France recorded a historic plunge of 13.8% of its gross domestic product in the second quarter due to the coronavirus epidemic, Insee announced Friday. Since it measures French economic activity on a quarterly basis, the National Institute of Statistics has never recorded such a collapse. It also revised its measure of activity in the first quarter, which fell 5.9%, down from the 5.3% previously reported.
The fall in activity in the second quarter is however less than what most analysts and INSEE itself expected, which still estimated it at 17% in June. In detail, household consumption, the main component of growth, fell by 11%, investments by 17.8% and exports by 25.5%. "The negative evolution of GDP in the first half of 2020 is linked to the cessation of" non-essential "activities in the context of the containment put in place between mid-March and early May", explains the institute in a press release.
A very big rebound expected in the third quarter
"The gradual lifting of restrictions leads to a gradual resumption of economic activity in May and then June, after the low point reached in April," continues INSEE. The largest quarterly decline in GDP before the coronavirus crisis was recorded in the second quarter of 1968, affected by the general strike in May, but which was followed by a rebound of + 8% in the summer.
The rise should this time be all the more vigorous as the tumble was abysmal: Insee has forecast + 19% for the third quarter, Natixis + 16% and the Banque de France + 14%.
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