(Economic Observation) Overcoming the "Pinch Attack" of the Epidemic Flood China's Economy Continues to "Recover Lost Ground"
China News Service, Beijing, August 14 (Reporter Wang Enbo) The impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has not yet faded, and floods have brought new uncertainties. Under the double "strike", can China's economy continue to recover?
Chinese officials announced the July economic report card on the 14th, and many major indicators continued to improve. In the words of Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, China's economy has overcome the adverse effects of the epidemic and flood conditions and continues to maintain a steady recovery.
Looking at this fresh report card, we can find that China's current economic operation presents two major characteristics. The first is the recovery of economic stability, and various fields continue to "recover lost ground."
In terms of production, the trend of steady growth continues to consolidate. In terms of industry, the added value of industries above designated size in July increased by 4.8% year-on-year, the growth rate was the same as the previous month; in terms of products and industries, 60% of products and industries achieved growth, among which pillar industries such as automobiles and electronics grew significantly faster. In the same month, the service industry production index also increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous month.
It is worth mentioning that this performance was achieved on the basis of overcoming the adverse effects of the flood. Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that the value added of the mining industry in July fell by 2.6% year-on-year, which greatly dragged down the growth rate of industrial value added, mainly due to heavy rains in the south and floods affecting related industrial production. However, the added value of the manufacturing industry increased by 0.9% compared with the previous month, supporting the added value of the industry.
The demand side that has been more affected by the epidemic has also gradually improved. In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods in July fell by 1.1% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the retail sales of goods turned positive for the first time this year. In terms of investment, investment in fixed assets from January to July fell by 1.6% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points from January to June.
The deputy director of the CITIC Securities Research Institute clearly noted that, benefiting from the downgrade of epidemic prevention and control measures and the orderly recovery of production and life, offline sales in China are gradually picking up. In July, basic lifestyle commodities such as food, beverages and daily necessities grew steadily, and the sales of upgraded consumer commodities such as cosmetics and communication equipment improved significantly. In particular, policy incentives have led to a comprehensive rebound in automobile demand. In July, automobile consumption increased by 12.3% year-on-year, which was the second highest growth rate since 2017.
More importantly, while "recovering lost ground," China's economy is still further expanding its development space and improving the quality of growth.
In July, China’s high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 9.8% and 13% year-on-year respectively, both significantly faster than the overall industrial growth above designated size; the production index of the information transmission, software and information technology service industries increased by 13.7% year-on-year, which was also faster than The overall service industry grew. This reflects that the trend of China's economic and industrial upgrading has not changed.
At the same time, various new development drivers are also growing and accumulating energy. Under the impact of the epidemic, China's online sales, Internet education, and medical services have developed rapidly. From January to July, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 15.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was faster than that from January to June; including 3D printing equipment, smart watches, and smart bracelets Many new products are growing strongly.
However, despite the steady recovery of the national economy in July, the global epidemic is still spreading, the international economic environment is severe and complex, and the domestic structural, institutional, and cyclical contradictions coexist, China's development still faces difficulties and challenges.
According to Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, the biggest risk affecting China's economic operation is still external uncertainty, but the positive side is that since the second quarter, trade conditions have been better than market expectations. The trend of China's economic recovery is clear, and economic growth is expected to accelerate in the third quarter. The economy for the whole year will show a trend of low and high, and the focus of work in the second half of the year is on the implementation of macro policies.
When talking about specific policy directions, Wen Bin gave three key words: focus on key points, optimize structure, and prevent and control risks. He suggested that relevant parties should improve policy foresight, precision and guidance, and in particular increase support for key areas and weak links, continue to provide precise and inclusive support to small, medium and micro enterprises affected by the epidemic, and promote enterprises Reduce burdens, increase residents' incomes, and increase spending power and willingness to consume. (Finish)