Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, September 4 (Feng Fang) at 24:00 on the 4th, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open again.
According to agency forecasts, international oil prices fluctuate at a high level. Affected by this, the new round of refined oil price adjustments is likely to be stranded, and domestic oil prices may suspend their pace of rising.
Data map: Gas station.
Photo by Sino-Singapore Jingwei Wan Keyi
High is blocked, international oil prices have fallen sharply
In this round of pricing cycle, international oil prices rose briefly after a short sideways in the initial stage, setting new highs in recent months, and then fell back after being blocked, and both US and Burundi oils fell more than 2% in a single day.
In the early hours of the 3rd Beijing time, international oil prices dropped significantly.
WTI October crude oil futures prices fell 1.25 US dollars to close at 41.51 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 2.92%; Brent November crude oil futures prices fell 1.15 US dollars to close at 44.43 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 2.52%.
Liu Biao, a refined oil analyst at Zhongyu Information, pointed out that the recent support for the international crude oil market mainly comes from the supply side. Under the influence of the hurricane, some drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were closed, crude oil production was reduced, and US crude oil inventories continued to decline. Oil prices are rising.
However, the market failed to continue the unilateral market. International oil prices were quickly blocked at high levels. The main resistance came from the demand side. The hurricane not only affected oil production, but also restricted the demand for cars, and the epidemic continued to spread.
The fermentation of negative factors has caused the crude oil market to present a long-short situation, and international oil prices have fallen into high volatility, making the current round of refined oil price adjustments to be stranded.
Haitong Futures believes that from the US Energy Information Administration data, due to the impact of the hurricane, US crude oil inventories have fallen sharply by more than 9 million barrels, and US crude oil production has also decreased by 1.1 million barrels. The hurricane has a huge impact on both the supply side and the demand side. US refineries The operating rate has fallen below 80%.
On the whole, the data is still bullish. US crude oil inventories have fallen for six consecutive weeks, but the bears took it as a sign of exhaustion of bullish profits and significantly suppressed oil prices.
If the price continues to fall sharply, the market logic may change. If the price returns to the original range, the volatile market will continue.
Domestic oil prices may be stranded for the eleventh time this year
Liu Biao said that due to the high volatility of international oil prices, the crude oil market lacks directional guidance for the refined oil market, and the adjustment of refined oil prices has been expected to be stranded.
According to Jinlianchuang’s calculations, as of the ninth working day on September 3, the average price of reference crude oil was US$44.90/barrel, with a change rate of 0.11%. The corresponding increase in the retail price of gasoline and diesel was RMB 5/ton, which did not exceed The price adjustment boundary of 50 yuan/ton, this round of price adjustment may be stranded.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client noticed that if the above forecast is fulfilled, the stranding will be the eleventh time that domestic refined oil price adjustments have been stranded this year, and six of them have failed to adjust due to triggering the "floor price" protection mechanism.
Up to now, the domestic refined oil market has experienced 16 rounds of price adjustment windows this year, showing a pattern of "3 up, 3 down, 10 stranded".
In the last round of price adjustments, the prices of gasoline and diesel were increased by RMB 85/ton and RMB 80/ton respectively. At present, the price of gasoline has been reduced by RMB 1,545/ton, and the price of diesel has been reduced by RMB 1,490/ton.
The next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on September 18, 2020. Li Yan, an oil analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that the recent positive factors in the international crude oil market are still stable, and the probability of the next round of domestic refined oil prices is expected to increase.
Jinlianchuang analyst Bian Wenjing said that in the outlook, international crude oil may maintain a narrow range of shocks, mostly due to fundamental restraints, and lack of rebound momentum, which will hardly have obvious support for the domestic refined oil market.
The wait-and-see mood in the market is difficult to eliminate in the short term, downstream businesses are cautious about buying into the market, the overall transaction atmosphere in the market remains thin, and the increase in refined oil prices is limited.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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