How was the price increase in various places in August? CPI rises in 19 provinces have fallen back, is there your hometown?

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, September 12 (Wan Keyi) How did prices increase in various places in August?

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released August CPI (Consumer Price Index) data for 31 provinces. Among them, 16 provinces saw a lower year-on-year growth rate than the whole country, 19 provinces’ growth rate fell from the previous month, and Beijing had the lowest year-on-year growth rate in August in the country.

CPI gains in 19 provinces fell

　　In August, the national CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points lower than in July.

The growth rate continued to be maintained in the "2 era".

　　According to Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, from a year-on-year perspective, food prices rose by 11.2% in August, a drop of 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 2.33 percentage points.

Among them, affected by the comparison base last year, pork prices rose by 52.6%, a sharp drop of 33.1 percentage points from the previous month; fresh vegetables prices rose by 11.7%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points; beef and mutton prices rose by 14.4% and 9.7%, respectively. The prices of chicken and duck meat dropped by 1.6% and 0.9% respectively, the first drop in the past three years; the prices of fresh fruits and eggs continued to drop by 19.8% and 12.4%, respectively, and the rates of decline both narrowed.

　　In terms of provinces, 12 provinces, including Yunnan, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Shandong, increased year-on-year CPI growth in August that exceeded the national level. Jiangxi, Chongqing, Gansu and other three places increased at the same rate as the country, while 16 provinces including Hunan, Jiangsu, and Guangdong increased less than the country.

Among them, Yunnan’s CPI rose 4.3% year-on-year in August, leading the country; Beijing’s CPI rose 0.9% year-on-year, the lowest increase in the country.

　　According to data released by the Beijing Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics, food prices in Beijing rose 6.6% year-on-year in August, the same as the previous month.

The price of pork increased by 56.4% year-on-year, and the increase was 21.7 percentage points lower than the previous month; the price of fresh vegetables rose by 9.4%; the prices of fresh melons and eggs fell by 22.2% and 12.7% respectively.

Non-food prices fell by 0.2%.

Among them, the price of air tickets dropped by 31.5%; the prices of gasoline and diesel dropped by 14.5% and 15.9% respectively.

Pork’s impact on CPI is beginning to weaken

　　Judging from the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, rising food prices are still the main factor driving the rise of CPI.

Take meat and egg prices as an example. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that pork prices have started to rise again since May this year. At the same time, the prices of beef, lamb, eggs and other foods have basically continued to show in recent months. Rising trend.

　　Average price of pork, beef, lamb, white striped chicken, and eggs (yuan/kg) Source: Screenshot of the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

　　Fu Yifu, a senior researcher at the Suning Institute of Finance, analyzed that the fall in CPI growth in August reflects that the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, the resumption of production and the steady progress of economic recovery, and the overall market supply and demand are in a stable and balanced state.

He pointed out that the high temperature and heavy rainfall have affected the production of pork and fresh vegetables to a certain extent, and the continued recovery of the catering industry has caused the demand for pork and fresh vegetables to increase, resulting in price increases; August is approaching the Mid-Autumn Festival and the beginning of school. , The scale of egg consumption demand began to expand, pushing up the price of eggs.

　　On the other hand, Donghai Futures believes that the marginal slowdown of pork price growth has begun to weaken its impact on CPI.

It is expected that as the pig cycle resumes, the increase in meat supply is still a major trend, and pork prices may gradually fall.

　　Zhou Sha, chief analyst of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery at West China Securities, said that the rapid recovery of live pig production capacity makes it difficult to sustain super-high pig prices.

In her view, under the stimulus of high profitability in breeding, breeding groups and large-scale farmers have greatly increased their enthusiasm for replenishment, and the national pig production capacity has steadily recovered.

Zhou Sha said: “According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the stock of reproductive sows across the country has achieved a positive month-on-month growth in October 2019 for the first time, and a positive year-on-year growth in June 2020. Under the stimulus of sustained ultra-high profitability, the production capacity of pigs will be fast Up, the downward cycle of the cycle has been established and will continue until at least 2022."

　　The research report of Yuekai Securities also analyzed that the CPI pork item fell to 52.6% from a year-on-year increase of 85.7% year-on-year from the previous month. This was the fastest year-on-year decline in pork items after the pork surge in 2019.

Its year-on-year contribution rate to CPI was 85.9% in July, the highest point in recent years. It fell to 72.5% in August, and its impact on CPI began to weaken.

How will CPI go in the future?

　　Talking about the future trend of CPI, Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the rising trend of pig prices is nearing the end. With the recent increase in the number of pigs for slaughter and the superimposition of the high base, the subsequent year-on-year increase in pig prices will continue to fall, thereby pulling Low food prices.

Zhu Jianfang predicts that prices will continue to decline in September, and the CPI will fall to around 1.5% by the end of the year.

　　The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, Fu Linghui, recently stated that from the survey, the number of live pigs is increasing seasonally. Since the supply and demand of live pigs are still in tight balance, the high price will continue for a period of time, but the supply is increasing. It is unlikely that prices will rise sharply.

The price of fresh vegetables is mainly affected by short-term factors, and the growth cycle of fresh vegetables is relatively short, which will not significantly promote the overall price.

　　Donghai Futures pointed out that the current demand side has recovered and household consumption has gradually improved, which will help support food items and CPI.

But in the long run, the CPI will return to below 2.0% in the fourth quarter due to the manifestation of the base effect, the slow recovery of demand, and the tightening of the marginal monetary policy.

　　Yuekai Securities also believes that the CPI will decline. Its research report pointed out that the core CPI bottomed out year-on-year, but the most critical sub-item pork that determines the CPI began to weaken the CPI.

"The year-on-year comparison of other supplies and services may also be close to the top. In addition, it is difficult for PPI to transmit to CPI. It is certain that CPI will continue to fall year-on-year during the year."

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract or use in other ways.