Can the "negative effect" of the epidemic continue to ferment the world economy?

The second quarter GDP of many countries announced the "negative effect" of the epidemic continues to ferment

Can the world economy "stop loss and return blood"? (Global Hotspot)

　　Recently, as many countries have successively announced economic data for the second quarter of this year, the heavy damage caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic to the world economy has been more intuitively presented to the world.

　　The U.S. economy recorded its biggest decline since the 1940s, Japan’s economy experienced negative growth for three consecutive quarters, and the U.K. economy fell into the first technical recession since the 2008 world financial crisis... Under the volatile epidemic, there are far more bad news than good news. Economic activities have been suppressed, personal consumption has fallen sharply, the unemployment crisis has become increasingly severe, and the world economy is falling into unprecedented difficulties. How to balance the prevention and control of the epidemic with economic recovery, countries urgently need to find an effective solution for both.

Multi-country economy lights up "red light"

　　Recently, economic data in the second quarter of this year have been released one after another, and the "red light" of the economies of many countries has been lit. According to the latest data released by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), among the 14 countries that disclosed actual gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter, the GDP growth rate of 13 member states is in a state of decline.

　　As one of the most severely affected regions in the world, the US economy cannot escape the shock. Data show that in the second quarter of this year, the US GDP fell by 32.9% annually, the largest decline since the 1940s. Bloomberg said in a statement that the US economy has fallen off a cliff. Analysis believes that under the epidemic, the number of unemployed surged, most of the companies and factories shut down, and the sharp contraction of consumer spending was the main reason for the US economic downturn in the second quarter.

　　The economic report cards of European countries in the second quarter were equally bleak. The National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom recently released data that the UK's GDP fell by 21.7% year-on-year from April to June, the biggest quarterly decline since 1955. The British "Guardian" pointed out that this is the first time the UK has officially announced that its economy has fallen into recession since the 2008 financial crisis.

　　The latest data released by the European Union show that compared with the same period last year, the 19-member euro zone contracted 40.3% in the second quarter. Among them, as the two major "growth engines" of the European economy, Germany's GDP contracted by 11.7% compared with the same period last year, and France's GDP fell by 19% compared with the same period last year.

　　On the other side of Eurasia, Japan is also facing its worst economic performance since World War II. The Japanese government recently announced data that due to the implementation of a state of emergency during the new crown pneumonia epidemic, various economic activities were restricted. From April to June this year, Japan's GDP fell at an annual rate of 27.8%, setting a record for the largest decline since World War II. Some analysts said that after the epidemic, economic growth under "Abenomics" was almost completely wiped out.

　　In addition, Russia, Thailand, Israel, Colombia, Finland, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and other countries have announced the second quarter economic data that their economies have shrunk to varying degrees.

　　"Affected by the epidemic, the economies of all countries in the world have generally experienced recessions, and they have been larger than previous recessions since World War II. They are very rare." Professor Wang Yong of the School of International Relations at Peking University said in an interview with our reporter.

　　International institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the OECD have also made judgments since April this year that the world economy has fallen into the worst recession since World War II or even the Great Depression of 1929.

The impact of the epidemic is rare and violent

　　Business closures, unemployment, economic downturn...This is no longer an isolated situation in a few countries. Why has the epidemic brought such a violent impact to the world economy?

　　"Under the background of high-level globalization, major countries around the world are almost simultaneously affected by the real economy from both the demand side and the supply side. This is unmatched by the economic and financial crisis caused by insufficient effective demand in history. "Feng Weijiang, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed in an interview with our reporter that the epidemic has inhibited the production, circulation, and consumption of major products and services, inhibited imports and exports, and affected the incomes of residents and enterprises. , Which in turn affects its expenditure and investment, and at the same time aggravates the fiscal pressure on government departments, and weakens its ability to resist the crisis and boost the economy through macroeconomic policies.

　　A recent study by the McKinsey Global Institute pointed out that production interruptions caused by the epidemic may cause losses to the global economy twice as much as hypothetical global military conflicts.

　　"In the era of economic globalization, the world economy, especially the economies of developed countries, is showing the characteristics of economic serviceization, financialization and international linkage. In developed countries, the service industry accounts for about 70% to 80% of GDP. The epidemic has deeply affected People's economic life and daily life, the economy is forced to press the pause button, which has a huge impact on the service industry economy and the real economy. In addition, the epidemic has forced a significant slowdown in investment, trade, and personnel exchanges between countries, and the negative results are directly It is reflected in the sharp decline in economic growth in the second quarter and throughout the year." Wang Yong said.

　　Facing the pressure of recession, some countries pressed the economic restart button urgently and adopted various measures to restore the economy. However, in the context of the inability to ensure that the epidemic is effectively controlled, once the epidemic rebounds, the situation may get worse.

　　ABC recently wrote an article that many states in the United States restarted their economies prematurely before the epidemic was under control. After that, the epidemic spread again, forcing many places to suspend economic restart plans, and a large number of companies had to scale down or even shut down business. It has caused a lot of impact on overseas partners. Some economists believe that the United States has become a weak link in the global economic recovery chain.

　　"Different from the economic impact caused by other factors such as military conflicts, the epidemic spreads quickly and is highly contagious. At present, as the world's largest economy, the United States is still a shortcoming in global epidemic prevention, which brings great impact to the world economy. Big hidden danger. If the epidemic in the United States is not controlled, it will continue to have a negative impact on world economic growth in the second half of this year and beyond.” Wang Yong said.

Out of the shadows need unity

　　The Spanish "Le Monde" website recently reported that major global multinational companies believe that the world economy will not return to the level before the epidemic before 2022. Even large companies with strong ability to withstand the crisis are not optimistic about the rapid realization of the world economy. "V" shaped recovery.

　　However, the positive news from China still gives the international community a lot of confidence. Statistics show that China's GDP grew by 3.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, becoming the first major economy to achieve growth after the outbreak. Some foreign media bluntly said that this economic data is "like the light at the end of a tunnel", giving people hope for other countries and the world economy to get out of trouble.

　　At present, many countries are actively looking for a way out, constantly adjusting epidemic prevention and restarting economic measures in light of their respective epidemic situation. In South America, where the current epidemic is relatively serious, the Chilean government has launched the "Gradually Revitalize Chile" national plan, which sets the goal of creating and promoting employment, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, and promoting institutional reforms to achieve national modernization; Argentina adopts hierarchical, zoning and phased management based on the epidemic. Efforts to balance epidemic prevention and people's livelihood.

　　Many European and American countries have successively launched a number of economic stimulus plans. The European Central Bank maintained its 1.35 trillion euro asset purchase plan unchanged. Analysis believes that the Bank of Japan may further expand its stimulus. The minutes of the monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve this week are also the focus of world attention.

　　"Major economies in the world have adopted financial assistance policies to stabilize business operations and residents' incomes, and increase quantitative easing monetary policies to stimulate demand and promote growth. However, these policies may have limited effectiveness when the epidemic is not fundamentally alleviated or lack of stability expectations. And lack of sustainability.” Feng Weijiang believes that in the second half of this year, the main risk facing the world economy may be secondary risks arising from repeated epidemics, such as prolonged epidemics causing social impoverishment and potential disorder and turmoil. To get out of the economic downturn, the fundamental way is to create a new domestic and global supply chain that is immune, convenient, flexible, and intelligent through an economic form supported by new technologies such as the digital economy.

　　Wang Yong also believes that in the second half of the year, due to the possible rebound of the epidemic, the world economy is still facing great uncertainty. "If a major breakthrough in the research and development of the new crown vaccine can be achieved, it will play a very good role in promoting investor confidence and the restorative growth of the overall economy. Of course, it is more important that countries around the world, especially major economies, take responsibility and strengthen solidarity. Together with the World Health Organization, the global epidemic can be controlled better and faster. At the same time, abandoning the Cold War mentality, promoting cooperation, and promoting economic globalization are the best way for the world economy to get out of the shadows."

　　Yan Yu