[Explanation] On August 4, US Eastern Time, the international spot gold price continued to rise after rising above the $2,000/ounce mark for the first time. Spot gold once rose 1.6% to $2009.13 per ounce. In this regard, industry insiders analyzed that due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the global economic outlook is facing greater uncertainty, and the market's risk aversion is high, which is the main reason for the recent rise in gold prices.
[Concurrent period] Tan Yaling, Independent Economist, China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment
The main reason is the spread of the epidemic, especially in the United States and South America, where the expansion may be relatively fast, and now Europe is also rebounding. This psychology may be the reason for stimulating the rise of gold. In addition, the explosion in Lebanon last night was caused by environmental factors ( The panic caused by) has a greater effect. Including the US economy, the multiple factors of dollar depreciation are attributed to the characteristic of gold hedging, so it should be more obvious to stimulate gold prices.
[Explanation] Tan Yaling believes that due to the recent rapid increase in the price of gold, which has been at a historical high, there may be a risk of bubble bursting. Therefore, from a short-term point of view, the rising trend is not sustainable, and the price of gold may fall significantly.
[Concurrent period] Tan Yaling, Independent Economist, China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment
The faster it rises, and even one week its rise will reach 100 US dollars, which indicates that the market for gold will plummet soon. After all, it is going too fast and the irritating factors are relatively strong, which indicates that its own value may be at risk of overestimation and hype. Despite the stimulus of external factors, it has exceeded the structure of the actual market and its basic elements, because after all, gold is not the main investment channel, it is only a hedge and capital protection, so I think from the perspective of market liquidity , Its upward momentum should not be enough to support its stability in the future.
[Explanation] Although the price of gold has been rising all the way, the buying philosophy of many people is still "buy up, not buy down". Tan Yaling suggests that investors pay attention to the gold price trend in time, choose a reasonable price to enter the market, avoid blindly "follow the trend" and pay attention to investment risks.
[Concurrent period] Tan Yaling, Independent Economist, China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment
It can be confirmed that gold itself is in an ascending channel. But the current gold industry and the number of industries accounted for a very small proportion. So if it is a professional investor or a producer, he will evaluate it rationally. If you want to fight for profit and hedge, you still have to choose a more appropriate price and adopt an investment strategy. What you have to wait and see is the future callback interval, seize the opportunity to enter the market, instead of chasing (high prices) to enter the market now.
Lang Jiahui reports from Beijing
Editor in charge: [Li Yuxin]