15 provinces achieve positive investment growth, the role of investment accelerator is taking shape
At present, various localities are actively implementing various investment stabilization measures, and related policies have continued to exert effective results. At the same time, governments at all levels are paying more attention to the construction of projects such as "two new and one heavy", high-tech fields, and conversion of new and old kinetic energy. These positive changes have overall, fundamental, and strategic significance for economic and social development, indicating that China's high-quality development is advancing in depth.
In recent days, various localities have successively released the status of fixed asset investment and the completed investment of key projects in the first 7 months. Judging from the published data, fixed asset investment in various regions continues to show a momentum of recovery, and the progress of major investment projects is in line with expectations. "Two new and one heavy", industry, ecology, and people's livelihood are the investment priorities.
Experts believe that with the continuous efforts of the investment stabilization policy, the trend of monthly investment recovery has been formed, and the upward trend will continue in the future to help the economic recovery.
Investment growth in various regions continues to pick up
As of August 20, among the 19 provinces that have announced investment data for the first 7 months, 15 provinces have achieved positive growth in investment.
In the eastern region, Shanghai’s fixed asset investment from January to July increased by 9.0% year-on-year, 2.3 percentage points faster than the first half of the year; Hainan Province increased 5.6% year-on-year, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the first half of the year, and an increase from the same period last year 27.5 percentage points; Hebei Province increased by 1.0% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage point from the first half of the year; Zhejiang Province increased by 3.5% year-on-year.
In the central region, Shanxi's fixed asset investment increased by 8.5% from January to July, 0.2% faster than the first half of the year; Anhui Province increased by 1.1% year-on-year, 0.1% higher than the first half of the year; Jiangxi Province increased by 6.4% year-on-year. An increase of 0.6 percentage points over the first half of the year; Henan Province increased by 2.9% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than that from January to June.
In the western region, from January to July, fixed asset investment in Sichuan Province increased by 6.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded by 1.4 percentage points from the first half of the year; Gansu Province increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points higher than the first half of the year; Yunnan Province increased by 4.8% year-on-year %, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the first half of the year; Shaanxi Province increased by 1.2% year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points faster than the first half of the year; Qinghai Province's fixed asset investment of 5 million yuan and above increased by 2.0% over the same period of the previous year.
Even in provinces where investment growth has slowed, the rate of decline has continued to narrow. Among them, from January to July, Beijing’s fixed asset investment fell by 0.7% year-on-year, and the rate of decline was 0.8 percentage points lower than the first half of the year; Liaoning Province fell by 2.3% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed 0.4 percentage points from the first half of the year; Fujian Province fell 0.6% year-on-year , The rate of decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the first half of the year.
Investment in key areas continues to increase
The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on July 30 emphasized the need to take a long-term view, actively expand effective investment, and encourage social capital to participate. To accelerate the construction of new types of infrastructure, new types of urbanization must be used to drive investment and consumer demand.
According to statistics, from January to July this year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved 65 fixed-asset investment projects with a total investment of 532.6 billion yuan, mainly in the fields of transportation, high technology, energy, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy. At present, all localities are striving to promote the high-quality and efficient construction of major projects, and accelerate the formation of physical workloads.
Judging from recent announcements in various regions, investment in major projects in many provinces has completed 70% of the annual target. From January to July, Zhejiang Province completed investment in key construction projects of 316 billion yuan, 76.2% of the annual plan; Jiangxi Province completed investment of 169.103 billion yuan in key projects, accounting for 70.7% of the annual plan; Hunan Province completed 175 provincial key projects The investment is 220.959 billion yuan, which is 70.82% of the annual plan.
From the perspective of the investment field, focusing on adjusting the structure, making up for shortcomings, strengths and weaknesses, "two new and one heavy" has become the focus of investment in all regions. In Guizhou, the An-Liu high-speed railway was put into operation, and the construction of Duyun to Anshun and Nayong to Hezhang highways was accelerated. The planned number of 5G base stations was doubled to 20,000; in Hebei, new projects were mainly focused on "two new and one heavy." , Industrial upgrading, public services and other fields; in Zhejiang, among the key construction projects in the first half of the year, the investment in ecological environmental protection, urban renewal and water conservancy facilities projects was 80.4 billion yuan, and a number of water conservancy facilities projects in the sprint stage of completed construction played a key role in this year’s flood season. effect.
In addition, making up for shortcomings in county urbanization is also one of the priorities of this year's work. In May of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a relevant notice, and proposed 17 construction tasks in four major areas. As of the end of July, more than 120 billion yuan had been invested through channels such as investment in the central budget, corporate bonds, and development policy finance.
Meng Wei, a spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission, said that local governments will be guided to coordinate the use of various fiscal funds, actively attract social capital investment, establish a long-term mechanism for government-bank-enterprise docking, and increase support for medium and long-term credit and corporate bond financing. Focus on ensuring the implementation of various tasks of making up the shortcomings of county urbanization.
"It can be seen from the investment projects that are being vigorously promoted in various regions that the investment structure is continuously being adjusted and optimized. Governments at all levels generally pay more attention to the'two new and one heavy', high-tech fields, conversion of new and old kinetic energy, ecological environmental protection, and shortcomings. Project construction.” Wang Jun, chief economist of Centaline Bank and member of the Academic Committee of China International Economic Exchange Center, believes that these positive changes closely tie in with the focus of effective investment and are of overall, fundamental, and fundamental importance to economic and social development. It is of strategic significance and meets China's high-quality development and "dual cycle" investment.
Investment is expected to continue the upward trend
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, national fixed asset investment fell by 1.6% year-on-year, and the rate of decline was 1.5 and 14.5 percentage points smaller than those in the first half and the first quarter, respectively.
Wang Jun believes that while effectively preventing and controlling the epidemic, all localities actively implemented the "six stability" and "six guarantees" measures and increased investment stabilization, which played an important stabilizer role in stabilizing the operation of the national economy in the first half of the year. However, Wang Jun also said that from the latest national investment data released in July, it can be seen that although the investment decline is still narrowing and is close to turning positive, the speed of investment rebound has slowed down.
Currently, all localities are actively introducing measures to promote the recovery of private investment. From January to July this year, private investment in Gansu Province increased by 9.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5% higher than that from January to June; private investment in Yunnan Province increased by 9.5%; private investment in Shanxi Province increased by 8.0%; private investment in Shaanxi Province increased by 8.0% 0.9%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points.
At the same time, manufacturing investment in many places is also showing a recovery trend. From January to July, Shanxi's manufacturing investment increased by 12.6%; Fujian's manufacturing investment increased by 0.6% year-on-year; Guangxi's manufacturing investment achieved positive growth for the first time this year, with an increase of 1.5%; Ningxia's manufacturing investment fell by 3.8%, but the decline closed Narrowed by 2.5 percentage points.
Liu Lifeng, a researcher at the Investment Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said that although investment has not returned to the normal level of previous years, the trend of monthly recovery has taken shape. Judging from the current trend, investment in the third quarter will end the decline and resume growth. The annual investment growth rate may only be slightly lower than the previous year's level.
“On the whole, the rebound trend of investment in the second half of the year will continue, but the internal structure will show a differentiated and unbalanced pattern.” Wang Jun believes that as fiscal funds and financial support increase, the “two new and one heavy” and national Major strategic projects, poverty alleviation and pollution prevention and other short-term investment will continue to accelerate and assume the role of the main investment force. In terms of manufacturing investment, the recent improvement in internal demand in the manufacturing industry has been better than expected, and the profits of industrial enterprises have rebounded significantly, which has helped to push the decline in manufacturing investment to continue to narrow.
In addition, Wang Jun also said that floods in many places have dragged down the progress of infrastructure and real estate projects to a certain extent. At the same time, external demand is still in the contraction range, and will still be affected by more uncertain factors such as repeated epidemics and economic recession in the later period, which may reduce the willingness of enterprises to further expand capital expenditures and will restrict the rebound of manufacturing investment. (Xiong Li)