China News Service, Beijing, August 27 (Reporter Zhou Rui) In response to the recent disclosure of multiple economic indicators, Kang Yong, chief economist of KPMG China, said on the 27th that a series of signs show that the Chinese economy will continue to maintain a recovery trend. The quarterly value-added is expected to "compensate" the losses in the first quarter due to the epidemic, and achieve a positive GDP growth rate.

  In the first quarter of 2020, affected by the epidemic, China's GDP growth rate dropped by 6.8% year-on-year. As China contained the epidemic and took the lead in resuming work and production. China's quarterly GDP growth rate turned positive in the second quarter, achieving a growth of 3.2%. In the first half of the year, China’s GDP fell by 1.6% year-on-year.

  Kang Yong pointed out that after entering the third quarter, many economic indicators in China continued to improve. Data such as power generation, coal consumption, and excavator sales show that production activities have accelerated repairs. Exports remain strong and drive the growth of related manufacturing industries.

  In Kang Yong's view, despite the impact of the epidemic, major overseas economies have fallen into recession, which has affected external consumer demand to some extent. However, the spread of the epidemic has made overseas anti-epidemic materials and "home economy" in greater demand.

  The latest data in July showed that exports of textiles, medical instruments and equipment including masks denominated in renminbi increased by 35.8% and 52.4% respectively. The increase in consumption of the "home economy" led to a 6.5% increase in exports of data processing equipment such as mobile phones and laptops. 6%.

  On the other hand, Kang Yong pointed out that with China's resumption of work and production, major overseas manufacturing production bases still face greater challenges, and this situation will also boost China's exports to a certain extent.

  In addition to exports, Kang Yong pointed out that with the gradual normalization of offline service-related economic activities, the recovery of residents' consumption in entertainment, catering, and tourism is also expected to become the bright spot of China's economy in the second half of the year.

  However, he also reminded that due to factors such as epidemic prevention and control, China's economic recovery on the demand side in the first half of the year was slower than on the production side. In the future, it will be necessary to vibrate consumption in many ways:

  The first is to stabilize the employment situation and increase residents' income. Kang Yong said that the uncertainty of future economic expectations and the decline in real income led to increased household savings and reduced expenditures, which were the main reasons why China's consumer demand remained sluggish in the first half of the year. Next, only by solving the employment problem of key groups and increasing the sustainable income of residents, can the consumption tendency of the residential sector be gradually improved, and then the advantage of China's super-large market can be brought into play.

  The second is to focus on low-income groups. Kang Yong said that the epidemic has a greater impact on low-income groups and freelance groups. In the future, how to take measures to ensure the income of rural areas and families in need will be vital to revitalizing the sinking market in China's lower-tier cities, counties and rural areas.

  There is also room for investment. Kang Yong said that as of July, real estate and infrastructure investment had returned to the same period in 2019, but the performance of manufacturing investment remained weak. The government should continue to increase policy support for private enterprises, promote the market-oriented reform of factors by creating a market environment for fair competition, and improve the efficiency of resource allocation. (Finish)