Historical decline in GDP Is it possible to quickly recover from the spread of infection and focus on it? August 23, 6:23
Since it was announced on the 17th, the growth rate of GDP (Gross domestic product) from April to June was a historic decline of minus 27.8% on an annualized basis. Private research firms predict that GDP will turn positive in the future, but the focus will be on normalizing economic activities and returning to a recovery track at an early stage while suppressing the spread of infection.
Since it was announced on the 17th, the GDP from April to June, due to the influence of the new coronavirus, the real growth rate compared to the previous three months was minus 27.8% in annual terms, It was the biggest decline beyond the Lehman shock that led to the financial crisis.
In July, the Cabinet Office estimated that the growth rate of GDP for the current fiscal year would be about -4.5% in real terms.
However, as a result of the historical decline in GDP, the Cabinet Office will see a growth rate of minus 4.5% this year unless it continues to grow at an annual rate of plus 13.6% quarterly for the remaining nine months. He showed a tough estimation that he would not even reach.
Meanwhile, regarding the growth rate of GDP from July to September, there are many predictions among private research firms that it will turn positive as the economy is recovering compared to the time when the emergency declaration was issued, There are also positive forecasts of more than 10% annually.
However, as the number of infected people increases again, the focus will be on normalizing economic activities and returning to a recovery path early, while suppressing the expansion.
Shinichiro Kobayashi, senior researcher at Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting, said, "I think we will turn to positive growth from July to September, but the amount of positive growth may be surprisingly small. If the economy stagnates after August, 10 We cannot deny the risk of extremely low levels or negative growth from the month to December."