The central bank's reverse repurchase on the 3rd massively increased the volume to 120 billion in September liquidity may improve

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, September 3rd, on the 3rd, the central bank announced that in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, it has carried out a reverse repurchase operation of 120 billion yuan for 7 days through interest rate bidding, and the winning interest rate is 2.20%.

On that day, 100 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired.

It is worth noting that the central bank carried out 20 billion yuan reverse repurchase operations on August 31, September 1, and September 2, and today's reverse repurchase operations have increased significantly.

Many institutions believe that the central bank’s idea of ​​maintaining reasonable and adequate liquidity will not change, and that liquidity will improve in September.

Screenshot of the central bank website

　　Wind data shows that this week, the central bank’s open market will have 750 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, of which 100 billion yuan, 250 billion yuan, 200 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan and 100 billion yuan will expire from Monday to Friday. Repurchase, central bank bills, etc. expire.

　　Recently, the central bank has continued to make large-scale net withdrawals in the open market, but the willingness to contribute capital mainly by large banks has increased, and the inter-bank market funding supply is acceptable. The overnight repo weighted interest rate has declined slightly, and the seven-day period has continued to focus on 2.2%. 1. The open market reverse repurchase wind vane is narrowed.

　　The central bank has been conducting reverse repurchase operations for 17 working days in August, with a total volume of 2 trillion yuan and a net investment of more than 500 billion yuan.

Second, there is little pressure on the open market to expire.

Third, the central bank's idea of ​​maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity will not change.

In September, the funding is expected to relax marginally with the continuous release of fiscal funds. It is expected that DR001 will operate between 1.8% and 2%, and DR007 will be between 2% and 2.2%.

　　CITIC Fixed Income pointed out that for the bond market, interest rate bonds have accumulated a certain safety cushion after the continued adjustment of capital pressures. In the short term, we can pay attention to the chance of oversold rebound after the falsification of expectations of tight liquidity, and maintain The 10-year Treasury bond yield to maturity is in a neutral range of 2.8% to 3.0%.

Guojin Securities said that overall, liquidity in September will improve.

September’s contribution to liquidity is likely to be fiscal investment. The fiscal expenditure from January to July this year is slower, 4.78 percentage points lower than last year. The progress will be gradually accelerated in the future. It is estimated that fiscal investment in September may release about 600 billion yuan. The liquidity of yuan may hit a record high over the same period in history.

Ping An Securities said that at the level of central bank liquidity, September was a big month for fiscal expenditures, and fiscal deposits decreased.

Liquidity investment is expected to increase steadily.

The pressure on the supply of interest rate bonds is still relatively large. In terms of inter-bank liquidity, structural deposit pressure drop is superimposed on the maturity of certificates of deposit, and it is difficult to alleviate the pressure on bank liabilities.

Funds will remain tightly balanced in September.

In September, we must pay more attention to the trend of U.S. debt and the pressure on the bond market from the rebound in domestic commodity prices.

The economic data in August was affected by the second floods, and it may not be able to greatly improve beyond expectations. The improvement of funds at the beginning of the month will bring certain trading opportunities to the bond market. It is recommended to pay attention to CDB products and short-term products.

Overall, the performance of the bond market in September remains cautious.

Sun Guofeng, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, previously stated that the uncertainty brought about by the epidemic has increased, and that monetary policy needs to have greater certainty to deal with various uncertainties, that is, the three constants: the orientation of prudent monetary policy remains unchanged. The requirements for flexible and moderate operation remain unchanged, and the determination to adhere to the normal monetary policy remains unchanged.

He also said that the future trend of LPR depends on factors such as macroeconomic trends, inflation, and supply and demand in the loan market, depending on the market-based quotation of the quotation bank.

It is expected that subsequent corporate loan interest rates will fall further.

　　Lian Ping, the council of the China Chief Economist Forum, believes that the monetary policy adjustment effect of the loose total amount in the early period is significant. The future monetary policy will take a long-term view and serve the brand-new economic development goals. All-round RRR cuts or interest rate cuts will be more cautious. The current loose monetary environment will not be significantly reversed, and adequate liquidity and appropriate capital costs will still escort the steady recovery of the economy.

　　In terms of exchange rates, data from the Foreign Exchange Trading Center showed that on the 3rd, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose by 57 basis points to 6.8319, a four-day rise, a record high since May 13, 2019.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)