On Monday, September 7, the Russian currency shows weakening on the Moscow Exchange.
During trading, the euro rate grew by almost 1% and for the first time since February 2016 reached 90.1 rubles.
At the same time, the dollar rate rose by 1.1%, to the level of more than 76.2 rubles.
The last time a similar indicator was observed on April 22.
The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on September 8 was set at 75.59 rubles per dollar and 89.48 rubles per euro.
According to experts, the ruble was under pressure from a sharp decline in world oil prices.
At the auction on Friday, Brent crude on the ICE exchange in London fell in price by more than 2% - to $ 41.6 per barrel.
The value became the lowest since the end of July.
“Oil quotes are down as global energy demand rebounds worse than expected.
Investors also reacted negatively to Iran's statement that the country cannot fulfill the terms of the OPEC + deal to reduce production, ”Dmitry Ivanov, executive director of the Klopenko Group, told RT in an interview.
In addition, the record growth of the euro and the dollar against the ruble may be partly due to political instability in Belarus.
This point of view, in an interview with RT, was expressed by Alexey Korenev, an analyst at FINAM Group.
According to him, against the background of close economic ties between Moscow and Minsk, investors fear increased tensions in the neighboring country, which negatively affects the position of both the Russian ruble and the Belarusian one.
“The share of Belarus accounts for 5.2% of the Russian foreign trade turnover.
In turn, Russia itself occupies 48-49% of the foreign trade of a neighboring country.
Thus, territorially, Belarus is our closest trading partner, and until the situation there stabilizes, risks will remain, ”the expert explained.
At the same time, participants in the foreign exchange market are alarmed by the possibility of increasing sanctions pressure.
Artyom Deev, head of the analytical department of AMarkets, spoke about this in an interview with RT.
“The ruble reacted to statements from Germany about the incident with Alexei Navalny and the possible emergence of new restrictions.
First of all, we are talking about statements about the freezing of "Nord Stream - 2", - explained Deev.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin today does not see any risks for Germany to block Nord Stream 2.
This was announced on Monday by the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov.
“We are watching these statements.
For now, we fix that for each such new statement, two statements appear that speak of the absurdity of such proposals, ”Peskov stressed.
Moreover, according to the head of the Russian Ministry of Energy Alexander Novak, the gas pipeline will be completed, despite all the difficulties arising around the project.
“This project will be implemented.
Yes, there are certain difficulties, but nevertheless it continues, "TASS quotes the minister.
© Tobias Schwarz
According to analysts, the weakening of the ruble continues to restrain the actions of the Bank of Russia.
Recall that in order to stabilize the exchange rate from March 10, the regulator began proactive sale of foreign currency in the domestic market.
Thus, the Central Bank artificially increases the demand for rubles.
In total, during this time, the volume of currency sales amounted to about 1.16 trillion rubles.
As an expert on the stock market BCS Broker Dmitry Babin told RT, the relative stability of the Russian debt market provides additional support to the ruble.
Over the summer, amid an outflow of foreign investment, the Russian government bond index (RGBI) fell by almost 2%.
Meanwhile, as the expert noted, since the beginning of autumn, the indicator has managed to stabilize and refrain from a more serious fall.
According to Artem Deev, in the second half of September, the start of the tax period may play in favor of the Russian currency.
At this time, exporting companies traditionally sell foreign currency and buy rubles to pay taxes.
Also, in the near future, the national currency may be supported by an improvement in sentiment in the international financial market.
The head of the analytical research department of the Higher School of Financial Management Mikhail Kogan told RT about this.
“Investors see the global economic recovery continues.
Market participants are encouraged by the news about the emergence of a vaccine against COVID-19, negotiations in the US Congress on new stimuli for the economy, as well as the unwillingness of the United States to go to another aggravation of relations with China, "Kogan explained.
In general, analysts interviewed by RT assess possible changes in the dynamics of the ruble in the near future differently.
According to Dmitry Ivanov, during September the dollar exchange rate may fluctuate in the range of 74-78 rubles, and the euro exchange rate - at the level of 87-92 rubles.
At the same time, Dmitry Babin does not exclude a noticeable strengthening of the national currency in the event of a recovery in oil prices and a weakening of sanctions risks.
“If the foreign policy situation begins to improve, and oil quotes return to the $ 44-47 per barrel corridor, the dollar rate may drop to 73 rubles, and the euro rate to 86 rubles," the expert concluded.