Economic stability and recovery continue to improve (new economic orientation)

　　Data source: National Bureau of Statistics

　　Graphics: Xinhua News Agency reporter Xiao Xiao

　　The added value of regulated industries increased by 4.8% year-on-year, the service industry production index increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment increased by 4.85% month-on-month... On August 14, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the July economic data at the press conference of the State Council Information Office.

　　"Since July, the proactive fiscal policy and the prudent monetary policy have continued to show their effectiveness. The economy has overcome the adverse effects of the epidemic and flood conditions, and has continued to maintain a stable recovery trend. The main indicators have continued to pick up." Fu Ling, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics Hui said that the economic operation in July can be summarized as two characteristics: one is the stable recovery of the economy, and the other is the continuous development of a positive trend.

　The growth rate of retail sales has turned from negative to positive for the first time this year

　　Production rose steadily. In July, the growth rate of industrial added value was the same as last month, and 60% of products and industries achieved growth. Among them, the growth of automobile and electronic pillar industries accelerated significantly. The service industry production index increased by 3.5% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points faster than the previous month.

　　Demand is gradually improving. In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods in July fell by 1.1% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the retail sales of commodities increased by 0.2% year-on-year, turning from negative to positive for the first time this year. In terms of investment, investment in fixed assets from January to July fell by 1.6% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points from January to June.

　　Foreign trade was better than expected. The total value of imports and exports of goods in July increased by 6.5% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 10.4%, a year-on-year increase for four consecutive months, better than expected. Foreign exchange reserves have stabilized at more than US$3.1 trillion, an increase of US$42.1 billion at the end of July compared with the end of June.

　　The trend of industrial upgrading has not changed. In July, the added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 9.8% and 13% respectively year-on-year, both significantly faster than the overall industrial growth; the production index of information transmission, software and information technology services increased by 13.7% year-on-year, which was also fast As the overall service industry grew, the modern service industry maintained a good growth momentum.

　　The conversion of new and old kinetic energy continues to increase. In terms of production and consumption, some new products have seen strong growth. Online sales, Internet education, and medical services have developed rapidly. From January to July, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 15.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated from January to June. From the perspective of the optimization of the supply structure brought about by investment, the investment in promoting industrial upgrading and improving people's livelihood has maintained rapid growth. From January to July, investment in high-tech industries increased by 8% year-on-year, and in the social sector increased by 8.7%. The growth of investment in education and health in the social sector both exceeded double digits. "These investments will play a good role in stabilizing the current economy and in future development." Fu Linghui said.

　　Market expectations are still improving overall. In July, the manufacturing PMI was 51.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.2%, and both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI were above the threshold for five consecutive months.

　　Fu Linghui said that market demand is increasing and corporate vitality is increasing, which is conducive to economic recovery. "From the second half of the year, the intensity of reform, opening up and innovation will increase, injecting new impetus into the economy."

　　Urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.7%, and the employment situation of migrant workers improved overall

　　In July, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.7%, which was the same as last month, and the employment situation was generally stable. The surveyed unemployment rate among 25-59 year-old employment subjects was 5%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month.

　　"With the implementation of the employment stabilization policy, the overall employment situation of migrant workers has improved." Fu Linghui said that in the first quarter, due to the impact of the epidemic, a large number of migrant workers stayed in place. With the continuous efforts to coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the resumption of work and production has achieved results. At the end of the second quarter, there were 177.5 million migrant workers, equivalent to 97.3% of the same period last year. In contrast, the number of migrant workers in the second quarter increased by more than 55 million over the first quarter. In July, the surveyed unemployment rate of rural migrant workers with agricultural household registration in cities and towns was 5.7%, down from 6.4% in April. "The total number of migrant workers is increasing, and the level of employment is also rising."

　　As the economic situation recovers, employment demand is also expanding, and flexible employment is increasing. For example, live streaming, mobile travel, and online retail have increased new types of employment, which have played an important role in stabilizing employment.

　　But at present, employment pressure still exists. In July, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 0.4% higher than the same period last year. At the same time, as college students enter the labor market intensively, the unemployment rate of persons aged 20-24 years old and above (mainly new graduates) is rising, which is 3.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

　　"The pressures faced by these key groups must be given high priority, especially some individual industrial and commercial households, small and micro enterprises are still facing many difficulties in their production and operation. We must implement the policy of assisting enterprises to stabilize jobs and drive the increase of overall employment." Fu Linghui said .

　Prices remain basically stable throughout the year, with foundation and conditions

　　Vegetable baskets and rice bags are topics of concern to the people. Especially this year, the flood disaster has aroused great concern for agricultural production and food security.

　　"Floods in the southern region have affected the yield of early rice. However, the sown area of ​​early rice has increased significantly this year. The current general judgment is that early rice is likely to have a bumper harvest." Fu Linghui said that this year's summer grain output increased by 0.9% over last year, an increase in annual grain production. Lay the foundation.

　　From the perspective of overall grain production, autumn grain accounts for more than 70% of the annual grain output. At present, 60% of the autumn grain is in the northern region, which is relatively less affected by floods. Fu Linghui said that in recent years, agricultural investment has increased, and domestic disaster resistance and mitigation capabilities have been enhanced. There are conditions and foundations for maintaining stable food production throughout the year.

　　There are enough warehouses and price increases are also moderate. Due to the flood conditions, the consumer price (CPI) in July rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which was a slight increase from the previous month. In general, it was still below 3%, which was a moderate increase.

　　Since the beginning of the year, the CPI has dropped as a whole, but the price increase of CPI has expanded in the past two months. According to Fu Linghui's analysis, food prices rose by 13.2% year-on-year in July, accounting for 99.3% of the total increase in consumer prices, which is the main factor driving the increase in CPI.

　　From a structural point of view, there are two main factors affecting the increase in food prices. One is the increase in pork prices. In July, pork prices rose by 85.7% year-on-year, affecting the increase in consumer prices by 2.3 percentage points. Second, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 7.9% year-on-year in July, affecting consumer prices by nearly 0.2 percentage points.

　　Fu Linghui analyzed that, on the one hand, the increase in pork prices is due to the gradual recovery of catering services as companies resume work and production, and the demand for catering-related pork has increased. On the other hand, the southern flood in July has an adverse effect on the production and transportation of pigs. Since last year, the production capacity of live pigs has been affected to a certain extent due to unreasonable restrictions on breeding. Governments at all levels increased the production capacity of live pigs in a timely manner. According to the survey, the number of live pigs has increased seasonally, but from the perspective of supply, the production and supply of live pigs are still in tight balance, and high prices will continue for some time. In addition, the price of fresh vegetables is mainly affected by short-term factors, and the growth cycle of fresh vegetables is relatively short, which will not have a significant impact on the overall price.

　　The most important part of food prices is grain. my country's grain production has stabilized at more than 1.3 trillion catties for five consecutive years, with sufficient stocks. There are foundations and conditions for maintaining stable food prices throughout the year. At the same time, the current year-on-year decline in the prices of industrial consumer goods, and the fact that there is no basis for the sharp rise in service prices, there is a basis and conditions for maintaining prices basically stable throughout the year.

　　"People's Daily" (Version 02, August 15, 2020)