Economic Daily-China Economic Net, Beijing, August 8 (Reporter Ma Changyan) On August 6, the Central Bank released the "Report on China's Monetary Policy Implementation in the Second Quarter of 2020" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). The "Report" pointed out that the fundamentals of my country's economic stability, long-term improvement and high-quality development have not changed. The economy has evolved from the “supply and demand shock” brought about by the epidemic in the first quarter to the “rapid supply recovery and gradual improvement in demand” in the second quarter. The economic growth rate is expected to return to potential growth levels in the second half of the year.
The central bank stated that it will resolutely implement the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and that a sound monetary policy will be more flexible and appropriate. According to the phased characteristics of epidemic prevention and control and resumption of work and production, it will flexibly grasp the intensity, rhythm and focus of regulation and adhere to the policy of total volume. The three major determinants of financing cost reduction and support for the real economy are to respond to highly uncertain situations, support the return of economic growth to potential growth, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for the “six stability” and “six guarantees”.
"This judgment is very important for the choice of monetary policy. When the economic growth rate is close to the potential growth rate, it indicates that the economy is neither too cold nor too hot. Accordingly, monetary policy does not need to be loosened or tightened. If the monetary authorities believe that the next The half-year economic growth rate will return to near the potential growth rate. Then, monetary policy will reduce the intensity of counter-cyclical adjustments and even withdraw from counter-cyclical adjustments in an orderly manner, instead emphasizing stability and moderation.” said Political Commissar Lu, chief economist of Industrial Bank.
The central bank stated that in the next stage, it will adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, do a solid job of "six stability", fully implement the "six guarantees" task, and ensure the completion of the decisive battle and victory over poverty. Goals and tasks to build a well-off society in an all-round way. A prudent monetary policy is more flexible, moderate, and precise, to maintain a reasonable growth in the money supply and the scale of social financing, improve cross-cycle design and adjustment, and handle the relationship between stable growth, employment protection, structural adjustment, risk prevention, and inflation control, and achieve stability Long-term balance between growth and risk prevention.
Political commissar Lu stated that the forecast that "economic growth is expected to return to potential growth levels in the second half of the year" is reflected in the above-mentioned main policy ideas for the next stage. On the one hand, the "Report" changed the "stable monetary policy to be more flexible and appropriate, strengthen countercyclical adjustments, and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity" in the first quarter monetary policy implementation report to "stable monetary policy to be more flexible, moderate, and precise. ", deleted "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustment", and emphasized "precision." On the other hand, the "Report" changed the "strengthening the'six stability' work" in the first quarter monetary policy implementation report to "do a good job in the'six stability' work", and changed "increase" to "do a solid job." it is good".
In terms of inflation, the central bank believes that price increases have generally declined, and there is no basis for long-term inflation or deflation. However, the recent flood conditions may have some impact on the production and transportation of agricultural products. The rapid increase in money supply in developed economies may push up commodity prices in the future. In addition, the evolution of the global epidemic and the impact of prevention and control measures on the supply chain and industrial chain are uncertain. It is necessary to keep a close watch on the short-term price disturbances that various factors may cause.
In terms of real estate policy, the central bank stated that it firmly adheres to the positioning that houses are used for living and not for speculation. It insists not to use real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy. It insists on stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations, and maintaining real estate financial policies. Continuity, consistency and stability, implement the real estate financial prudential management system.
The central bank emphasized that in the long run, the fundamentals of my country's economic stability, long-term improvement, and high-quality development remain unchanged. However, we must also see that the world economy is in recession, with greater uncertainty and instability. There are still some structural, systemic, and cyclical problems in my country's economic operation, and the problem of inadequate development is still prominent. In this regard, we must have an objective understanding, a rational view, firm confidence, maintain determination, earnestly manage our own affairs, and grasp all tasks for economic and social development.
Regarding future monetary policy operations, Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, expects to continue to play the role of structural tools for precise drip irrigation, and comprehensively use tools such as RRR cut, MLF, refinancing, and rediscount to provide medium and long-term liquidity to promote integration The reduction in financing costs supports the reasonable growth of social financing. The current domestic economy is still in the process of recovery. Food and industrial product prices may rise in the short term, and the recent interest rate policy may temporarily wait and see.