(Economic Observation) "Internal and external" concurrently to protect people's livelihood under the new pattern of "dual cycle" of Chinese economy

  China News Service, Beijing, September 3rd, title: "Internal and external" concurrently to protect people's livelihood under the new "double cycle" pattern of China's economy

  China News Agency reporter Ruan Yulin

  "1 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below) special treasury bonds," "19 billion yuan of consumer coupons," "reduction of 1.6 trillion yuan for enterprises"... Since the outbreak, the central and local governments at all levels have introduced a series of measures to support enterprises, Promote consumption, stabilize employment, and protect people's livelihood.

Experts pointed out that the "dual cycle" new development pattern will become the strategic main axis of China's economic development for a period of time in the future, and will have a significant impact and positive significance for stabilizing growth and protecting people's livelihood.

Responding to the epidemic: multiple measures to ensure the quality of life of residents

  “The impact of the epidemic on economic operations is the first to bear the brunt of the normal operations of small, medium and micro enterprises and export companies. In turn, the epidemic has a direct impact on the employment and income of residents.” Chief Economist of Centaline Bank, China International Economic Exchange Center Academic Committee member Wang Jun said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency a few days ago.

  Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the national per capita disposable income was 15,666 yuan, a nominal increase of 2.4% over the same period last year.

Excluding the price factor, the actual decrease was 1.3%.

  In order to fully respond to the impact of the epidemic, under the unified deployment and leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, relevant departments have taken active actions and adopted many effective measures to protect people's livelihood, including financial institutions to increase credit, implement deferred debt repayment, and cut profits and fees for enterprises. ; The financial department reduces taxes and fees, provides discounts on loans, allows companies to postpone or reduce payment of the "five insurances and one housing fund", and expand infrastructure investment to hedge the impact of the epidemic.

  "Overall, the rescue and support policies for small and micro enterprises and residents are relatively timely and have a certain positive effect," said Wang Jun. However, these measures are passed on to SMEs and SMEs through the industry chain. In the hands of individuals, the chain is relatively long, which is not enough to continue to expand residents' income, stabilize consumption expectations, and improve residents' welfare.

Fiscal force: the policy of choice to protect people's livelihood and stabilize consumption

  In order to boost consumer confidence, many parts of the country are issuing consumer vouchers to stimulate consumption.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, as of the beginning of May, 28 provinces and cities, and more than 170 prefectures and cities have coordinated local government and social funds, and cumulatively issued more than 19 billion consumer vouchers.

Some organizations estimate that corporate-linked banks and merchants issue 10 billion yuan in consumer vouchers, and the total amount of consumer vouchers issued nationwide currently exceeds 30 billion yuan.

  Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that in the past five years, the contribution rate of consumption to the national economy has remained at around 60%.

At present, China's stable economic growth relies more on consumption.

  "But the policy of promoting consumption should not be short-term, nor should it encourage impulsive consumption. Instead, it should achieve the goal of continuously releasing consumption potential by improving the quality and level of supply," said Zhao Ping.

  "Bailing out enterprises and protecting people's livelihood is an important task and long-term task for a period of time in the future. Financial means should be the first choice for policies to protect people's livelihood and stabilize consumption." Wang Jun believes that the future bailout of market players and the benefits of people's livelihood To improve, we still need to rely on fiscal power.

  Regarding the 1 trillion yuan in anti-epidemic special treasury bonds, Wang Jun said that he hopes to make good use of this money and use part of it to help enterprises and low-income groups.

  A new report from the research team of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University suggests that the epidemic should prevent low-income people from falling into poverty and returning to poverty.

In order to "protect the family", it is recommended that the local and even the central government allocate special funds to resolutely increase targeted support for low-income groups.

New pattern of "dual cycle": stable growth and protection of people's livelihood

  Currently, the overseas epidemic is still spreading, and the trend of the epidemic is still uncertain.

Wang Jun said that in this complex external environment and international background, the proposal to "accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the mutual promotion of the domestic and international dual cycles" has a significant impact on stable growth and safeguarding people's livelihood. significance.

  Wang Jun believes that the "dual cycle" first means building a domestic cycle based on domestic demand.

Unblocking the domestic cycle requires supply-side structural reforms, opening up the bridge connection mechanism between income distribution and circulation exchange, and organically combining production and consumption, not only supporting the huge domestic market demand through strong production capacity, but also through the huge domestic market body. Re-feeding production transformation and upgrading to achieve high-quality development.

  At the same time, it is necessary to develop social productivity and stimulate market vitality through income distribution reform, and to promote the sound operation of the domestic cycle by strengthening the circulation system, connecting the production side and the consumption side.

  Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, believes that the new "dual cycle" pattern will become the strategic main axis of China's economic development in the future.

In order to smoothly advance the transformation of this development model, in addition to making breakthroughs in key core technology areas, the income of residents will be increased quickly in the distribution link, and the domestic terminal consumption capacity will be improved. This will be a large domestic economy that unblocks production, distribution, circulation, and consumption. The strategic pivot of the cycle.

  "This can not only alleviate the impact of the future slowdown in commodity export growth on economic development, but also effectively solve the problem of long-term economic imbalances, allowing more people to share the fruits of economic development," said Wang Qing.

  Wang Jun suggested that from the perspective of protecting people's livelihood in the medium and long term, it is necessary to attach great importance to the continuous increase of residents' income from a strategic perspective.

Continue to formulate the "Resident Income Doubling Plan" and include it in the "14th Five-Year Plan". This is the key to fundamentally activating consumption and continuing to promote economic growth.

(Finish)