Business activity in the Russian manufacturing industry increased in August.

According to the analytical agency IHS Markit, this sector of the country's economy showed expansion for the first time in almost a year and a half, and the PMI index rose above the critical mark of 50 points and reached 51.1 points.

Traditionally, the PMI index reflects the real state of a particular sector.

A value above 50 points indicates a positive economic situation, below 50 points indicates stagnation in the industry.

“The sector has shown expansion for the first time since April 2019 amid accelerated production growth and renewed new orders.

As a result, employment contracted at the slowest rate in a year, as the rate of decline in unfinished orders also slowed, ”says the IHS Markit report.

Note that back in April 2020, against the background of the introduction of quarantine measures and the massive closure of enterprises due to the coronavirus pandemic, the industrial PMI index decreased to 31.3 points.

The value became the lowest over the entire observation period (since September 1997).

However, as noted by IHS Markit experts, the observed recovery of the indicator and the rise of the PMI index above 50 points indicate "the first recovery in the Russian manufacturing sector in more than a year."

The outlined growth in business activity is largely due to the lifting of quarantine restrictions, the gradual return of enterprises to work, and the revival of consumer demand.

This point of view in a conversation with RT was expressed by the head of the laboratory of the Institute of Applied Economic Research, RANEPA, Alexander Abramov.

“In connection with the abolition of quarantine, a business began to be launched, which entailed filling the deficit in consumption.

In general, such recovery growth is positive for the economy, as it contributes to a decrease in the unemployment rate, an increase in household incomes and an inflow of tax revenues to the budget.

All this gives hope that by the end of the year the drop in GDP will not be as critical as expected and will amount to no more than 5%, "Abramov believes.

In addition, state support measures in a pandemic had a positive impact on the industrial sector, says Artyom Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets.

In particular, we are talking about providing credit vacations, direct payments, as well as soft loans and tax breaks for companies and entrepreneurs.

“The greatest efficiency during self-isolation was shown by tax incentives and affordable loans for the payment of wages for Russian enterprises.

It was they who made it possible to preserve not only the companies and factories themselves, but also a large percentage of the personnel, ”Deev explained.

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Economic Development, within the framework of three concessional lending programs, Russian banks have approved loans to businesses totaling more than 1 trillion rubles.

Companies affected by the coronavirus have issued almost 38 thousand interest-free loans in the amount of 96 billion rubles, 148 thousand loan agreements at 2% per annum in the amount of 347 billion and 9 thousand agreements at an 8.5% annual rate for 601 billion rubles.

Recall that the money received by the enterprise must be used to pay salaries to staff at the rate of one minimum wage (12,130 rubles) per employee.

At the same time, the loan itself can be partially or completely written off if employers keep their jobs.

“Now enterprises and companies have to work in double volume in order to compensate for losses from downtime, and to bring ready-made indicators to the norm, bypassing the crisis as soon as possible.

At the moment, employees and management are counting on the fact that first domestic and then external demand will increase, as borders with different countries open, ”added Artem Deev.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, in July the rate of decline in industrial production in annual terms slowed down to 8% compared to 9.4% in June.

However, by the end of 2020, the indicator may decline by 4-5%.

This was announced earlier by the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov, TASS reports.

Moreover, already in 2021, industrial production should return to pre-crisis levels.

This opinion was voiced the day before by the presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin.

“The recovery phase (of the economy -

RT

)

will begin in autumn

, it is important to support it.

I believe that next year we can return to pre-crisis levels - both in terms of employment and output, ”said Oreshkin.