The fall in value of Dutch real estate will increase to 6 percent next year, ABN AMRO reports Thursday.
The bank points to the expected rise in unemployment as the main cause, which will offset this year's rise in value.
According to ABN AMRO, the value of real estate is responding with a delay to the economic contraction that started earlier this year as a result of the corona crisis, which means that the value of real estate in the Netherlands will increase by 1.5 percent in 2020.
In 2021, however, the bank is expecting a fall in value of 6 percent.
This is partly because unemployment will only increase around that time, since many companies - with or without the help of the government - are still keeping their people on the payroll for the time being.
For this year, ABN AMRO's Economics Department is expecting an increase in unemployment from 3.4 to 4.4 percent, while next year will see an accelerated increase to 7.2 percent.
This will have an effect on the housing market, says ABN AMRO, as disposable income decreases in the event of unemployment, as will the willingness to spend large amounts.
The existing housing shortage can limit the damage, the bank writes.
In the real estate market for offices, the expected fall in demand for workplaces can still be compensated for some time by the relatively large surface area required to maintain a 1.5 meter distance in the workplace.
In the long term, a lower demand for office space must be taken into account, all the more so when home workers want to work from home for one or more days in the future.