Chinanews client, Beijing, August 10 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) The value of "Second Brother" continues to rise, "Rocket Egg" is back, vegetable prices follow the rise, and the national consumer price (CPI) year-on-year increase in July has expanded. . According to expert analysis, floods have pushed up the CPI, and it is expected that as seasonal factors weaken in the future, the increase in CPI may drop significantly.
CPI year-on-year growth chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics.
July CPI increased year-on-year growth
Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced on the 10th that in July, all regions and departments coordinated the epidemic prevention and control, emergency rescue and disaster relief, and economic and social development work, implemented the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and the overall market operation was orderly.
From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 2.7% in July, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices rose by 13.2%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points, affecting the increase of CPI by about 2.68 percentage points; non-food prices rose from 0.3% last month to the same level.
“The increase in food prices is the main reason for the expansion of the CPI. The large-scale floods in the south in July led to short-term vegetable supply shortages and price increases in some areas. Live pig transportation was also affected by the floods, and pork prices rebounded.” Bank of Communications Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center, told a reporter from Chinanews.com.
Specifically, in food, the price of pork rose by 85.7% year-on-year; the price of fresh vegetables rose by 7.9%; the price of aquatic products rose by 4.7%; the price of eggs fell by 16.6%; the price of fresh fruits fell by 27.7%. Among non-food items, the price of health care rose by 1.6%, and the price of transportation and communications fell by 4.4%.
"According to estimates, of the 2.7% year-on-year increase in July, the carryover impact of last year's price changes was about 2.9 percentage points, and the impact of the new price increase was about -0.2 percentage points." Dong Lijuan pointed out.
On July 28, in the Wal-Mart Zhoushuiqian store of Dongte Shopping Plaza in Dalian, there were sufficient sources of fruits and vegetables, rice noodles, oil, meat, eggs, and milk, and the market prices remained stable. Photo by China News Agency reporter Yang Yi
"Second Brother"'s value rose by 85.7%, "Rocket Egg " also came
In food, the price of pork increased by 85.7% year-on-year, an increase of 4.1 percentage points from the previous month, which was the main factor influencing the increase in CPI. Similarly, from a month-on-month perspective, the CPI has changed from a 0.1% decline in the previous month to an increase of 0.6%, which is also closely related to the month-on-month rise in prices of pork and vegetables.
"With the gradual recovery of catering services, the demand for pork consumption continues to increase, and floods in many places have a certain impact on the transportation of pigs. The supply is still tight. The price of pork increased by 10.3% month-on-month, an increase of 6.7 percentage points from the previous month. Dong Lijuan said.
The month-on-month price increase is also the price of fresh vegetables and eggs. In July, affected by unfavorable weather, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 6.3%, an increase of 3.5%; due to the decrease in the stock of laying hens, the egg production rate in summer decreased, and the price of eggs rose 4.0% after falling for 9 consecutive months. .
Recently, "the price of eggs soared by more than 60% in a month" hit the hot search. According to media reports, statistics show that as of July 29, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas across the country has risen to 3.99 yuan per catty, an increase of 1.61 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month, with a cumulative increase of 67.65%.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of eggs in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 8.33 yuan/kg on July 31, compared with 6.26 yuan/kg on June 30, an increase of 33%.
Data map: Supermarket employees are sorting pork. Zhang Yunshe
What is the future trend of CPI growth?
According to the "National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System" of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from July 31 to August 6, pork prices fell month-on-month and remained high year-on-year; egg prices rose sharply month-on-month; the average prices of 19 vegetables all rose year-on-year .
"As the number of reproductive sows bottomed out in the third quarter of 2019, pork supply will gradually increase. In the future, pork prices will still tend to fall and drive the downward trend of the CPI." China Merchants Bank Research Institute believes that the global economy is recovering weakly Under the circumstances, the prices of industrial products may be transmitted to non-food prices, and the effect of the domestic "wide credit" policy has gradually emerged, providing support for non-food prices.
"CPI will return to a downward trend after a short-term rebound in year-on-year growth, and prices may fall after the third quarter." Liu Xuezhi pointed out.
In Liu Xuezhi's view, the current increase in CPI is mainly due to the fluctuation of food prices due to seasonal factors. As seasonal factors weaken in the future, food prices may fall significantly. The recovery of weak consumer demand caused by the epidemic is a slow process. Non-food prices may still remain low and are expected to gradually stabilize and rise slightly in the future. Overall, the increase in CPI growth will be a short-term phenomenon, and it will fall back in the future. (Finish)