The pig price of "once in a thousand years"?
Raising a pig can earn nearly 2,000 yuan, and big pig farmers are expanding wildly
"China Economic Weekly" reporter Guo Zhiqiang | Hunan Report
The price of meat affects the dining tables of hundreds of millions of families.
Everyone seems to be expecting: When will the price of meat drop?
Data show that in the last week of August this year (24th-30th), the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 36.84 yuan/kg, which was an increase of 25% from the average price of 27.61 yuan/kg in May.
In addition, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, my country's pork price in July this year increased by 85.7% year-on-year.
With the frenzied expansion of pig-raising companies and the establishment of factories to raise pigs, how long can the price of pork at the outlet "fly"?
A reporter from China Economic Weekly did a survey.
The pig price of "once in a thousand years"?
Raising a pig earns nearly 2000 yuan
Affected by factors such as the pig cycle and the African swine fever epidemic, pork supply continues to be tight, and pork prices continue to remain high.
From August 24th to 30th, 2020, the average price of ternary pigs abroad is 36.84 yuan/kg.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from August 24th to 30th, the price of pork dropped by 0.2% from the previous week.
The average price of live pigs has remained above 36 yuan/kg, which is much higher than the last round of pig cycle (Note: Under the influence of supply and demand, my country's live pig market shows cyclical price fluctuations. The general trend is: pork prices rise-able to breed sows The stock volume has increased greatly-the market supply of live pigs has increased greatly-the price of pork has fallen-farmers have eliminated a large number of sows-the supply of hogs has decreased-pork prices have risen again).
In late August, Tao Yishan, chairman of Tang Renshen, a big pig farmer, said in an interview with China Economic Weekly, “Looking at the longer time, China’s current high pig prices are also'once in a thousand years'. With environmental pressure, African pigs The disease and other factors are superimposed, and the pressure of rising pig raising costs will surely be transmitted to the farmers."
As the price of pork remains high, large pig farmers continue to benefit from this, and the head pig companies are even more profitable.
Public data shows that in the first quarter, Tang Renshen made an average profit of 1938 yuan per pig. Affected by the fluctuation of pig prices, the average profit per pig in the second quarter was still more than 1500 yuan.
From January to June, Tang Renshen made a profit of 1685 yuan per pig.
Recently, reporters visited the front-line pork vendors. They predicted that with the approach of the school season, meat demand will increase, and it is expected that meat prices may still rise slightly in the later period.
On September 2, "China Economic Weekly" combed through information from the Department of Commerce of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, and found that the latest disclosure of pork retail prices in late August remained the most expensive. , The month-on-month increase reached 3.08%.
As the saying goes, "pig food is safe in the world", two-thirds of China's meat consumption comes from pork.
It is worth noting that the increase in meat prices directly affects the quality of life of residents.
Recently, a citizen of a county in central China posted a complaint on the Qiaozheng platform that the price of pork in Taiyuan Township of the county is relatively expensive, generally 56 yuan/kg, while the price of pork in other regions is 40 yuan/kg. It is hoped that the market supervision and management department will investigate and deal with it.
The local market supervision department was also helpless to this complaint. It replied, “Pork price is a market-adjusted price. It is affected by market competition and market supply and demand. Under the premise that relevant government departments have not initiated price intervention measures in accordance with laws and regulations, the market The regulatory authority must not interfere with its sales price."
How long can the price of pork standing in the air "fly"?
On August 14, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, made an analysis from two aspects at the press conference of the State Council Information Office: First, as companies resume work and resume production, catering services have gradually recovered, and there is demand for catering-related pork. The second reason is that the southern flood in July has an adverse effect on the production and transportation of live pigs, which affected the price of pork.
Fu Linghui predicts, "For pork prices, due to some unreasonable restrictions on breeding and banning measures since last year, the production of pigs has been affected to a certain extent. Governments at all levels have increased the production of pigs in a timely manner. According to the survey, the number of pigs in stock is increasing seasonally. However, from the perspective of the supply situation, the production and supply of live pigs are still in tight balance, and the high price operation will continue for a period of time. Generally speaking, it is unlikely that the price of pork will rise sharply."
Pig raising companies are expanding wildly. Will domestic pig prices fall to RMB 10 in 2022?
China is the world's largest pork consumer, eating nearly 700 million pigs a year, which means that half of the world's pigs are consumed by Chinese people.
China is also the world's largest pork producer.
Tao Yishan told China Economic Weekly, “According to incomplete statistics, the scale of the pig raising projects under construction or to be built by major pig raising companies in China will reach 2 billion heads, while China’s pork consumption is only 650 million heads. There will be overcapacity in the pig industry, or it will face a disaster."
The frenzy of pig prices has strengthened the signal for the expansion of the pig market, and many pig companies have started large-scale pig raising projects.
Taking the head pig company New Hope and Muyuan as an example, New Hope plans to produce no less than 8 million pigs for slaughter in 2020.
In the first half of this year alone, the company plans to raise 10 billion yuan through convertible bonds, epidemic prevention and control bonds, and private placement.
According to the announcement, Muyuan has determined the planned slaughter volume of 17.5 million to 20 million pigs in 2020, and the planned 6 million slaughter capacity will also be completed and put into production in the second half of the year.
According to Founder CITIC Futures’ “Swine Weekly”, in the first half of 2020, 25 hog breeding companies released information on investment and construction of factories. Project investment sites cover most provinces across the country, involving an investment of 165.9 billion yuan.
The other side of the coin is that pressure on the cost of raising pigs is rising.
Among the many price hikes of raw materials, corn has the most outstanding performance.
Ruida futures data show that the current corn price has risen to the highest point in recent years, from 1915 yuan/ton in early January to 2,340 yuan/ton on August 27, an increase of nearly 20%.
A pig farming business owner calculated an account for the reporter. The pig farm lease fee is 300 yuan, and the entrusted breeding fee is 300 yuan. The cost of farming alone is 600 yuan, plus depreciation and management fees, the pig farming company can afford it. This cost does not make much money.
In May of this year, Zhang Xuewu, a deputy to the National People’s Congress, paid attention to the issue of meat prices. He pointed out to China Economic Weekly that most of our country’s pig farmers raise pigs in a crude manner, and the efficiency of pig raising is extremely low. The feed cost per kilogram of pork is about the US The labor cost is about five times that of the United States.
This is why American pork is cheaper than domestic pork.
Tao Yishan told China Economic Weekly, “The turning point of pork prices will be at the beginning of next year. With the start of a new wave of pig cycles, pig production capacity will face surplus. Large pig farmers in the pen have already predicted that by 2022, domestic meat prices will fall. It’s 10 yuan. I’m even more pessimistic. By then, the price of meat will fall to 4-5 yuan.”