The Democratic and Republican Conventions have just concluded. Wall Street is, again, breaking records. Large US companies have started a new wave of layoffs : American Airlines and United Airlines are going to cut staff by 53,000 employees; Boeing, at 19,000, and the hospitality and gaming giant MGM Resorts, at 18,000.

Few can analyze that contradictory scenario better than Libby Cantrill , the director of Public Affairs for Pimco , the world's largest fixed income manager, which is itself owned by the German insurance giant Allianz , although it operates autonomously.

What is your forecast of the economic impact of Covid-19? That is a question for our economists. But our vision is clear: with the coronavirus, the economy has gone down by elevator, but it is going to go up the stairs. What we lost in two months is going to take us two years to recover, so there is a lot of uncertainty. There is little more than two months left until the United States elections. How will the pandemic affect? ​​Covid-19 has not only affected the economy, but also politics. The reason is that Donald Trump was going to base his campaign for re-election on the economy, so the pandemic has dramatically changed our forecasts for the elections ... Against Trump ... Yes. If we had done this interview six months ago, I would have answered your questions by citing all the structural advantages that the president of the United States has to win reelection, ranging from his ability to attract the attention of public opinion to the time with the that counts to organize his campaign and collect donations while the opposition is still searching for its candidate. An American president in office is hard to beat. In modern times, the only people who have not been re-elected are those who have had to face a recession a year or two before the election. What would be the market reaction in the event of a Biden victory? It depends largely on what that passes in Congress [on November 3, the US renews the entire House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 members of the Senate]. If the Democrats 'sweep', the market will expect more support for the economy from the state, because this is the traditional position of that party. That means more investment in infrastructure, in aid to combat the coronavirus, in health ... That will not prevent there are some sectors in which the reaction may be negative. Biden has come up with an ambitious 'green' energy plan, so traditional energy companies, which rely more on fossil fuels, may be negatively impacted. It is also possible that, if Biden wins, there will be a sale of shares of companies in the pharmaceutical sector. But, in any case, it must be taken into consideration that, whoever wins, neither of the two parties will have a clear majority in the Senate. That means there will be no dramatic changes in economic policy, because that chamber will be divided almost in half. Does Covid-19 make surveys more reliable or exacerbate methodological problems in conducting them? I don't do surveys, so I depend on what the experts tell me. And their view is that with the pandemic people are more at home, so it is easier to 'catch' them with landlines, so the polls are, they say, more robust than in 2016. Also, when you look at the dynamics from voting intention, it is seen that it has been more stable than in 2016. Biden has been consistently ahead of Trump since the beginning of the campaign. This is a significant difference from four years ago, when, at one point, Hillary Cliton and Donald Trump were practically tied. This situation also occurs both at the national level and at the decisive states, which for us are five: Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and, especially, Florida. So what we say to our clients is to pay special attention to those states. That doesn't mean things are immutable, of course. Surveys can change, as can the economic situation, or the perception of Americans of the situation in the country. But for now, those three elements are negative for Trump.

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