profitability of the market is reduced and the market structure is not yet clear, it is recommended to wait and see first, resolutely avoid future stocks with severe stock price overdrafts, and be cautious about "junk stocks" and new stock speculation.
Open source securities: the market need not be pessimistic
Standing at the inflection point of global liquidity expectations, the market will have two characteristics, that is, all good news comes from the profit restoration brought about by the economic recovery, and all bad news comes from the valuation brought about by liquidity and risk appetite. Pressure, which creates conditions for structural adjustment to deal with market uncertainty.
In the current market adjustment, appropriately avoiding the “core assets” with higher foreign earnings in the real interest rate down cycle, and focusing on the allocation of “low valuation + procyclical” industries, such as real estate, banking, coal, and construction; the follow-up market does not need to be pessimistic. Prepare for the counterattack, and lay out the synergies for the economic recovery of internal and external transactions, such as building materials, chemicals and construction machinery.
Ping An Securities: The dollar index rebounds significantly more momentum
The U.S. dollar index began to fall on May 27 this year and hit an intraday low of 91.7 on August 31, with a drop of 8.1% during this period. The market's mid-to-long-term pessimism towards the U.S. dollar emerged concentratedly.
However, the short-term logic of the dollar’s weakness has evolved more fully. With the re-expansion of the relative advantage of the US economy, the Fed’s monetary easing has stabilized, and the momentum of the dollar index’s phased rebound has been significantly enhanced. It needs to be noted that this may give major assets The impact.
Ping An Securities stated that the euro zone has taken a crucial step towards a unified fiscal union, and the ills in the US political and economic system reflected in the current round of the US presidential election have indeed brought the possibility of a long-term dollar weakening, but it should not be repeated. Shorten long logic and accelerate slow variables.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)
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