Stable economic recovery in July: steady growth of industrial production, market demand gradually picking up

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 14th, in July, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year, the growth rate was the same as in June; the service industry production index increased by 3.5%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from June; The total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 1.1%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from June. Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in general, the national economy continued to recover steadily in July, and major economic indicators continued to improve. In the next stage, we will consolidate and expand the results of epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery, and strive to achieve economic and social development goals and tasks.

The growth of pillar industries has accelerated significantly

　　"Judging from the economic performance in July, it can be summarized as two characteristics: one is the stable recovery of the economy, and the other is the continuous development of a positive trend." Fu Linghui said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on August 14. .

　　Watch recovery

　　Production has risen steadily, and demand has gradually improved. In terms of industry, in July, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year, the growth rate was the same as the previous month; 60% of products and industries achieved growth, of which the growth of pillar industries such as automobiles and electronics accelerated significantly. In terms of consumption and investment, retail sales of goods increased by 0.2% in July, turning from negative to positive for the first time this year; investment in fixed assets fell by 1.6% from January to July, and the rate of decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points from January to June.

　　The employment situation is generally stable and price increases are moderate. In July, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns was 5.7%, the same as last month; the surveyed unemployment rate among 25-59 year-old employment subjects was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month. In July, consumer prices rose by 2.7% year-on-year, a slight increase from the previous month, but still less than 3%, which was a moderate increase.

　　The foreign trade situation is better than expected. In July, national imports and exports increased by 6.5% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 10.4%, a year-on-year increase for four consecutive months.

　　Look good

　　The trend of industrial upgrading remains unchanged. From an industrial perspective, in July, among the above-scale industries, high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 9.8% and 13% respectively year-on-year, which was significantly faster than the growth of the entire above-scale industries. From the perspective of the service industry, the production index of information transmission, software and information technology services in July increased by 13.7% year-on-year, faster than the growth of the overall service industry.

　　New development momentum continues to increase. Online sales, Internet education, and medical services have developed rapidly. From January to July, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 15.7% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points higher than that from January to June.

　　The market expects an overall improvement. In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 51.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.2%, and both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs were above the threshold for five consecutive months.

　　Food prices are conditionally stable

　　In the past two months, the CPI has increased continuously. Will it continue to rise in the future?

　　Fu Linghui pointed out that in July, the national consumer prices rose by 2.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over June. Among them, food prices rose by 13.2%, accounting for 99.3% of the total increase in consumer prices, which was the main factor driving the rise in CPI in July.

　　"From a structural point of view, the factors affecting the increase in food prices are mainly two aspects: one is the increase in pork prices. In July, the price of pork increased by 85.7% year-on-year, affecting the increase in consumer prices by 2.3 percentage points; the second is the price of fresh vegetables. The month-on-year increase was 7.9% year-on-year, affecting consumer prices by nearly 0.2 percentage points." Fu Linghui said.

　　Talking about the increase in pork prices, Fu Linghui said that, on the one hand, as the company resumed work and production, catering services have gradually recovered, and related pork demand has expanded; on the other hand, the southern flood situation has adversely affected pig production and transportation. Pork prices have increased significantly. "From the survey, the number of live pigs is increasing seasonally, but from the perspective of supply, the production and supply of live pigs are still in tight balance, and the high price will continue for a period of time, but it is unlikely that pork prices will rise sharply. Fresh vegetable prices are mainly Because of the impact of short-term factors, the growth cycle of fresh vegetables is relatively short, which will not significantly promote the overall price."

　　Fu Linghui pointed out that the most important thing in food prices is grain. China's grain output has stabilized at more than 1.3 trillion catties for five consecutive years, and grain stocks are relatively sufficient. A bumper harvest of summer grains was achieved this year, with output increased by 0.9% over the previous year, a record high. "In general, agricultural investment has gradually increased in recent years, and there is a relatively good foundation for stable food production. There is a foundation and conditions for maintaining stable food prices throughout the year."

　　"From the perspective of industrial consumer goods, the current year-on-year decline in the prices of industrial consumer goods and the substantial increase in service prices do not exist. On the whole, there is a basis and conditions for maintaining basic price stability throughout the year." Fu Linghui said.

Promote stable and healthy economic development

　　How do you see the future economic recovery? Fu Linghui believes that the recovery of growth on the supply side is supported, and a series of resumption of work and production policies and corporate relief policies continue to promote production recovery. In terms of total volume, industrial production has turned from decline to growth. In terms of structure, high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries have grown rapidly, and new products such as 3D printing equipment and smart watches have also maintained rapid growth.

　　"At the same time, demand is picking up rapidly. The decline in total retail sales of consumer goods in July is narrowing, and the growth in retail sales of goods has turned from negative to positive. The decline in investment from January to July has significantly narrowed, and its role in driving production has gradually increased." Hui said that there are many favorable conditions for maintaining stable growth throughout the year. The epidemic prevention and control situation is now stable, laying a good foundation for economic recovery. At the same time, macroeconomic policies have been intensified, such as an increase in the fiscal deficit by 1 trillion yuan, the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in anti-epidemic special treasury bonds, the financial system’s rational distribution of 1.5 trillion yuan in profits to various enterprises, and annual tax cuts and fee reductions of 2.5. Trillion yuan, these measures will play an important supporting role in the rescue of enterprises and the economic recovery in the second half of the year.

　　Fu Linghui said that in addition, the company's resumption of work and production has achieved positive results and increased vitality. The manufacturing PMI has remained above the critical point for five consecutive months. In June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 11.5% year-on-year. These are all conducive to economic recovery.

　　"Of course, we must also see that the global new crown pneumonia epidemic is still spreading, the international economic environment is severe and complex; domestic structural, institutional, and cyclical contradictions coexist, and development faces many difficulties and challenges." Fu Linghui said, the next step It is necessary to implement the "six guarantees" to promote the "six stability", promote stable and healthy economic development, and strive to achieve economic and social development goals and tasks. (Our reporter Qiu Haifeng)

　　"People's Daily Overseas Edition" (Version 03, August 15, 2020)