(Economic Observer) Why did China's export growth soar in July?

  China News Agency, Beijing, August 7th (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) China's exports have been "unpopular" again. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, China’s exports in July increased by 10.4% year-on-year in Renminbi, and the growth rate in US dollars was also as high as 7.2%. This not only sets a record since the outbreak of the epidemic, it is far higher than other major economies in the world, and is also a new high since March last year.

  Driven by the sharp increase in exports in July, from January to July this year, China's export value dropped slightly by 0.9% year-on-year, basically returning to the level of the same period last year.

  Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that the main reason for the sharp increase in China’s exports in July is that the industrial and supply chains of many countries have been hit hard. Even at the time of "shutdown", China's industrial system was the first to resume normal operation, and the competitive advantage of exports was further highlighted.

  The surge in exports of anti-epidemic products has also provided support for the rapid recovery of China's exports. According to customs statistics, China's textile exports including masks reached 634.32 billion yuan in the first seven months, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%.

  Another reason for the sharp increase in exports is that countries have intensively launched relief policies for residents and enterprises, which have played a role in stabilizing demand.

  According to official data, as an important leading indicator to measure the degree of external demand, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in July’s export orders for Singapore has risen from 33.5 in April to 48.4, which is close to 50, indicating the continued external demand. Pick up.

  In this context, the export of China's traditional superior commodities such as mechanical and electrical products has gradually recovered, and the overall export has been stabilized. From January to July, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products were 5.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2%, accounting for nearly 60% of the total export value. Among them, the export of automatic data processing equipment and its parts was 770.7 billion yuan, an increase of 6%; mobile phones were 419.54 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5%.

  Although the export data is “red”, considering the trend of the epidemic and the uncertainties in the economic recovery of various countries, China’s exports will still face long-term worries in the future.

  On the one hand, the epidemic may make a comeback in autumn. Recently, the epidemic situation in many countries has rebounded. The cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in Japan has exceeded 40,000; the number of confirmed cases in the Philippines and Indonesia is also on the rise; the number of newly confirmed cases in Germany has exceeded 1,000 again after nearly three months. Many experts warned that we must be careful about the second wave of the epidemic.

  "If the epidemic situation of major trading partners worsens, it will inevitably have an impact on China's foreign trade." Bai Ming said.

  However, in the view of Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the impact of the rebound in other countries on China's exports depends on whether the relevant country will again implement strict prevention and control measures. If there is no such thing as "closing the city" or "closing the country" and suspending a number of economic activities as it did during the first outbreak of the epidemic, China's exports would not be affected too much.

  On the other hand, as some countries that have a strong competitive relationship with Chinese goods pass the peak of the epidemic and gradually resume work and production, China's export substitution effect to other countries and export market share may return to normal levels, and then Weakened support for overall export growth.

  In addition, we need to be alert to the negative effects of the strengthening of trade protectionism in other countries. In recent times, Chinese exports have frequently encountered anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations, which has caused considerable trouble to enterprises.

  Especially in the field of mechanical and electrical trade, some countries that rarely initiated investigations on Chinese mechanical and electrical products have also used trade remedy measures.

  Gao Lingyun reminded that the impact of the epidemic on the society and economy of developing countries is far greater than that of developed countries, and China's trade with developing countries and emerging economies will also suffer a greater impact. In addition, the epidemic has intensified the trend of China's labor-intensive industries to transfer abroad, which has an inevitable long-term impact on China's exports. (Finish)