INTERVIEW
The government will cut down, next week, its trump card in an attempt to raise an economy depressed by the coronavirus crisis: a recovery plan in the amount of 100 billion euros and spread over several areas. Will the executive have to go even further if the electroshock is not enough? "If the economy is showing signs of weakness, more will have to be done," warns economist Jean Pisani-Ferry, guest of Europe Soir , Monday.
>> Find Europe Soir with Julian Bugier in replay and podcast here
"We had a good momentum to restart the economy in May and June but we feel that things are running out of steam," notes Julian Bugier at the microphone, the one who coordinated Emmanuel Macron's economic program in 2017. "Consumption has restarted well but it is 7% below the normal level. Are we continuing at the start of the school year? " He also believes that the postponement of one week of the announcement of the recovery plan because of the health situation is not really detrimental: "If it is postponed by a week, that does not change much- thing. It's not an emergency that can be counted in days. "
"Double crisis" of supply and demand
According to Jean Pisani-Ferry, professor at Sciences Po, the situation is therefore characterized by "a double crisis, with a demand which is not there and companies which have suffered enormously". In addition, "there are concerns, with the return of health challenges and a slew of bad news to come. This momentum must not be allowed to break." This is the reason why "more will have to be done if the economy shows signs of weakness", according to him.
The economist evokes several mechanisms which are not included in the recovery plan of 100 billion euros and which could help the French economy. According to him, we must do more than the 100 euros of Back-to-school Allowance ", because" it will be spent immediately. "The increase in this aid could reach" 200 "or" 300 euros. "" We have proposed green checks ”, he also details, certain that we must act on“ things that stimulate consumption immediately ”.
An "extraordinary luck" in the face of debt?
This should further increase public debt, soon equivalent to more than 110% of France's gross domestic product (GDP). But this degradation is desirable because it makes it possible to "postpone the problem in time", advances Jean Pisani-Ferry. "It is better to prevent the French economy from sagging and we have very heavily affected strengths, such as aeronautics and tourism." And the economist sees an extraordinary chance in the current situation: "Interest rates are zero" and should weigh less on the repayment of the debt, a key mechanism to be taken into account in the collection of the debt.