The retail price of pork at a stall in Liede Market.
National pork prices rose by 85.7% year-on-year in July
National fresh vegetable prices rose 7.9% year-on-year
National egg prices rose 4% month-on-month
On May 17, the average price of Guangdong hairy pigs was 30.2 yuan/kg. As of August 2, it had risen to 40.6 yuan/kg.
Recently, there have been reports that national pig prices have risen again. The reporter visited and learned that the wholesale price of Guangzhou hairy pigs has continued to rise since mid-May and has exceeded 40 yuan/kg this month. In terms of retail prices, the prices in different districts are slightly different, and the price of ribs in some markets has risen to 100 yuan/kg. "This round of pork price increase is mainly driven by consumption, but also boosted by factors such as weather changes." Industry insiders analyzed that in terms of consumption, as the epidemic prevention and control enters the normalization stage, the potential for pork consumption is accelerated.
How long will the pigs still rise? The Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Guangdong Province predicted in the "Analysis of the Production and Marketing Situation of Guangdong Province's Live Pigs in the First Half of 2020" that the supply of live pigs will continue to be in short supply in the third quarter of this year, and the supply will rebound in a moderate amount in the fourth quarter. There was a large increase in the quarter, and the overall market price in the fourth quarter will gradually fall and is expected to fall to 31 yuan/kg.
Text, picture/Zhang Lu and Zhao Fangyuan, all media reporters of Guangzhou Daily
This round of pork price increase is affected by consumption and weather changes
Yesterday morning, the latest price of a pork stall in Guangzhou Liede Market was announced on the wall. Mr. Bai, a citizen who came to buy vegetables, told reporters that the last time he bought pork at the vegetable market was two months ago because of the obvious price increase. "I changed to shrimp during this time."
Liede market manager Su Weiji said that the overall retail price of pork in the current market is about 70 yuan/kg. Since May, the purchase price has been rising slowly, and the overall pork sales have declined in the past two months. "We have 12 stalls, and we sell more than 10 stalls a day. We used to have almost no stock when we closed the stalls, but now we often can't sell them out."
Regarding the increase in pork prices, Su Weiji believes that the main reason is the decrease in the supply of live pigs and the reduction in frozen pork imports, which has led to a decline in the overall market supply.
"It has been up for nearly a month." Lai Xinyu, the owner of the sports east market hairy pig stall, told reporters that the current purchase price of the local pig hairy pig has risen to 42 yuan/kg, because most of the local pigs sold at his stall are local pigs. The increase is not too great. However, the price of lean pigs sold at other stalls from other places such as North China and Shandong has relatively large fluctuations. He said that because sales have fallen by half compared to the same period last year, he now earns 700 yuan to 800 yuan less per day. "The main reason is that we did not dare to increase the price. In the past years, the price of pork has risen, and the sales volume will also increase. In previous years, an average of two 300 jin pigs can be sold a day, but now only one pig can be sold a day.
Lai Xinyu told reporters that the recent hot weather and heavy rains and floods in the north have caused the transportation of live pigs to be blocked and large losses. Suppliers have reduced the supply of live pigs. "Northern pigs can't come, and southern pigs are expected to continue to rise." He said that if pig prices continue to rise in the future, he will have to raise prices.
Slaughter volume continues to decline due to reduced supply of hairy pigs
An employee of Guangzhou Maoshan Meat Union Factory told reporters that on August 10, the wholesale price of local wool pigs was 40.12 yuan/kg, and the price of non-local wool pigs was 42.12 yuan/kg. Judging from the current operation, due to the decrease in the overall supply of wool pigs, the market shortage has pushed up the wholesale and retail prices, and the slaughter volume has also shown a continued downward trend.
"Our factory slaughters mainly non-local pigs, mostly from pig farms across the country such as Hunan and Northeast China, and some locally from Zhaoqing, Sihui and other places. Before the epidemic, when the supply of hairy pigs was sufficient, the daily slaughter volume was more than 3,700. Now the daily slaughter volume is about 2,000." The employee said.
According to the quotation of Xinmu.com, the pig price index in Guangdong has fluctuated and increased since May 17 this year. On May 17, the average price in Guangdong was only 30.2 yuan/kg, when the national pig price index was 162.98; as of August 2, the average price in Guangdong had climbed to 40.6 yuan/kg, and the national pig price index was 220.78.
"This round of pork price increase is mainly driven by consumption, but also boosted by factors such as weather changes." According to industry analysts, in terms of consumption, as the epidemic prevention and control enters the normalization stage, the potential for pork consumption is accelerated.
prediction:
There are many favorable factors for stabilizing the "meat plate"
Supply will increase in November
Many people in the industry believe that the overall supply-demand relationship of my country's pig industry is still tight, but there are many favorable factors for stabilizing production and supply and stabilizing the "meat plate".
The reporter learned from the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Affairs that the city’s 18 newly renovated and expanded pig breeding projects have started construction one after another since January this year, with a total planned investment of more than 8 billion yuan. They will be completed and put into production in May this year. Increase the production capacity of intensive, green and circular pigs by nearly 2 million heads.
"The company is very active in the resumption of production of live pig supply and breeding, because the price of wool pigs is now at the highest level in history, causing all large companies with capital to expand their production." Xinmu.com, a long-term graduate student pig market analyst Li Dan said.
According to the statistics of Xinmu.com Xinzhupai, since 2019, a total of 10 large breeding groups including New Hope Liuhe, Muyuan, Wen's, Jingji Smart Agriculture, Haida Group, and Guangxin Holdings, a total of 26 pig raising projects have landed in Guangdong , Involving 15.92 million live pigs for slaughter, and strive to guarantee the planned goal of 33 million pigs for slaughter in 2020.
From the perspective of pig price trends this week, Ling Juege, the pig price analysis department of Xinmu.com, said that from the supply side, the supply in the north is relatively sufficient. The supply in the south is affected by floods and some epidemics, and the supply of live pigs is unstable; on the demand side, Liqiu Pork consumption may increase in some northern regions, but the country continues to increase the stock of meat, which is negative for pig prices to a certain extent.
Regarding the prediction of the live pig situation in the second half of the year, the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Guangdong Province stated in the "Analysis of the Production and Marketing Situation of Guangdong Province in the First Half of 2020" on its official website that the price of commercial pork hogs will have a large increase in the third quarter, which is expected to be high It will exceed 40 yuan/kg. As the supply rebounds in the fourth quarter, the overall market price will gradually fall and is expected to fall back to 31 yuan/kg.
From the perspective of supply, the pig stock will continue to recover. According to the data from the Guangdong Agricultural Information Monitoring System, the overall slaughter volume of pigs in the second half of the year will increase. It is expected that the supply volume in November will increase significantly, reaching 2.831 million heads, an increase of nearly 600,000 per month on average in the first half At first, the overall supply is still tight, especially in July and August when the supply is in a relatively tight position. In addition, the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Guangdong Province analyzed from the demand side that subsequent market consumption gradually recovered, coupled with the Mid-Autumn National Day holiday in the second half of the year and the traditional peak season for consumption in the fourth quarter, pork consumption is expected to rebound significantly.