(Economic Observer) How to go in September after A-shares closed down slightly in August and lost 3400 points?
China News Service, Beijing, August 31 (Reporter Xia Bin) Throughout August, the Shanghai Composite Index has launched multiple "impacts" aiming at the 3,400 point. On the last trading day of August, the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3442.74 points in the intraday session, but fell to 3395.68 points, a decrease of 0.24%.
As of the close of the day, the Shenzhen Component Index reported 13758.23 points, down 0.67%, with a turnover of 597.5 billion yuan (RMB, the same below); the ChiNext Index reported 272831 points, down 1.07%, with a turnover of 253 billion yuan.
From the perspective of the disk, the financial sector as a whole is relatively active, the chemical and digital currency sectors have also risen, liquor stocks have once again strengthened, and Kweichow Moutai has reached the 1,800 yuan mark for the first time in the trading session, setting a record high.
Looking at the performance of A-shares in August as a whole, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.59%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.88%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 2.40%. The three major stock indexes were all in a range of fluctuations after their rebound. The stable performance reflected in the operation and the interim performance disclosure of listed companies, the index has stabilized and upward, and the market is currently mainly volatile and rebound.
CICC issued a document saying that in August, investors' risk appetite declined compared with that in early July, and transactions gradually declined, but the overall index still maintained a volatile upward trend. "If there are no obvious catalysts for events in the recent market, we believe this trend may continue in the short term."
So, how will A shares perform in September? CITIC Securities analysts believe that A shares will start a mid-term rise driven by incremental funds in September.
From the perspective of funding, CITIC Securities Research said that overseas monetary easing is expected to strengthen. It is expected that the easing cycle of the US dollar will continue at least until the second quarter of next year, while domestic policies are "oriented" rather than "turned", and structural liquidity guidance is also It is more conducive to the stock market. The trend of increasing the allocation of equity assets by the residential sector is also continuing. The attractiveness of A-shares relative to other assets has increased. Under the comprehensive factors, the inflow of A-shares in September is expected to accelerate again.
On the other hand, the dissipation of disturbance factors in the international situation and the domestic market has also opened up room for A shares; the domestic economy will quickly return to a normalized level month by month and quarter by quarter, and the outstanding performance of fundamentals will also lift the bottom line of the market.
"The accelerated recovery of performance will provide a stable upward momentum for the market." The China Merchants Securities research team gave such a judgment.
In the view of the research team, entering September, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards. Due to the accelerated improvement of corporate profitability, fundamental-driven characteristics have become more obvious. In July, the single-month industrial corporate profit growth rate rebounded to nearly 20%. As the pre-launched projects are concentrated in the construction period, and the base figure of the same period last year is low, it is expected that the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises will continue to rise and reach the peak of the growth rate in the first quarter of next year.
CICC stated that in the medium term, considering that the domestic economic growth recovery is still deepening, the prevention and control of the epidemic is ahead of the periphery, and there is room for policy, it still maintains a positive attitude towards the market performance in the medium term.
Hu Guopeng, chief analyst of Founder Securities’ strategy, believes that the A-share market is expected to enter a rest period in September, and the overall situation will be volatile, but the risk of a sharp fall is relatively limited. The reasons are as follows: First, it is too early for the liquidity inflection point to appear, and second, domestic policies are proactive.
Guan Tao, the global chief economist of Bank of China Securities, recently stated that the A-share market has performed relatively steadily in the epidemic this year. What the market lacks is not capital but confidence. The government needs to form effective channels to guide market expectations and stabilize market confidence. China The development of the capital market will become more stable. (Finish)