<Anchor>

Reporter Kwon Ae-ri, friendly economy, is on Tuesday. Reporter Kwon, I had a mixed expectation that the last two quarters would be the lowest point of our game, but in fact, I am a little worried about what will happen now. There are several reports on the long-term outlook for our economy.

<Reporter>

Yes, I am worried that the current corona spread is not so serious, but under the premise that we are preventing the corona relapse, Korea is considered as the country with the least hit this year in the world.

This is a story last week when the OECD released a report on Korea. Among the OECD member countries, Korea is the one that stands the best.

It was a very welcome story, but in fact, overall, the report also contained some concerns about the long-term future.

It gave the prospect that the vitality of our economy is structurally declining. It is an analysis that the potential growth rate of Korea over the next 40 years will only be 1.2% per year.

It is less than half of the annual average of 3% of the potential growth rate over the past 15 years. Even last year, Korea's actual economic growth rate managed to achieve 2%.

I was able to do better because the situation wasn't good, but I couldn't reach the maximum goal. In other words, it is like a student like,'I have a good brain, but my grades were not good because I could not study this year.'

Potential growth rate, the degree to which we can grow to a level that does not stimulate inflation while exerting the maximum in all of our sectors. This is because we thought that this is 3% so far.

In the future, it will be difficult for the OECD to come up with an estimate that even if Korea achieves the best it can do, it can only grow at a little over 1% per year over the next 40 years.

<Anchor>

Why did you say it looks like that?

<Reporter>

There are many reasons, but above all, aging, which is rapidly progressing, is considered the biggest factor. When we talk about economic growth, we see three main factors. One of them is people and labor.

However, we estimate that this year could be the first year of the population cliff with more people dying than people born as Koreans.

From the age of 25 to 49, the so-called core workable population is already declining 10 years ago. That is why the OECD has put out the advice that the Korean labor market has regularly given.

Since the aging is a fixed situation, policies to increase the employment rate of highly skilled women, such as women with career breaks, should be implemented and the job quality of the elderly should also be improved.And it is good for young people to have good vocational education so that they can enter the labor market effectively and quickly if possible. These are the tips.

It's a regular advice and I've heard it familiarly, but it's a desperate problem, and if you don't take it into account, the time when the real economic growth is getting harder is getting closer.

<Anchor>

I think we have to do something before it really comes to reality. How about?

<Reporter>

Yes, so, in addition to labor, private investment in the Korean economy must be revitalized. There are more and more voices that it is urgent to create an environment that promotes such things.

Yesterday (17th), a report from the Korea Insurance Institute specifically pointed out this point. Of the three factors necessary for growth, labor, which I mentioned earlier, is actually facing the biggest problem right now, so the other two factors, namely capital and Productivity becomes more important.

Of course, the higher the productivity, the better. However, it is very difficult to raise this quickly and visually.

So, it is the most realistic approach right now to raise enough capital by allowing private investment to increase even a little.

It is like a factory in which one of the three employees working in Korea in the near future will not be able to come out.

If so, you have to bring in the latest machines, so there will be a greater chance of maintaining at least the current production with the remaining two employees, and there will be a foundation to consider productivity in the future.

However, the report points out that this year, even if it is due to the corona, in fact, investment has been chronically sluggish in recent years.

The government is investing enormous amounts of finances to overcome the economic situation this year, and in the end, I thought that this public investment should be focused on improving the environment and laying the groundwork for revitalizing private investment.

Among the economic policies that the government is currently pursuing, he pointed out that the Green New Deal and the project to build eco-friendly infrastructure could provide opportunities for long-term investment in private finance as well.

[Lee Tae-yeol/Senior Fellow of Insurance Research Institute: As seen in Japan in the past'lost decades', if government-led investment fails to lead to the private sector, there are cases where financial soundness only deteriorates and potential growth rates fail to compensate. It can be seen that the expansion of our capital in the future depends on how active and prolonged private sector investment is.]