On July 11, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (referred to as "China Automobile Association") released the production and sales data of my country's automobile market in July. On the whole, my country's automobile industry continued its recovery momentum in the second quarter of this year, with production and sales indicators showing year-on-year growth. Among them, commercial vehicle sales increased by nearly 60% year-on-year, and new energy vehicles achieved positive year-on-year growth for the first time this year.
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, said that overall, the current automobile production and sales momentum is very good, and he hopes to continue.
Production and sales continue to show double-digit growth
According to data from the China Automobile Association, in July, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.201 million and 2.112 million, a decrease of 5.3% and 8.2% from the previous month, and a year-on-year increase of 21.9% and 16.4%.
From the perspective of cumulative production and sales, from January to July, the production and sales of automobiles were 12.314 million and 12.365 million, down 11.8% and 12.7% year-on-year, respectively, and the rate of decline was 5 and 4.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June.
Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Automobile Association, stated that in July 2020, as China has achieved positive results in the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and economic and social development, the overall recovery of economic operations has continued to improve, especially in various consumer promotion policies. Driven by, market entities have accelerated the pace of business and market resumption, residents’ out-going consumption has increased in an orderly manner, market vitality has gradually improved, and market sales have continued to improve. In this context, automobile production and sales continued the recovery momentum since the second quarter and maintained a good operating trend.
The data shows that from January to July, the sales of the top 10 enterprise groups in auto sales totaled 11.036 million, accounting for 89.3% of total auto sales, 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
"Large companies performed well," Chen Shihua said. Recently, car companies have successively released the latest sales data. Geely’s sales in July reached 105,000 units, an increase of 15% year-on-year; Great Wall Motors sold 78,300 vehicles at home and abroad, a 30% increase year-on-year. Among them, Great Wall Motors Export sales of 6,300 vehicles in July, a 75% increase from the previous month.
In terms of market share, sales of Chinese brand passenger vehicles reached 585,000 in July, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year. The market share also rebounded for the first time in the past four months, rising from the lowest 33.6% in June to 35.1%. The market share of German and Japanese brands continued to rise, while that of American and Korean brands declined. In terms of exports, my country's auto exports in July were basically the same as the previous month, at 62,000 vehicles. The China Automobile Association said that if the overseas epidemic does not recover significantly in the second half of the year, my country's auto export market is still not optimistic.
Judging from the inventory situation, the inventory pressure of auto companies in July further increased, from 972,000 at the beginning of the month to 1.085 million at the end of the month, an increase of 11.6%. Among them, passenger vehicle inventory increased by 12.4%, and commercial vehicle inventory increased by 9.5%.
"From historical data, in July this year, China's auto market production and sales reached a relatively high level during the same period in history." Chen Shihua also issued a reminder to the auto industry. From the perspective of industry development, although the production and sales growth momentum was good this month, the company's terminal inventory The growth is obvious, so companies should pay attention to inventory changes to avoid excessive inventory and increase the burden on enterprises.
Commercial vehicle performance is outstanding
In July, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 472,000 and 447,000, down 10.4% and 16.6% month-on-month, and up 70.3% and 59.4% year-on-year. In terms of vehicle models, passenger cars showed a double-digit decline in a single month, while trucks grew very rapidly, with sales increasing by 71.1% year-on-year.
The attributes of commercial vehicle production materials determine that its demand has a strong correlation with GDP growth and fixed asset investment. Under the influence of the epidemic this year, the pressure of economic growth has prompted a loose credit environment in China, which has allowed industries such as infrastructure to drive upstream commercial vehicles. Demand broke out.
Chen Bin, executive vice president of the China National Machinery Industry Federation, said recently that the investment product market recovered faster than expected, and the consumer product market recovered more slowly than expected.
Benefiting from the growth of commercial vehicle production and sales, commercial vehicle companies have also benefited significantly. A reporter from Economic Daily-China Economic Net learned from Dongfeng that Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd. sold 20,000 medium and heavy trucks in July, a year-on-year increase of 59.1%; from January to July, the cumulative sales of medium and heavy trucks were 126,600, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. The headquarters of Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. sold 14,600 vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 33.4%; from January to July, a total of 96,200 vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%.
New energy year-on-year growth rate turned positive
In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 100,000 and 98,000, respectively, up 15.6% and 19.3% year-on-year, marking the first increase this year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 79,000 and 78,000, respectively, an increase of 17.9% and 24.2% year-on-year; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 21,000 and 19,000 respectively, an increase of 7.8% and 2.7% respectively.
The latest sales data released by BYD also showed that its sales in July reached 31,300, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. After six consecutive months of sales decline, BYD ushered in the first positive sales growth of the year in July. In addition to the continued strong growth of the fuel vehicle segment, the recovery of the new energy vehicle segment is the main driving force.
"Such a large increase is mainly due to the lower production and sales base in July after the subsidy subsided last year." Xu Haidong said that based on the current new energy vehicles going to the countryside and the pressure of double points at the end of the year, new energy vehicles will be in the next few months of this year. It will maintain a relatively stable growth. The domestic new energy vehicle market is expected to sell 1.1 million vehicles this year. At the same time, he pointed out that among the 1.1 million new energy vehicle sales, Tesla's sales are expected to be around 100,000.
From the data point of view, from January to July this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 496,000 and 486,000, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7% and 32.8% respectively, and the rate of decline continued to be narrower than that from January to June. However, if you want to complete the sales forecast of 1.1 million vehicles, in the next five months, it will be necessary to complete the sales of 614,000 new energy vehicles, that is, the monthly average sales target value of 122,800 vehicles.
Chen Shihua said that a series of consumption promotion policies issued by the state are gradually taking effect and are beneficial to the long-term development of the automobile market; the consumption promotion policies implemented in various regions in the first half of the year have come to an end.
"I hope that local governments will introduce more policies with greater scope of benefit and more stable, and ensure that they will be implemented as soon as possible." Chen Shihua said that industry enterprises should pay close attention to changes in the domestic market and the implementation of national and local policies, and make timely adjustments. Improve the production and operation rhythm and steadily promote the high-quality development of the enterprise. (Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Liu Jin)