Host Sun Hua: Yesterday, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in July. The press spokesperson said that since July, under the influence of a series of policy measures to coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, the proactive fiscal policy and the prudent monetary policy have continued to be effective. The economy has overcome the adverse effects of the epidemic and the flood, and continues Maintained a stable recovery trend, and major indicators continued to pick up. Today this report provides interpretations from data on industrial production and fixed asset investment above designated size, changes in sales prices of commercial housing in July, and retail sales of consumer goods.
Our reporter Su Shiyu
On August 14, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in July. The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, Fu Linghui, introduced at the meeting that the national economy continued to recover steadily in July. All regions and departments coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, production and supply continued to recover, market demand gradually recovered, and employment prices were generally stable. New momentum is growing, market confidence tends to increase, and national economic operations remain stable and recover.
Specifically, industrial production grew steadily, and equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew rapidly. The added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 4.8% year-on-year, the growth rate was the same as in June; the month-on-month increase was 0.98%. From January to July, the national industrial added value above designated size fell by 0.4% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points from January to June.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that from the data point of view, production recovered steadily in July, and the production PMI index rebounded by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month to 54%. High-frequency data also confirms that at the end of the month, the national blast furnace operating rate reached 70.3%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the same period last year; the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises increased by 11.7% over the same period last year. The value added of the manufacturing industry increased by 6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous month, supporting industrial value-added. In particular, the value-added of the automobile manufacturing industry in July increased by 21.6% year-on-year, setting a new high since October 2016.
Zhao Wei, chief economist of Kaiyuan Securities, also believes that industrial production was generally stable in July, the growth of the construction chain and automobile manufacturing chain further accelerated, and the mining and electricity, heat, and gas fell significantly. The industrial added value in July increased by 4.8% year-on-year and remained unchanged from the previous value. Among the major industries, manufacturing output grew by 6.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous value. In terms of sub-industries, the middle and upper reaches of black smelting, equipment manufacturing For mid- and downstream automobile manufacturing (especially new energy vehicles), output growth has accelerated further, which is consistent with the high prosperity of the construction chain and improved automobile sales.
From the perspective of investment data, the decline in fixed asset investment continues to narrow, and investment in high-tech industries and social fields has grown rapidly. From January to July, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 3,292.14 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed 1.5 percentage points from January to June; the month-on-month increase was 4.85% in July. In July, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 13.0% and 9.8% year-on-year, respectively, 8.2% and 5.0% faster than those of the above-scale industries.
Wen Bin said that the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has maintained a relatively high growth rate under the influence of strong demand, and the computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries have also maintained a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate of traditional manufacturing industries such as textiles has still fallen sharply. The total investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) fell by 1% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points. The increase in output of crude steel and other production in July indicates the improvement of infrastructure. The issuance of special treasury bonds of 1 trillion yuan has been completed, and the issuance of special bonds in the early stage has been accelerated, providing support for the source of infrastructure funds. The total amount of real estate investment completed increased by 3.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 1.5 percentage points. Recently, the real estate market has maintained a relatively high boom. The release of suppressed housing demand during the epidemic has led to a narrower year-on-year decline in the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of new housing construction and a narrower year-on-year decline in the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales. In addition, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate development funds has turned positive to 0.8%, supporting the growth of real estate investment.
Fu Linghui said that since this year, a series of proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies have played a positive role in investment growth. In terms of funding, the supporting role of fiscal funds for investment is increasing. The investment in place from January to July increased by 2.1% year-on-year, which has turned positive. Among them, state budget funds increased by more than 20% year-on-year, which played a role in driving the overall investment growth. Looking at the overall investment situation, the biggest feature of this year's investment compared with the past is that it did not take the strong stimulus of "flooding flooding". Promoting industrial upgrading and development is an important aspect of investment policies, and investment in the field of people's livelihood has also grown relatively fast.
Fu Linghui said that from January to July, investment in high-tech industries increased by 8% year-on-year, and the social sector increased by 8.7%. The growth of investment in education and health in the social sector both exceeded double digits. Among high-tech industry investments, investment in information transmission, software and information technology-related industries has grown relatively fast. From the perspective of relevant departments, the growth trend of investment in new infrastructure in the first half of the year was relatively good. The number of newly built 5G mobile base stations exceeded 200,000, including double-digit growth in investment in the information field. These investments will play a good role in stabilizing the current economy and in future development. (Securities Daily)