Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, August 13th.  Financial Observation: Data from major economies under the epidemic is "red light"

　　Xinhua News Agency reporter Su Liang

　　"A record economic downturn" "the biggest drop since records"... The second quarter economic data of various countries have been released recently, and most major economies have "bottomed."

　　Behind the cold data is a large number of people's unemployment, income and living standards decline. Many analysts worry that if the new crown epidemic is not effectively controlled, the downward curve on the economic chart may continue.

Major economies "general decline"

　　The "climbing" process is slow, but the "falling" is out of a steep curve. Major economies that have been weak in growth in recent years have been hit harder than ever by the epidemic.

　　The second quarter data of major economies have been released recently. The UK's National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 12th showing that the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 20.4% month-on-month in the second quarter of this year, falling into the worst recession on record.

　　Prior to this, the much-watched U.S. economy had its largest decline since records began in 1947, and the real GDP in the second quarter fell by 32.9% at an annual rate.

　　Eurostat data shows that the second quarter GDP of the European Union and the Eurozone fell by 11.9% and 12.1% respectively. The most severe decline was Spain, with a decline of 18.5%; Lithuania, the smallest decline, also fell by 5.1%. The month-on-month declines in the European integration "engines" France and Germany reached 13.8% and 10.1% respectively.

　　In addition, countries such as Russia, Sweden, South Korea, Mexico, the Philippines, and Indonesia that have already released economic data for the second quarter have all suffered economic contractions to varying degrees.

　　In addition to GDP, other data also showed "warning" red lights. For example, the recently announced Japan's current account surplus in the first half of the year fell below 10 trillion yen in the first half of the year for the first time since 2015. Brazil's industrial production in the second quarter fell by 19.4% year-on-year...

Support people's livelihood to be "renewed"

　　Falling data makes policy makers annoyed; economic harm makes the people painful. The epidemic has brought about life and health concerns, and the economic downturn has further brought about worry about income and living standards.

　　Data released by the US Department of Labor on the 6th showed that as of the week of August 1, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States has exceeded 1 million for 20 weeks. In Europe, despite the extensive use of short-time work to prevent the unemployment rate from rising, the unemployment rate in Germany was 6.4% in July, which was unchanged from the previous month.

　　In terms of emerging economies, the unemployment rate in Brazil also rose to 13.3% in the second quarter, and the number of employed persons fell by 8.9 million from the first quarter, a decline of 9.6%, the largest drop since statistics.

　　The number of unemployed continues to grow, and relevant government assistance measures need to be "renewed." The two parties in the United States have obvious differences on the epidemic relief plan, and they are in dispute. While the wage protection scheme launched by the British government will end in October, many analysts are worried that there will be a larger wave of "unemployment."

　　In recent years, the service industry has grown globally and has become an important economic driving force. However, in the face of "social distancing" under the epidemic, industries such as tourism, hotels, and aviation are struggling.

　　The Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Vera Songwe, said on the 11th that some countries in Africa rely on tourism and hotel industries for economic development, but the epidemic prevention and control measures cause approximately US$69 billion in economic losses to Africa every month.

Scientific and cooperative construction of "certainty"

　　Although various economies have launched large-scale economic stimulus plans, the biggest feature of the world economy under the epidemic is still "uncertainty." Analysts said that countries are facing tremendous pressure to resume work and production. Only under the premise of preventing and controlling the epidemic can it be possible to turn "uncertainty" into "certainty" and promote stable economic recovery.

　　Neil Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, recently stated that the epidemic continues to spread rapidly in the United States, and that the current response measures in the United States are not effective and that "stricter lockdown measures" should be implemented nationwide. Control the epidemic.

　　Kashkari and Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, published an article in the New York Times that the United States will not achieve a strong economic recovery until the epidemic is brought under control.

　　"Scientific resumption of work and production" is what many analysts have emphasized when talking about the recovery of the world economy under the epidemic. The so-called "science" is to gradually resume economic activities under the premise of effectively controlling the epidemic. Many economists pointed out that due to proper prevention and control measures, China's steady progress in resuming work and production and continuous improvement in main indicators have provided useful inspiration for the global fight against the epidemic and economic recovery.

　　Scientific prevention and control of the epidemic and promotion of the resumption of work and production are even more inseparable from global cooperation. World Bank Vice President Jaira Pazarbashioglu emphasized that the international community must unite to promote economic recovery to prevent more people from losing their jobs and falling into poverty. (Reporters involved: Yang Hairuo, Gao Pan, Xu Yuan, Xiong Maoling, Gong Ruohan, Chen Chen, Zhu Sheng, Zhang Yuhua, Wu Hao, Zheng Xin, Yuan Mengchen, He Yuan, Yu Qianliang, Zheng Shibo, Fu Yiming, Wang Shoubao)