The new credit in the first half of the year has completed the full-year target of 60%. Manufacturing small, medium and micro enterprises are still the focus of support in the second half of the year
Moderator Liu Sihui: Recently, the People's Bank of China held a video conference for the second half of 2020. The meeting pointed out that in the second half of the year, we will unswervingly promote the steady and orderly opening of the financial industry. Today's report focuses on the central bank's work priorities in the second half of the year. Through interviews with industry experts and scholars, it further interprets the central bank's new RMB loans in the second half of the year, the direction of monetary policy, and the focus of bond market opening.
Our reporter Liu Qi
How is the progress in completing the new credit target this year?
The central bank proposed at the recent work video conference for the second half of 2020 that the new RMB loans in the first half of this year were 12.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.4 trillion yuan year-on-year. Earlier, at the 12th Lujiazui Forum held on June 18 this year, Central Bank Governor Yi Gang said, “Monetary policy will also maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, which is expected to drive an increase of nearly 20 trillion yuan in RMB loans throughout the year. "That is to say, in only half a year, this year's new credit has completed 60% of the target.
Where did the new credit flow in the first half of this year?
Zhang Wei, chief macro researcher of Kunlun Health Insurance, analyzed in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that from the perspectives of residents, enterprises, and finance, in the first six months of this year, residents’ short-term loans increased by 0.76 trillion yuan, compared with last year. Over the same period, there was a decrease of 0.24 trillion yuan; medium and long-term loans to residents increased by 2.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.05 trillion yuan over the same period last year; short-term loans for non-financial enterprises increased by 2.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.35 trillion yuan over the same period last year; Medium- and long-term loans to non-financial enterprises increased by RMB 4.86 trillion, an increase of RMB 1.38 trillion from the same period last year; loans from non-bank financial institutions in the first six months decreased by RMB 0.28 trillion, which was a decrease of RMB 0.07 trillion compared with the same period last year. yuan. It can be seen that the increase in RMB loans in the first half of the year was mainly concentrated in short-term and medium- and long-term loans from non-financial companies.
"In terms of specific industries, medium and long-term loans of enterprises mainly flow to the infrastructure industry and real estate industry, while the construction, manufacturing, and other service industries are behind, and the infrastructure industry is the absolute main force." Zhang Wei said. In terms of growth rate, policies to guide credit expansion in 2020 will focus on infrastructure, manufacturing, and small and micro enterprise loans.
Looking ahead to the new credit situation in the second half of the year, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, told the Securities Daily reporter that according to the total control target of nearly 20 trillion yuan in new loans this year, the new RMB loans in the second half will reach About 8 trillion yuan, this not only conforms to the general law of bank loans in recent years, but also reflects the determination of the supervisory authorities not to engage in flood irrigation. Manufacturing and small, medium and micro enterprises will remain the key areas of credit support. Under the policy orientation of supporting manufacturing investment, it is expected that medium and long-term loans to enterprises will continue to increase in the second half of the year. In the second half of the year, the growth rate of on-balance sheet bill financing of enterprises will be relatively limited.
Yuan Dongyang, a senior researcher at the China Chief Economist Forum, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that, in conjunction with the target of “expected to drive an increase of nearly 20 trillion yuan in loans for the whole year” put forward by President Yi Gang in June, RMB loans will be added in the second half of the year. High probability will have the following characteristics. First, the growth momentum will remain unchanged. The new RMB loans in the second half of the year should reach 8 trillion yuan, while the scale of new RMB loans in the second half of 2017, 2018, and 2019 will be 5.56 trillion, 7.14 trillion, and 7.14 trillion, respectively. Significantly higher than the same period in previous years; second, the proportion of corporate loans, especially mid- and long-term corporate loans, will increase significantly. As the environment improves, enterprises also need to increase investment and expand production, which will inevitably increase their need for medium- and long-term loans.
In terms of monetary policy, the central bank has stated that it wants to be "more flexible and appropriate," and it also emphasizes "precise guidance." Wang Qing believes that this means that the monetary expansion in the second half of the year will be more moderate, and the growth rate of M2 and social financing will be within the "reasonable growth" range of 12% and 14%, respectively. The "precise orientation" shows that credit and social financing will mainly flow to the real economy represented by manufacturing and small, medium and micro enterprises in the second half of the year. It is expected that in the next step, the supervisory authority will focus on tapping the potential of structural monetary policy such as "direct tools". Among them, around the central bank's re-lending, new policy tools may be introduced to accurately guide the flow of credit funds.
Yuan Dongyang believes that, while ensuring adequate liquidity, monetary policy in the second half of the year will focus on flexibility and effectiveness. Flexibility is mainly reflected in deciding whether to increase the money supply according to the economy's demand for funds, so as to ensure a steady decline in financing costs. Effectiveness is embodied in ensuring that existing liquidity is fully used, no idling, no arbitrage, or entry into restricted industries in violation of regulations. Precise guidance is an important guarantee for the effectiveness of monetary policy. For example, innovating direct-to-entity policies, by introducing liquidity orientation into relevant entities, can not only reduce monetary policy transmission links and reduce losses, but also ensure that relevant entities receive financial support. (Securities Daily)