As a frontier city of China's reform and opening up, Shenzhen's housing prices have attracted people's attention as much as reforms.
One and a half months after the release of the "7.15" property market regulation and control policy, Zhang Xuefan, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Director of the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau, said that Shenzhen housing should learn from the "Singapore Model", which once again sparked heated discussions on the direction of Shenzhen's next property market regulation.
Data map: Night view of Shenzhen Civic Center. China News Agency reporter Chen Wenshe
On August 28th, Zhang Xuefan gave a speech at the Shenzhen Real Estate Ceremony and Industry Comprehensive Evaluation Conference (hereinafter referred to as "the press conference"), proposing that Singapore is a model for Shenzhen to learn from, and in the future 60% of Shenzhen citizens will live in government-provided leases or sales In the housing.
To this end, Shenzhen proposed a large-scale housing construction operation. Zhang Xuefan said that large-scale housing construction activities include commercial housing and public housing. Among them, the public rental housing sector has a development goal of 1.1 million public rental housing, and 100,000 public rental housing units are built every year. Shenzhen will make up for its shortcomings through five or even eight years, and strive to better alleviate the contradiction between housing supply and demand. In this way, the real estate market can be stabilized and citizens can move from "housing to live" to "housing to live".
According to Zhang Xuefan, another goal of Shenzhen is to increase the per capita housing area from 27.8 square meters to 30 square meters during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
The information disclosed by Zhang Xuefan has aroused heated discussions in the industry. This year marks the 40th anniversary of the establishment of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone and the first anniversary of Shenzhen’s approval of a pilot demonstration zone for socialism with Chinese characteristics. The industry believes that the trend of Shenzhen's real estate market has a sign of significance, which means that the pattern of Shenzhen's real estate market will face tremendous changes.
How to learn the "Singapore Model"
Singapore began to implement the "Home Ownership" program in 1964 to encourage middle-income and low-income groups to purchase HDB flats built by the HDB, establishing a housing security that is completely different from that of most developed countries based on public rental or rent subsidies. system. As of 2016, up to 82% of citizens live in HDB flats, and both the home ownership rate and HDB ownership rate are above 90%.
In the past 40 years, Shenzhen's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has grown from 169 million yuan to 2.69 trillion yuan, a 10,000-fold increase.
In 2019, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Shenzhen was 62,500 yuan, ranking first among all special economic zones. The resident population is approximately 13.44 million. Over the past 40 years, the resident population has increased by about 42 times. During the same period, the population of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou increased by 1-2.5 times.
However, inconsistent with this, the per capita living area in Shenzhen is 27.8 square meters, which has not yet reached the national and Guangdong provincial minimum standards. The main reason is that more than 70% of the people in Shenzhen live in urban villages, which occupy the housing area of Shenzhen. About 54% of the total.
In addition, according to the "Housing Development 2020 Implementation Plan" issued by the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-rural Development in April this year, residential land in Shenzhen accounts for 22.6% of the city's total construction land, which is lower than the lower limit of 25% to 40% in the relevant national standards.
On the one hand, the rapid growth of population and economy, on the other hand, the land use is greatly restricted. As a result, Shenzhen has become one of the cities with the sharpest new housing supply and population growth among many cities in China, which has caused Shenzhen's housing prices to remain high.
According to data from the Zhongzhi Research Institute, in 2019, the average transaction price of commercial residential buildings in Shenzhen was 55,821 yuan/m2, more than 2.3 times the 23,973 yuan/m2 in 2014. The current average price fluctuates around 65,000/㎡.
In order to fundamentally solve this contradiction, Shenzhen is constantly trying to resolve it.
Increasing supply is one way. In 2019, Shenzhen's real estate investment reached 305.9 billion yuan, 2.86 times that of 2014's 106.9 billion yuan. In 2019, the added value of Shenzhen's real estate reached 228.5 billion yuan, an increase of 73% from 2014's 132.4 billion yuan.
Zhang Xuefan pointed out at the press conference that the positioning of "housing to live without speculation" is the fundamental basis for establishing a long-term mechanism for the real estate market. Adhering to the positioning of "housing to live without speculation" and returning housing to the attributes of people's livelihood reflects the people-centered development concept and is a necessary prerequisite for building a benchmark city for people's livelihood happiness.
"The long-term mechanism can have many measures, the most important of which is the establishment of a stable housing supply system covering the whole society." Zhang Xuefan said that the core of this system is to vigorously develop public housing. Our goal is to allow 60% of Shenzhen citizens to live in government-provided rented or sold housing. This is a long-term goal. The "Singapore Model" can be used as a reference for establishing a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of real estate.
Senior real estate commentator Zhu Luoji told CBN reporters that the top-level design concept of the "Singapore Model" is very good. The direction of our learning should be "God" instead of "Shape", and more should be learned from Singapore. The solution to the housing problem should really be to treat housing as a commodity for the people’s livelihood, and not to transform the housing market into a financial market.
"Shenzhen learns from the Singapore model, but it does not mean copying it." Song Ding, deputy director of the China Urban Economic Experts Committee, told the China Business News reporter that if we introduce the Singapore model, it will largely solve the problem of uneven development in Shenzhen. However, the Singapore model needs to be tested. It is necessary to solve the new problems brought about by this new model as much as possible and reduce the shock of the new problems to the market.
Way: Increase the proportion of urban residential land
After decades of development in my country's real estate industry, the domestic housing model has also experienced several different periods.
At the end of the 1990s, the Southeast Asian financial turmoil had a huge impact on my country's economy. Coupled with the need to improve housing conditions, it became an opportunity for the real estate industry to move towards marketization.
"After the housing reform in 1998, China's housing model has actually moved to a'GDP model' and an'economic driven model'." Zhu Luoji believes that the "GDP model" brought about high housing prices and insufficient per capita housing space. The reasonable solution to the problem is to increase the supply of commercial housing by increasing the proportion of residential land in key cities, and at the same time match demand control to stabilize real estate prices.
Song Ding also expressed similar views to a reporter from China Business News. He believes that Shenzhen has been more of a market-oriented model in the past 20 years. While greatly promoting the development of real estate, it has also brought some disadvantages, such as rising housing prices, Structural imbalance of supply and demand, etc.
"At present, the Shenzhen market still needs more types and forms of housing, especially affordable housing." Song Ding said that a large city like Shenzhen, with a large number of people entering, cannot fully meet market needs in terms of housing supply. . Through such models to ensure the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry, and insist on housing and not speculation, in line with such a big principle, various beneficial explorations can be launched.
Zhang Xuefan stated at the above-mentioned press conference that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Shenzhen will make some adjustments in land supply. The proportion of residential land in construction land will increase from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to 25%, and even in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Increase to 30% in the first two or three years of "Five".
Future housing prices in Shenzhen: average price drops, unit price remains
Shenzhen has learned the "Singapore Model", the proportion of affordable housing has increased, and the proportion of commercial housing has decreased. Where will Shenzhen's housing prices go in the future?
Singapore has now formed a housing system composed of an affordable housing market dominated by HDBs and condominiums, and a private housing system dominated by mid- to high-end apartments and villas.
At the same time, in the "Singapore Model", it is stipulated that real and legal materials must be submitted to apply for HDB flats. If there is fraud, it will be fined or even imprisoned for 6 months. In addition, this type of real estate is also required not to be sold for 5 years, even if it enters the market after 5 years. The transaction needs to be reviewed and approved by the local government department and can only be sold to buyers who are qualified to purchase HDB flats. Such regulations basically eliminate the possibility of real estate speculation.
"In the future, a large number of affordable housing will enter the market. This type of real estate includes talented housing, residential housing, etc., and its price is definitely lower than the market price of commercial housing, or even less than half. It can be predicted that the average price of real estate in Shenzhen will be obvious in the future. Decline, but this does not mean that the price of the commercial housing market will fall.” Song Ding said that both the supply side and the demand side are squeezing the commercial housing market in Shenzhen. In fact, the supply and demand of commercial housing are still in balance. Under this circumstance, the commercial housing market will not experience a major decline. On the contrary, under the condition of good economic development, it may continue to rise slowly.
At the same time, under the "Singapore Model", what aspects should real estate developers pay attention to?
Song Ding said that under this trend, real estate companies will have a narrower operating space in commercial housing in the future, and the tasks of affordable housing will increase. But at the same time, the government also has certain requirements for real estate companies involved in the construction of affordable housing. Since the public welfare components of affordable housing are more, the income will be narrowed. For small real estate companies, the pressure to build such projects will be greater. State-owned real estate companies or some super-large real estate companies with a strong sense of mission will actively enter.
"But this will also make the real estate enterprises participating in the future commercial housing construction in Shenzhen face more fierce competition." Song Ding believes that "at present, real estate enterprises across the country are actively pouring into the Shenzhen market, but as the proportion of affordable housing increases, the proportion of commercial housing It will shrink, and it also means that some companies may be eliminated.
Author: Huang Qiong