Understand the latest set of monetary policy: more money flows to the real economy

　　Chinanews Client Beijing September 4 (Reporter Li Jinlei) The wind started at the end of Qingping, and the waves became between the waves.

If you look at some information together, you will find something unusual.

　　The State Council executive meeting held on September 2 proposed that the next step is to adhere to a prudent monetary policy that is flexible and appropriate, maintain policy strength and sustainability, avoid flooding, and guide more funds to flow to the real economy.

　　On August 20th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Central Bank held a symposium on key real estate companies, which formed the rules for capital monitoring and financing management of key real estate companies.

From the outside, this is a signal of tightening of financing for housing companies.

　　The real estate work symposium held on July 24 proposed to implement the real estate financial prudential management system, stabilize the stock, strictly control the increase, and prevent the illegal flow of funds into the real estate market.

　　Recently, China Everbright Bank, China CITIC Bank, Ping An Bank and many other banks have issued announcements, prohibiting credit card funds from being used to buy houses and stocks, and can only be used for personal consumption.

　　Guide more funds to flow into the real economy, prevent illegal flow of funds into the real estate market, regulate financing for real estate companies, and prohibit credit card funds from buying houses. These information together can read a clear signal: the

Data map.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Wei Liang

　　Guo Shuqing, secretary of the Party Committee of the People's Bank of China and chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, recently published an article in the "Seeking Truth" magazine that under the background of loose funding, companies, residents, and governments may all increase debt.

After the expectation of consistent downward interest rates is strengthened, it is likely to encourage leveraged trading and speculation, and spawn a new round of asset bubbles.

Real estate prices in some places have begun to rebound, and financial resources may once again be concentrated in high-risk areas.

　　Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Finance, told reporters from Chinanews.com that since the beginning of this year, in response to the downward pressure on the economy and the impact of the epidemic, my country has taken a series of response measures in a timely manner. The marginal monetary policy is loose and the market liquidity is reasonable and sufficient. Control and economic recovery.

However, due to the lack of smooth monetary policy transmission channels, there is a time lag between "wide currency" and "wide credit", leading to idling arbitrage of funds and illegal inflows into the property market.

　　Funds are the lifeblood of the real estate market. This time, the state focused on using financial policy tools to control the real estate market. On the one hand, it is to stabilize land prices, house prices, and expectations. On the other hand, it is also a combination of dredging and blocking, which aims to guide capital to flow into important and weak links such as manufacturing. .

　　The reason is very simple. There is so much money, the property market has a lot to eat, and the real economy is not full. How can it work?

RMB data map.

Zhang Yunshe

　　In fact, in 2019, Guo Shuqing reminded at the 11th Lujiazui Forum that some local real estate financialization issues must be faced squarely.

In recent years, the household sector leverage ratio in some Chinese cities has risen rapidly, and a considerable proportion of household debt ratios have reached unsustainable levels.

What's more serious is that about half of the new savings resources are invested in real estate.

Excessive financing of the real estate industry not only squeezes credit resources from other industries, but also easily encourages real estate investment and speculation, making the bubble problem worse.

　　Moreover, under the background of China’s economic shift to a new development pattern in which the domestic and international dual cycles are the mainstay and the domestic and international dual cycles promote each other, the stability of the real estate market is also related to the expansion of domestic demand. After all, if the people want to consume, the people have to have money. Money, you can’t let the house empty out six wallets.

　　Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Research Institute of the Chinese Policy Research Institute, told a reporter from Chinanews.com that the Politburo meeting held on July 30 again emphasized the practical significance of "housing and housing not speculating" and warned against rushing into it.

The recent rebound in housing prices in individual cities, and the sharp rise in housing prices, is not conducive to the development of the real economy and will also affect the consumption capacity of residents. Therefore, we must persist in not using real estate as a short-term economic stimulus method to stabilize the property market and prevent major fluctuations.

Data map: Bank staff are counting currency.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

Guide new financing to the manufacturing industry, small, medium and micro enterprises

　　On the one hand, it is necessary to block the flow of illegal funds into real estate; on the other hand, it is necessary to accurately guide funds into the real economy.

　　The Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, Sun Guofeng, recently said at the State Council’s policy briefing that monetary policy needs greater certainty to deal with various uncertainties, that is, the three unchanged and the orientation of prudent monetary policy remains unchanged; Keep the flexible and moderate operating requirements unchanged, neither let the market lack money nor allow the market money to overflow; the determination to adhere to the normal monetary policy remains unchanged, we have not adopted zero or even negative interest rates, and unconventional currencies such as quantitative easing Policy, so there is no so-called withdrawal problem.

　　Sun Guofeng said that in terms of aggregate, a variety of monetary policy tools should be used to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, maintain a reasonable growth in the money supply and the scale of social financing, and support the return of the economy to potential growth.

Structurally, we will effectively play the precise guiding role of structural monetary policy tools, guide new financing focus to the real economy such as manufacturing, small and medium-sized enterprises, etc., support high-quality economic development, and promote the increase of potential output levels.

　　The chief analyst of CITIC Securities’ fixed income clearly believes that a flexible and appropriate monetary policy means that the strength and pace of loosening must be manipulated, and flooding must not be carried out. The growth rate of M2 and social financing must be maintained within a reasonable range. Bank credit must be in line with actual conditions. Matching capital needs to prevent illegal flow of credit funds into the stock market and the property market, resulting in idling of funds.

　　Dong Ximiao believes that for some time to come, we must continue to make good use of structural monetary policy tools, resolutely refrain from "overflow irrigation", and strive to achieve "precise drip irrigation", enhance the pertinence and timeliness of monetary policy, and improve accuracy and directness.

Accelerate the implementation of various policies and measures to support small and micro enterprises and manufacturing in the early stage, improve the efficiency of monetary policy transmission on the basis of marketization and rule of law, and ensure that the manufacturing, small and micro enterprises and other key areas and weak links have a significant increase in financing , The first loan rate and renewal rate increased significantly.

　　The "Report on China's Monetary Policy Implementation in the Second Quarter of 2020" released by the Central Bank in August proposed that monetary and credit policies should be used to promote economic structural adjustment and better serve the real economy.

Further improve the "three-tier and two-optimized" deposit reserve framework, and establish and improve a long-term mechanism for banks to increase loans to small and micro enterprises.

(Finish)