31 provinces released their GDP in the first half of the year, and 16 provinces achieved "positive growth"
Beijing News (Reporter Jiang Huizi) Recently, the main economic indicators of 31 provinces in the first half of this year have all been released. With the improvement of the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the economies of various regions have shown a steady recovery. In the first half of the year, the economic aggregates of the six provinces exceeded 2 trillion yuan. The top three were Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong. Guangdong led the way with 4923.42 billion yuan. From the perspective of economic growth, 16 provinces have achieved positive growth. The central and western provinces occupy 13 seats. Tibet ranks first in the country with a growth rate of 5.1%.
Economic recovery is inseparable from investment, consumption and exports. Entering the second quarter, the three major demands have noticeably picked up, stimulating economic growth in various regions together. Tibet and Xinjiang, the top two GDP growth rates, also lead the country in the "double-digit" growth rate of fixed asset investment. Anhui and Jiangxi, the top two growth rates of total retail sales of consumer goods, have also achieved positive GDP growth.
GDP: 16 provinces are growing, and the central and western provinces account for 13 seats
From the perspective of economic aggregates, the top three are still Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong. Guangdong continues to lead the country with 492.342 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, the total economic output of 6 provinces exceeded 2 trillion yuan; the total economic output of 19 provinces exceeded 1 trillion yuan.
From the perspective of economic growth, 16 provinces achieved positive GDP growth in the first half of the year, an increase of 15 over the first quarter. Among them, the central and western provinces occupy 13 seats, and the economic growth rate of 7 provinces exceeds 1%. Tibet ranked first in the country with a growth rate of 5.1%; Xinjiang ranked second with a growth rate of 3.3%.
Among the three northeastern provinces, Jilin performed the best in the first half of the year. The GDP growth rate rose from -6.6% in the first quarter to -0.4%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 6.2 percentage points, much higher than Heilongjiang (-4.9%) and Liaoning (-3.9) %).
Due to the worst impact of the epidemic, Hubei's economic growth rate in the first half of the year was -19.3%, the lowest in the country. However, as the city was unblocked and the resumption of work and production accelerated in an orderly manner, Hubei's economy showed strong stamina. In the first half of the year, economic growth rebounded the most among the 31 provinces, and the rate of decline narrowed by 19.9 percentage points from the first quarter.
Interpretation: After the epidemic is brought under control, the economy will gradually become normal
The reporter combed and found that among the 19 provinces with a total economic volume of more than 1 trillion yuan, 10 provinces had positive economic growth, and only Hunan had a growth rate of more than 1%. The remaining six provinces with growth rates exceeding 1% are in the second half of the total list.
Analyzing the reasons, Jia Kang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, believes that the impact of the epidemic is the most important factor, and provinces with better economic growth rates are generally less impacted by the epidemic. Provinces with larger volumes and better structures have been hit hard by service industries that account for a higher proportion of the economic structure, such as stores, restaurants, and theaters. This affects the overall economic data performance, and it will take some time to recover after the epidemic.
"However, this situation will gradually converge. After the epidemic is brought under control, the economic performance will gradually approach the normal state." Jia Kang said.
Jia Kang believes that, judging from the situation in various places in the first half of the year, the overall economic recovery speed is in line with expectations. In the first half of the year, the number of provinces that achieved positive economic growth has increased from one in the first quarter to 16, which shows that the negative growth in the first quarter is just a short-term phenomenon under the superposition of multiple factors.
At present, the main wave of short-term shocks has passed, and certainty can be seen in the uncertainty. It is an inevitable trend for the economic operation in 2020 to shift from "low before" to "high after". In the long run, although there are still many uncertainties from the short-term to the medium- and long-term, the judgment that "the long-term trend of China's economy remains unchanged" is really objectively based.
Consumption: The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in 31 provinces is negative
The total retail sales of consumer goods reflecting the consumption situation remained negative in the first half of the year, down 11.4% year-on-year. However, the rate of decline continued to narrow, with the total retail sales of consumer goods in June falling 1.8% year-on-year.
In terms of provinces, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in 31 provinces was negative. Hubei dropped by 34.1% year-on-year, and Heilongjiang, Tianjin, and Jilin dropped by 22.7%, 21.7% and 20% respectively. In addition, there are 12 provinces with a double-digit decline. Anhui, Jiangxi, and Fujian performed the best with a decline of 3.5%, 4.2% and 5.4% respectively.
However, the warmth of the consumption recovery can be seen from the monthly data. In the second quarter of Anhui, the total retail sales of consumer goods changed from a decline of 11.9% in the first quarter to an increase of 5.1%. Among them, the retail sales of limited consumer goods in April, May, and June increased by 10%, 12% and 7.9% respectively. The Anhui Provincial Statistics Bureau stated that the consumer market has gradually entered a stage of sustained growth.
The total retail sales of consumer goods in Jiangxi increased by 7.0% in June, 5.4 and 7.8 percentage points higher than that in April and May respectively, showing an accelerated recovery trend. Among them, the retail sales of units above designated size achieved an increase of 12.7%, which was only 0.2% lower than the same period last year, and basically returned to normal levels.
Interpretation: repeated small-scale epidemics have little impact on consumption
New consumption rose against the trend, providing support for the steady recovery of consumption.
In the first half of the year, the online retail sales of wholesale and retail enterprises in Anhui increased by 38.7% year-on-year, 5.2 percentage points faster than in the first quarter; the hotel and catering companies on the Internet achieved a 58.8% increase in meal income through the Internet, an acceleration of 15.6%.
In the first half of the year, Jiangxi’s retail sales of upper-limit units achieved 13.827 billion yuan through public networks, an increase of 34.7%, which was 36.6 percentage points higher than the increase in retail sales of upper-limit units. The proportion of retail sales above the limit was 10.0%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from the same period last year.
At the same time, traditional agglomeration consumption is steadily picking up along with the orderly relaxation of prevention and control restrictions.
According to data provided by Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment, as of mid-July, the resumption rate of enterprises above designated size in various retail formats exceeded 96%, and the catering and night markets continued to rebound. The country’s rural tourism resumption rate as a whole reached 90%, and the theater resumption rate rose from 8.1% on July 20 to 46.5% on July 26. Since the resumption of work a week ago, the total box office has reached approximately 113 million yuan, reaching approximately 9.84% in the same period last year. .
In terms of specific measures, Beijing has recently restarted the "consumption season" activities and issued consumer coupons again in many places. In addition, there are many policy blessings for automobile consumption.
Lian Ping believes that although small-scale outbreaks occurred in some areas in July, the overall impact on the growth of retail sales of consumer goods has not been significant. The recovery of concentrated consumption may enhance the overall rebound in consumption, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in July may turn from negative to positive.
Real estate: Real estate investment growth in most provinces is lower than last year
Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the national property market is in a downturn. It was not until June that relevant indicators showed a warming up. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, real estate development investment "turned from a decline to an increase," an increase of 1.9% year-on-year, and a decrease of 0.3% from January to May. Among them, residential investment increased by 2.6%, and the growth rate accelerated by 2.6 percentage points.
Among the 28 provinces that have announced the growth rate of real estate investment in the first half of the year, the growth rates of Hubei, Hainan, Tianjin, and Liaoning were negative, at -38.3%, -10.2%, -6.3% and -0.6% respectively. The investment growth rate was as high as 56.1%, ranking first in the country. Ningxia, Jilin and Yunnan also maintained double-digit growth.
Except for Hubei, which has been severely affected by the epidemic, and the data is different from the usual, Tibet continues to maintain the past trend of small total volume but top growth rate; Hainan is still the province with the lowest real estate investment growth rate except Hubei. The growth rate of the remaining provinces fluctuated relatively smoothly, and overall it was slightly lower than the same period last year.
"Whether real estate will become the starting point for economic recovery after the epidemic?" This topic has been hotly discussed in the early post-epidemic period.
The recent Politburo meeting made it clear once again that "the house is for living, not for speculation." The real estate work seminar held on July 24 also proposed that real estate should not be used as a short-term economic stimulus method, and that land prices, housing prices, and expectations should be stabilized. Policies are implemented in different cities and one city is one policy. Based on the actual situation of each region, we will adopt differences. Chemical control measures.
Interpretation: real estate is not the main force, nor will it shrink too much
The reporter noted that the current regulatory policies in various regions have maintained a certain degree of difference. The cities that tightened in July include Shenzhen, Ningbo, Nanjing, Dongguan and other places, while Changchun and other places have gradually relaxed their purchase restrictions.
Under the background of "housing to live without speculation", how to understand the role of real estate in this round of economic recovery? In Yu Miaojie's view, real estate will not be the main force driving China's economic growth, but it will not shrink too much, but will play a positive role in driving the economy in this round of economic recovery.
Lian Ping also believes that the overall real estate market has been operating relatively smoothly in recent years. Although there are still some structural problems, such as rapid price increases in some local areas, market price fluctuations are relatively flat from an overall perspective.
Analyzing the trend, Lian Ping believes that, on the whole, market demand is further recovering. The real estate industry will be in a short-cycle rising stage from this year to next year. Together with the advancement of economic recovery and the steady and loose monetary policy, the real estate market will recover in the second half Can be expected.
Specifically, as the macro policy tone is still in the counter-cyclical adjustment stage, under the tone of insisting on “policy by city”, it is expected that the decline in real estate sales will gradually narrow in the second half of the year, and it is expected to achieve positive growth throughout the year. Real estate investment continues to rise, driven by the growth in land purchases and a relatively friendly financing environment. Policies have been tightened in some areas, and the increase in housing prices is generally controllable.
Investment: 22 provinces have achieved positive growth in fixed asset investment
In the first half of the year, 22 provinces achieved positive growth in fixed asset investment, an increase of 8 from January to May. From the data point of view, Tibet and Xinjiang, the top two GDP growth rates, also lead the country in the "double digit" growth rate of fixed asset investment.
In the first half of the year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in Jilin "turned from negative to positive", a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, an increase of 12.9 percentage points from the same period last year, 10.9 percentage points higher than the country, and ranking fourth in the country. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods, which reflects consumption, has slowed by 7.3 percentage points compared with the first quarter, but the rate of decline still reached 20%.
Yu Miaojie, deputy dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, judged that the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth will decline this year, and exports will show a flat or slow growth trend, and the upward effect will not be strong. Under such circumstances, to ensure a moderate economic growth throughout the year, one must rely on effective investment.
Jia Kang also believes that consumption is indeed the purpose and destination of all economic activities including investment, but if there is no effective investment, consumption will fall into the dilemma of "water without a source, wood without a root".
Interpretation: "Two New and One Heavy" play an important role in stabilizing employment
The investment structure is showing new characteristics, and local investment is accelerating the flow of "two new and one heavy" (new infrastructure, new urbanization, transportation, water conservancy and other major projects) and high-tech industries.
As a new word in this year's government work report, the macro policy is to accumulate power for the "two new and one heavy". This year, local government special bonds will be arranged at 3.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year. They will be used to expand effective investment and focus on supporting the “two new and one heavy” construction that not only promotes consumption and benefits people’s livelihood, but also adjusts the structure and increases stamina.
Yu Miaojie believes that the "Two New and One Heavy" will play an important role in driving the development of related industries and increasing employment. For example, this year, new construction projects have started to renovate 39,000 old communities in cities and towns, involving nearly 7 million residents, and it is expected to drive investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. At the same time, the transformation of old communities in cities and towns will significantly boost upstream and downstream related industries and provide employment opportunities for these industries.
Beijing News reporter Jiang Huizi, drafting intern Xie Yanbing