(Financial World) The second quarter data "diving" the world is facing the worst recession since World War II?

　　China News Service, Beijing, September 7 (Zhang Wenhui) A pandemic overturned previous expectations of all parties on the economic outlook for 2020.

　　Recently released second-quarter data showed that the US GDP (gross domestic product) fell by 31.7% at an annual rate, the largest quarterly decline on record; the British GDP contracted 20.4% month-on-month, the worst record since 1955; Japan's GDP after deducting price factors The month-on-month decline was 7.8%, and for three consecutive quarters of negative growth, the annual rate of decline was 27.8%, the largest drop since World War II; Brazil fell 9.7% from the previous month, and the economy fell to the end of 2009 level; India’s GDP shrank by 23.9% year-on-year, setting a record for India in 1996 New low since the release of quarterly economic data...

　　The World Economic Outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in June predicts that the global growth rate in 2020 will be -4.9%, of which the decline in advanced economies will reach 8%, the United States will decline by 8%, and the Eurozone will decline by 10.2%. , Emerging markets and developing economies fell by 3%.

　　On the 5th, Wang Yiming, member of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, attended the 2020 Global Wealth Management Forum in Beijing and pointed out that the global economy is facing the worst recession since World War II.

　　Net exports and investment are both affected by the epidemic, and consumption has high expectations as one of the troikas driving the economy.

　　Starting from July 22, when traveling in Japan, you can receive travel subsidies provided by the government.

The subsidy amount is half of the accommodation fee, but the upper limit cannot exceed 20,000 yen (about 1,300 yuan); from August, the British government has launched a 500 million pounds, one-month "dining out is to help" activity. From Monday to Wednesday, British citizens who eat in restaurants can enjoy a discount of up to 50% (a maximum of 10 pounds per person); all Canadians who have lost income due to the epidemic can receive a Canadian emergency relief fund of CAD 2000 per month, and can Continue to receive 4 months, up to a total of 8,000 Canadian dollars.

　　However, the inflection point of the global epidemic is not yet known, and the economic recovery remains uncertain.

S&P Global Asia Pacific Chief Economist Shaun Roache and Nobel Prize winner Andrew Michael Spence both stated at the 2020 Global Wealth Management Forum that the future global economy will recover on a large scale and slowly.

　　Andrew Michael Spence pointed out that, not surprisingly, the economic recovery in developed countries will continue until at least 2021.

"It depends on whether we can launch a new crown vaccine soon in the future."

　　The World Bank’s Global Economic Outlook released in June pointed out that East Asia and the Pacific, where China is located, may be the only region in the world that has achieved positive economic growth this year, with an estimated economic growth rate of 0.5%.

　　Wang Yiming pointed out that China’s economic growth rate was 6.1% in 2019, the global economic growth rate was 2.9%, and China’s relative growth rate difference was 3.2 percentage points. If China’s economic growth rate can reach 3% in 2020, the global economic growth rate will At -4.9%, the relative growth rate will reach 7.9 percentage points.

　　"Global Economic Outlook" believes that China's economic recovery will have a spillover effect on the recovery of the world economy. The continuous opening of policies and technologies, as well as reforms and innovations, will promote the long-term growth of the world economy in the post-epidemic era.

　　Facing the new situation, China proposed to build a new development pattern in which the domestic and international dual cycles promote each other.

　　Wang Yiming said that the "dual cycle" is a strategic adjustment to adapt to changes in the internal and external environments. The impact of the epidemic has brought profound changes in China's external environment.

At present, China’s epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery are at the forefront of the world, and its influence and spillover effects on the global economy have been further enhanced. Through the smooth domestic economic cycle, it can better connect the domestic and international markets with its own certainty and stability. Sexual response to the uncertainty and instability of the world.

　　Liu Shangxi, president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, believes that the most important thing to build a new development pattern of "double cycles" is to start with employment.

Improve the quality of employment, improve the adequacy, stability, and equality of employment, and form an effective cycle.

This is conducive to enhancing China's ability to allocate resources and self-development in the world.

　　Wang Yiming emphasized the importance of foreign-funded enterprises in building a new high-level open economic system.

He said that foreign-funded enterprises are actually the junction of the dual cycle and the hub to promote the dual cycle.

As long as the scale of foreign-funded enterprises can continue to expand, the stability of China's supply chain and industrial chain will be greatly improved, and the internal and external circulation will be smoother.

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