(Economic Observation) Why did China's exports improve more than expected in August?

  China News Service, Beijing, September 7 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) China's export recovery momentum is becoming more apparent.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 7th, China's exports in August increased by 11.6% year-on-year, not only setting a new record since the outbreak of the epidemic, but also setting a new high since March last year.

  So far, China's exports have maintained a rapid growth of more than 10% for two consecutive months.

Driven by the recent export situation, China's exports from January to August resumed positive growth for the first time this year, with an increase of 0.8%.

  Zhang Bin, deputy director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, stated that China's foreign trade performance not only outperformed the world's major economies, and its share of the international market has further increased, but also "better than our own expectations."

  There are many reasons why China's exports have continued to improve recently.

From the perspective of demand, as many overseas countries have shifted from epidemic prevention and control to promote resumption of work and production, the world economy and trade have begun to recover, and external demand has gradually recovered.

  In August, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) China-Singapore Export Order Index rose to 49.1%, a new high since January this year, and also higher than the same period last year, indicating that demand is improving.

  From the perspective of supply, China's industrial chain and supply chain have withstood the test of the epidemic and are capable of fulfilling orders when a large number of factories in other countries stop working.

  Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that the main reason for the continuous increase in China’s exports is that the industrial chains and supply chains in many countries have been hit hard or even hit. At the time of the "shutdown", China's industrial system was the first to resume normal operation, and the competitive advantage of exports was further highlighted.

  The gradual effectiveness of stabilizing foreign trade policies is also one of the reasons.

Since the beginning of this year, in order to hedge against the impact of the epidemic on exports, the central and local governments have introduced a series of powerful measures to stabilize foreign trade, including increasing support for foreign trade enterprises in terms of credit and taxation, and alleviating financial pressure on enterprises; encouraging various Online exhibitions help companies win orders, etc.

  In Zhang Bin's words, this year's foreign trade stabilization policy is "exceeding the norm", and the frequency and intensity of the introduction are unprecedented.

  Cross-border e-commerce companies also provide "shock absorbers" for China's exports.

According to official statistics, in the first half of this year, China's customs cross-border e-commerce supervision platform imports and exports increased by 26.2%, of which exports increased by 28.7% and imports increased by 24.4%, which was much higher than the overall growth rate of China's imports and exports during the same period.

  Although China's export performance continues to improve, it is not yet time to sit back and relax.

  At present, the epidemic is still pandemic on a global scale, which has dealt a heavy blow to the economies of many countries.

Judging from the second-quarter data released by major economies, the epidemic has had a significant impact on all aspects of economic activities such as business production and operation, employment, and consumer confidence. The time needed to get out of the downturn may far exceed expectations.

  This means that it may take a long time to restore vitality.

  Cui Xiaomin, an assistant researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that China’s future exports are more "prospective" than "immediate concerns."

On the one hand, the uncertainty brought by the epidemic and weak demand caused by the decline of corporate investment willingness and the deterioration of the balance sheet will restrict the process of repairing external demand.

On the other hand, as similar countries pass the peak of the epidemic and gradually resume work and production, China's export substitution effect to other countries and export market share may return to normal, thereby weakening the support for overall export growth.

  In addition, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has soared recently, and the rise of unilateralism and protectionism may also create obstacles to exports.

  Zhang Bin said frankly that the situation facing China's foreign trade will become more severe and complex in the future, the international economic and trade structure is also undergoing profound adjustments, and the prospects for foreign trade are still uncertain.

(Finish)