Where did people go? The average annual net outflow in Beijing exceeds 100,000, and the net inflow in Shenzhen and Guangzhou exceeds 200,000.
Economic Daily-China Economic Net Beijing, August 16 (Reporter Ma Changyan) Population is the source of economic and social vitality. Currently, what are the new trends in China's massive population migration? A report recently released by the Ren Zeping team of Evergrande Research Institute pointed out that in the past four years, some places have changed from net population inflows to net outflows, some places have continued to expand in scale of net population outflows, and some places have developed relatively fast and "grabbing people". Larger.
The report shows that since the reform and opening up, China's inter-provincial population migration has experienced three phases, from "peacocks flying southeast" to returning to the central and western regions, and then to the coexistence of the re-gathering of Guangdong and Zhejiang populations and returning to the central and western regions in recent years. From the perspective of changes in the permanent population, from 2001 to 2010, from 2011 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2019, the average annual increase in the permanent population of Guangdong and Zhejiang was 1.71 million, 690,000, 1.31 million, and 830,000, 150,000, and 650,000, respectively. The three periods in Jiangsu were 510,000, 160,000, and 180,000; the central and western provinces such as Anhui, Guangxi, Sichuan, Henan, Hunan, Chongqing, Guizhou, and Hubei turned from a negative annual growth rate from 2001 to 2010 to a positive rate after 2011. Growth; the three northeastern provinces changed from an average annual positive growth from 2001 to 2010 to a negative growth from 2011 to 2015, and the rate of decline has expanded in the past four years.
From the perspective of population migration after excluding natural growth factors, the average annual net population inflow in Guangdong and Zhejiang in the past four years has risen from 140,000 and 70,000 in 2011-2015 to 760,000 and 460,000 in 2016-2019, respectively. Obvious trend of population re-gathering; Shanghai and Beijing have changed from a net population inflow to a net outflow due to strict population control in recent years; Shandong has been backward in economic transformation in recent years, and the average annual net population outflow has continued to expand compared with 2011-2015; the central provinces have been excluded Anhui has turned from an average annual net outflow to a net inflow, and the rest of the provinces are in a continuous net outflow state; Chongqing, Sichuan, and Shaanxi have continued to return population in recent years, of which the average annual net inflow of Chongqing and Sichuan in the past four years has exceeded 100,000; Northeast China The economy of the three provinces continued to be sluggish, and the scale of net population outflow continued to expand. Liaoning dropped from an average annual population inflow of 140,000 in 2001-2010 to 23,000 in 2011-2015, and an average annual net outflow of 50,000 in the past four years.
From the urban perspective, the population continues to gather in a few core cities. In the past four years, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Changsha have an average annual net inflow of over 200,000, and Beijing has an average annual net outflow of over 100,000. From 2001 to 2010, from 2011 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2019, among 337 units at prefecture-level and above, 155 (1 city with missing data), 134 (10 cities with missing data), and 120 ( (Data from 14 cities are missing), the proportions of net population inflows to cities were 46.1%, 41.0%, and 37.2%; the number of net population outflows in the three periods were 181, 193, and 203 cities, accounting for 53.9% and 59.0% respectively , 62.8%.
The three cities of Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou have attracted large-scale population inflows with active new economic industries and relatively loose talent policies. The average annual net inflows of permanent residents in the three cities in the past four years have reached 320,000, 280,000, and 270,000 respectively, compared with 2011- Both have experienced substantial growth in 2015. Changsha, Ningbo, Xi’an, Chongqing, Chengdu, and Zhengzhou have an average annual net inflow of permanent residents of more than 100,000 in the past four years; these cities are the core cities in the metropolitan area, and the cities have developed rapidly in recent years and have "grabbed people". Larger.
From a global perspective, the average annual population growth rate of the first and second-tier cities in the past four years was 1.33% and 1.06%, and the population continued to flow in but the growth rate slowed down; the average annual population growth rate of the third and fourth-tier cities was 0.43% and 0.36%. The population continues to flow out. In general, the proportion of population in first-tier and second-tier cities increased from 3.7% and 19.3% to 5.3% and 22.3% respectively from 2000 to 2019, and the proportion of third- and fourth-tier cities dropped from 30.9% and 43.5% to 30.6% and 41.3%.
From the perspective of urban agglomerations in the metropolitan area, there are 10 metropolitan areas with an average annual population inflow of over 100,000 in the past four years. Among them, the four metropolitan areas of Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhao, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan and Shanghai have an average annual net inflow of over 200,000. The six metropolitan areas of Changsha, Zhuzhou, Ningbo, Chongqing, Xi'an, Chengdu, and Zhengzhou have an average annual net inflow of between 100,000 and 200,000. From the perspective of the metropolitan area, in the past four years, the core cities and surrounding cities have had a net outflow of population, including the Harbin, Changji, and Urumqi metropolitan areas. The core cities have a net population inflow but the overall net outflow of the metropolitan area is Jinan, Nanchang, Shijiazhuang, and Qingdao. The other 7 metropolitan areas reflect that the core cities of these metropolitan areas have insufficient population attractiveness, and the population of surrounding cities mainly flows out of the metropolitan area. In addition, in recent years, Beijing and Shanghai have vigorously controlled people, with net population outflows from core cities and net inflows from neighboring cities; among them, the Shanghai metropolitan area has an average annual population outflow of 6 thousand in core cities in the past four years, but an average annual net inflow scale of 250,000 in surrounding cities.
Ren Zeping, Chief Economist of Evergrande Group and Dean of Evergrande Economic Research Institute, pointed out that population migration has a significant impact on the economy and society. The economic and social development potential of areas where the population flows into is greater. "People go with industry and people go to high places." Population migration is not only the result of economic and social development, but also a key element of economic and social development. The influx of population increases the supply of young labor and eases the pressure of aging; the influx of population increases the supply of talents and promotes innovative development; the agglomeration effect enhances the competitiveness of cities, and the influx of population expands consumer demand. At the same time, the population outflow areas are becoming more aging, and the pressure on economic and social development is obvious, which will increase the burden of pensions, seriously drag down finances and restrict economic vitality. In addition, the real estate market will become more fragmented when the population is clustered in large cities in the metropolitan area. In the future, the real estate market in high-energy regions with good economic fundamentals and population influx will have more potential.
The report also predicts that by 2030, about 80% of the 170 million new urban population will be distributed in 19 urban agglomerations, and about 60% will be distributed in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Chengyu, Central Plains, Shandong Seven major city clusters including Peninsular. From the perspective of cities and metropolitan areas, China is expected to form more than 10 (Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Wuhan, Chengdu, Nanjing, Dongguan, etc.) cities and more than 12 (Shanghai, Beijing, etc.) , Guangfo Zhao, Shenzhen Guanhui, Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuxi, Qingdao, Chongqing, Wuhan, Nanjing, etc.) 20 million metropolitan area.