Riding on the momentum to consolidate and expand the economic recovery results (authoritative interview)
——Interview with Ning Jizhe, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission
Since the beginning of this year, overcoming the adverse effects of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, my country's economy has steadily recovered. The economic growth in the second quarter was significantly better than expected, and it has taken the lead in the world in terms of epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery. However, the international environment is becoming more and more complex, and the uncertainty of instability has increased significantly. How to work hard to complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks? The reporter interviewed Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission.
●The fundamentals of China’s economic stability and long-term improvement remain unchanged
Reporter: In the second quarter, my country's economic growth turned from negative to positive and exceeded market expectations. How to view the current economic situation? Does this growth momentum have a solid foundation?
Ning Jizhe: Since the beginning of this year, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, the whole country has made concerted efforts to overcome the difficulties, and achieved significant results in the overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. Economic operations have steadily recovered, and work has resumed. Production improved month by month, and the economy grew by 3.2% in the second quarter, significantly better than expected. It should be noted that the current rebound in my country's economic growth has the foundation and conditions. The fundamentals of China's economic stability and long-term improvement have not changed and are showing.
The basic interruption of the spread of the local epidemic has created conditions for economic recovery. In the face of the sudden epidemic, the Party Central Committee insisted that the people are supreme and life is supreme, and led the whole party and the whole country to start the people's war, general war, and deterrence war of epidemic prevention and control, and realized the basic interruption of the spread of the local epidemic. On this basis, we adhere to the requirements of external defense input and internal defense rebound, and improve the normalized prevention and control mechanism to ensure that the epidemic does not rebound. These have effectively promoted the resumption of work and production of enterprises, ensured the gradual restoration of economic and social order, and promoted stable economic recovery.
The macroeconomic policies were timely, powerful, precise and effective to hedge the impact of the epidemic. Since the end of January and the beginning of February, a package of hedging policies has been planned. The policy for resumption of work and production alone includes 90 measures in eight areas. A series of policy measures such as increasing the fiscal deficit of 1 trillion yuan, issuing 1 trillion yuan of anti-epidemic special treasury bonds, reducing taxes and fees of 2.5 trillion yuan throughout the year, and promoting the reasonable profit distribution of the financial system by 1.5 trillion yuan are timely and effective. Strong pertinence, special deployment, reaching the grassroots level, directly benefiting the enterprise and the people.
The continuous release of the vitality of micro-market entities has promoted the recovery of economic stability. Macroeconomic policies act on various micro-market entities, especially small, medium and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, to help enterprises overcome difficulties, promote the resumption of work, production and production, and business and market resumption. Since March, the manufacturing PMI and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which reflect the confidence of market entities, have remained above the prosperity and decline lines for five consecutive months. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size that reflect the benefits of market entities increased by 4.8% year-on-year in the second quarter.
The gradual smooth flow of the supply and demand cycle has enhanced the sustainability of economic recovery. Since April, the production side has recovered vigorously, the value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size has been increasing for three consecutive months, and the service industry production index has been increasing for two consecutive months since May. The demand side situation began to improve in the second quarter, market consumption improved month by month, and fixed asset investment increased by 4.8% year-on-year. Firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, better release the potential of domestic market demand, and promote demand matching supply.
Reform, opening up, innovation and transformation have promoted new opportunities for my country's economic education. In the first half of the year, the reform of “delegation, regulation, and service” was deeply promoted, and important reform documents such as the "Opinions on Accelerating the Improvement of the Socialist Market Economic System in the New Era", and the Opinions on Building a More Perfect Factor Market Allocation System and Mechanism" were issued, which improved stability. The foreign trade stabilization mechanism for foreign investment has released the 2020 version of the negative list of foreign investment access. These measures have immediate results. In the first half of the year, the country’s daily average number of newly registered enterprises reached 20,000. my country’s exports fell from 11.4% in the first quarter to an increase of 4.5% in the second quarter, and the actual absorption of foreign capital changed from a 10.8% drop to an increase of 8.4%. The overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development has also given birth to a new pattern of new momentum and accelerated growth. New business formats are booming, and the pace of digital and intelligent transformation of enterprises has accelerated. In the first half of the year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and investment in high-tech industries increased by 6.3% year-on-year.
●We must combine aggressive offensive battles with protracted battles to complete the target tasks
Reporter: How to continue the steady economic recovery since the second quarter and lay a solid foundation for the realization of the annual economic and social development goals and tasks?
Ning Jizhe: At present, there are still many difficulties and great challenges in the operation of our economy. There are not only the impact of the epidemic, but also the contradictions caused by the intertwining of structural, institutional, and cyclical issues; there are both short-term and medium-to-long-term problems. We must combine aggressive offensive battles with protracted battles, take advantage of the situation, consolidate and expand the economic recovery results, strive to make up for the losses caused by the impact of the epidemic, do a solid job of "six stability", fully implement the "six guarantees" task, and ensure completion Decisively win the task of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and fighting poverty alleviation.
Maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies and improve their effectiveness. A proactive fiscal policy must be more proactive and effective, and a prudent monetary policy must be more flexible, appropriate, and precise, and policies such as employment, industry, region, investment, and consumption must be coordinated to form synergy. Accelerate the implementation of various policies that have been introduced and deployed, and continue to strengthen the policy pre-research reserve, prepare a "toolbox", and promptly release it when necessary.
Persist in stabilizing employment, stabilizing enterprises, and stabilizing the supply chain of the industrial chain. To stabilize employment, it is necessary to focus on key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers, and strengthen assistance to stabilize jobs and employment assistance. Make good use of various employment subsidies and unemployment insurance funds, and increase vocational skills training. To stabilize enterprises, we must implement various tax and fee reduction policies to ensure that the focus of new financing flows to the manufacturing industry and small, medium and micro enterprises. Take precise prevention and control measures to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the production and operation of enterprises. It should be noted that we will never help outdated production capacity and “zombie companies”. To stabilize the supply chain of the industrial chain, it is necessary to strengthen the cooperative relationship between the upstream, middle and downstream of the industry, strive to make up for the shortcomings of core technologies and key components, and strive to maintain the order of international industrial division of labor and coordination.
Firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand. With a population of 1.4 billion and more than 400 million middle-income groups, China has a vast domestic market. It is necessary to actively expand consumer demand, implement consumer policies, guide the direction of consumption, improve the consumption environment, and increase consumption capacity. To effectively expand investment demand, the focus is to make good use of the investment in the central budget, local government special bonds, and special anti-epidemic treasury bonds, promote the construction of "two new and one heavy", and increase public health, emergency material reserves, transportation and energy and other fields. Strengthen shortcomings, implement urban renewal, and accelerate the transformation of old communities in cities and towns. The coordinated development of urban and rural areas and regions is the greatest potential for domestic demand. It is necessary to thoroughly implement major regional development strategies, promote the construction of urban agglomerations and urban-rural integration, and continuously release the huge potential of domestic demand.
Unswervingly deepen reform and expand opening up. Deepen the government's own reforms, optimize the business environment, implement the "Regulations on Optimizing the Business Environment", and replicate and promote successful experiences in some places. We will implement the three-year action plan for the reform of state-owned enterprises, and carry out a pilot comprehensive reform of the market-oriented allocation of factors. We will further expand opening up, give full play to the role of various development zones in attracting investment, attract more foreign capital to invest in China, encourage and support enterprises to continue to expand import and export trade, help some export-oriented enterprises export to domestic sales, and support Hainan to build a free trade port with Chinese characteristics.
Resolutely fight the three tough battles. Consolidate the results of poverty alleviation in areas that have been initially announced, and effectively prevent the return of poverty. Focus on the remaining key areas and weak links, accurately implement various poverty alleviation measures, and achieve all rural poor people out of poverty and all poor counties under the current standards. Continue to fight the battle against pollution, promote the implementation of a number of major ecological protection projects in the Yangtze River and the Yellow River, and implement a ten-year ban on fishing in the Yangtze River. Pay attention to preventing all kinds of major risks, and keep the bottom line that systemic risks do not occur. We will steadily promote the work of protecting people's livelihood, strive to increase the income of urban and rural residents, and continue to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price stability of important agricultural products.
●More targeted measures must be taken to promote the development of private investment
Reporter: In the first half of the year, the growth rate of private investment was 4.2 percentage points lower than the growth rate of social fixed asset investment. In the second half of the year, how to stimulate the enthusiasm of private investment and strengthen endogenous motivation in stable investment?
Ning Jizhe: Private investment accounts for nearly 60% of the total investment in society and is an important force in stabilizing investment. In the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, stable investment including stable private investment has made positive progress. The rate of decline in private investment in the second quarter narrowed by 18.6 percentage points from the first quarter. The private investment in 11 provinces including Hunan and Zhejiang has achieved positive growth, and the growth rate of private investment in 5 provinces including Shanxi and Yunnan has exceeded 8%. However, compared with the overall investment, the growth of private investment is still relatively lagging, and more targeted measures must be taken to promote the development of private investment.
One is to further improve the private investment environment. Adhere to the "two unshakable" policy, earnestly study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the entrepreneurs forum, and actively encourage, support and guide private enterprises and private capital to expand investment. Taking the opportunity of the full implementation of the "Regulations on Optimizing the Business Environment", we will formulate supporting laws and policies, and make greater efforts to break the blockage and solve problems for private enterprises to invest and develop. In-depth implementation of the market access negative list system, breaking various forms of unreasonable restrictions on market access and "glass doors" and "spring doors". Optimize the preliminary approval process for reengineering investment projects, greatly improve the efficiency of approval, and accelerate the implementation of private investment projects.
The second is to increase policy support for private investment. Promote all localities to solve practical difficulties in private investment land, energy use, talent introduction, construction approval, and policy support. Implement the phased reduction or deferment policy for taxation, social insurance premiums, and housing provident fund for small, medium and micro enterprises to reduce various cost burdens and enhance private investment capabilities.
The third is to encourage private capital to invest in the market. We must take effective measures to expand domestic market demand, stabilize foreign trade market demand, and provide more market-oriented opportunities for private investment. Government departments, especially investment authorities, should continue to promote projects to private investment, and promote the normalized public release of projects with clear return mechanisms and great commercial potential.
The fourth is to support private investment in entering new areas. Encourage private capital to increase investment in areas such as "two new projects and one heavy industry". Support private capital to participate in the construction of shortcomings such as response to the epidemic, public health, warehousing and logistics, and emergency reserves. Support private enterprises to invest in the development of pig production and related industries, develop and promote the circulation of fresh agricultural products, participate in the recycling and dismantling of used household appliances, and participate in the energy-saving and environmental protection industries and other industries that currently require investment. Standardize and innovate to promote the PPP (government and social capital cooperation) model, and continue to attract private capital to participate in infrastructure project construction. Properly carry out pilot projects for real estate investment trust funds in the field of infrastructure, revitalize existing assets, and expand social capital investment channels.
The fifth is to improve the financing conditions for private investment. Support qualified private enterprises to issue corporate bonds for financing, support small and micro enterprises to issue credit-enhancing collective bonds, and broaden low-cost financing channels. Supervise financial institutions to make reasonable profits and reduce fees to facilitate the financing of private enterprises. We will implement the deferred debt and interest payment policy for small, medium and micro enterprises, and extend the extension of inclusive small and micro loans. Guide banks to introduce credit products adapted to the characteristics of private enterprises, and increase the scale and proportion of credit loans and medium and long-term loans.
Our reporter Lu Yanan